海角大神

The opening montage of President Joe Biden鈥檚 reelection campaign video says it all: wordless footage from the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, tear gas spewing, Trump flags flying.聽

The message of the video, released early Tuesday, is hardly subtle. Reelect the previous president, and the whole MAGA ethos 鈥� Make America Great Again 鈥� will consume the nation, in spirit if not literally, President Biden is suggesting.聽

This campaign is about 鈥渇reedom,鈥� he says 鈥� women鈥檚 rights, LGBTQ+ rights, a secure retirement, and 鈥渘o鈥� to book banning.聽

But the nascent 2024 contest is about so much more.聽He鈥檚 not running in a vacuum. Major polls suggest that, as of now, a rematch of Mr. Biden and former President Donald Trump is the likeliest scenario. If that plays out, they would again be the oldest pairing ever in an American presidential campaign, and for the octogenarian Mr. Biden, in particular, the age issue looms large.

The 鈥渟oft launch鈥� of his 2024 campaign 鈥� with a highly produced video, not an in-person rally 鈥� foretells a reelection effort that will work hard to minimize Mr. Biden鈥檚 liabilities while emphasizing his perceived strengths.聽聽

He plans to run on his record: major legislation that passed with narrow Democratic control of Congress, including infrastructure investments, climate change mitigation measures, lowered health care costs for some, and higher corporate taxes.聽

But the real game changer for Mr. Biden鈥檚 prospects, analysts say, is last November鈥檚 midterm elections, when Democrats defied history and kept a 鈥渞ed wave鈥� at bay. Usually, the party that controls the White House loses big in the midterms. This time, Democrats lost control of the House by just a handful of seats and expanded their narrow Senate majority.聽

鈥淭he midterms changed the conversation,鈥� says Julian Zelizer, a presidential historian at Princeton University. 鈥淚t was not normal. They went very well for the Democrats.鈥澛�

The party was also helped by the Supreme Court鈥檚 June 2022 overturning of nationwide abortion rights, energizing women and young voters. As of now, with reproductive rights determined state by state, Mr. Biden and his party also stand to benefit from this incendiary issue.

The unexpected could intervene

But events could intervene. A long-expected recession could undermine Mr. Biden鈥檚 reelection prospects like no other issue, and an international crisis could also be highly damaging. The last one-term presidencies, those of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, were harmed especially by economic woes, and in former President Carter鈥檚 case, the Iran hostage crisis.聽

鈥淭here are two things we can鈥檛 predict with any poll or turnout model鈥� 鈥� the economy and international events, says Susan MacManus, professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida.聽

A recession has long been projected, Dr. MacManus notes, and the Biden administration鈥檚 efforts to steer consumers into electric cars could make matters worse, as a sign of economic overreach. Incidents sparked by foreign adversaries, such as the Chinese spy balloon that drifted across the country earlier this year, could also be harmful to Mr. Biden as Election Day draws closer.

Hanging over the next election, too, is a sense of weariness and resignation that the standard-bearers of 2020 鈥� already blasts from the past 鈥� could dominate the 2024 cycle. The latest Yahoo/YouGov poll found that 鈥渆xhaustion鈥� is the top emotion voters feel about a Biden-Trump rematch.聽

In 2020, Mr. Biden won because he wasn鈥檛 Mr. Trump. If the former president is the 2024 nominee, the same could happen.聽

Ironically, the Republican who seems to have a better shot at beating Mr. Biden in the 2024 general election is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 鈥撀燼nd yet as of now, Mr. Trump beats the Florida governor in the Republican primary, recent polls show.聽

The latest Wall Street Journal poll now has Mr. Trump beating Governor DeSantis handily in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in the primaries, 51% to 38%, a reversal of the 14 percentage point advantage the Florida governor had in December.聽

But in a general election contest against Mr. Biden, Mr. DeSantis seems to be the stronger candidate. A recent poll by Public Opinion Strategies shows Mr. DeSantis beating Mr. Biden in the battleground states of Arizona and Pennsylvania, while Mr. Biden would beat Mr. Trump in those states.聽

鈥淣ow the so-called devil-haters are leaning heavily toward Biden,鈥� says former Republican strategist Dan Schnur, now an independent. 鈥淚n other words, Biden doesn鈥檛 have to get these voters to like him, as long as he can remind them why they can鈥檛 stand Trump.鈥澛�

Yearning for new faces

Mr. Biden鈥檚 challenges involve his age, stamina, and record, including economic struggles for voters who can鈥檛 afford to pay higher prices for food, gas, and housing. All incumbents run on their record, but 2024 could effectively pit two incumbents against each other, amid fresh memories of Mr. Trump鈥檚 controversial presidency.

Voters seem to be yearning for new faces, leaders who understand the challenges of modern life. But Mr. Biden, in signaling for months that he will run for reelection, has earned the deference of the next generation, including Democrats like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. No major Democrats have announced against him. After all, he beat Mr. Trump in 2020.

Among Republicans, Mr. Trump鈥檚 prospects for 2024 seemed to be waning until his recent indictment in New York over hush-money payments to a porn star. Even GOP opponents of the former president, including Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, defended him on the charge, and among the president鈥檚 wider base, renewed cries of 鈥渨itch hunt鈥� resonated. Soft supporters came back to the Trump fold.聽

All of this begs a question: Does Team Biden want to run against Mr. Trump, on the theory that he鈥檇 be easier to beat? That was the theory among Democrats in 2016, when the businessman and former reality TV star defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a shocker. Even Mr. Trump himself seemed surprised that he won.聽

Mr. Biden鈥檚 political advisers have long been preparing for the possibility of a rematch with Mr. Trump, according to a source with ties to the president鈥檚 team. But is Mr. Trump their preferred opponent?聽

鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 go that far,鈥� says the source. No Democrat wants a repeat of 2016.