海角大神

All the familiar trappings were there: The gilded ballroom at Mar-a-Lago. The walk-on music. The coterie, from 鈥淢y Pillow guy鈥� Mike Lindell to Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene to Donald Trump Jr.聽

Former President Donald Trump鈥檚 speech at his Florida estate Tuesday night, following that day鈥檚 trip to Manhattan for his unprecedented criminal arraignment, was effectively the real launch of his 2024 presidential campaign.聽

Unlike his actual hourlong campaign announcement last November 鈥� also at Mar-a-Lago 鈥� this address lasted just 25 minutes, short by Trump standards.聽

Maybe Mr. Trump was trying to demonstrate discipline. After all, he made it through the New York legal proceedings Tuesday in uncharacteristically low-key fashion. Or maybe he was just tired after a long day in which he was formally arrested for 34 felony counts of bookkeeping fraud over hush payments to a porn star, and was instructed by a judge to cool his rhetoric before his next court appearance, scheduled for December. Mr. Trump declared himself 鈥渘ot guilty鈥� of the charges.聽聽

From his supporters鈥� perspective, the proverbial 鈥渨itch hunt鈥� has now advanced to a new level. And that鈥檚 reflected in the polls. The former president鈥檚 support among Republicans had been flagging against his presumed top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, before news of his pending indictment broke.聽

But since March 24, his average support among GOP voters in polls for the 2024 presidential nomination has spiked to 51%, 14 percentage points ahead of Governor DeSantis, who is expected to run but has yet to announce.聽

Mr. Trump has also seen a spike in fundraising. Since a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him last Thursday, his campaign has raised聽more than $8 million.

Many Republicans are defending Mr. Trump,聽even some who see him as 鈥渦nfit for office,鈥澛燼s GOP Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah put it Tuesday.聽In his statement,聽Senator Romney said 鈥渢he New York prosecutor has stretched to reach felony criminal charges in order to fit a political agenda.鈥�

Still, it鈥檚 early in the 2024 cycle. The Iowa caucuses 鈥� the traditional start of the Republican presidential nomination process 鈥� are about 300 days away. And over the long term, Mr. Trump鈥檚 legal problems 鈥撀爌otentially involving multiple cases聽鈥� could weigh heavily on his candidacy.聽

鈥淚鈥檓 not saying he can鈥檛 win鈥� the Republican nomination or even another term as president, says a Florida-based Republican strategist, speaking on background to protect his relationships with both the Trump and DeSantis camps. But the indictment 鈥渉as made it harder.鈥�

In other words, regardless of any short-term bump, being indicted is likely to be a negative. Even in a case that may be questionable.聽

There are other signs that Republicans may face challenges ahead.聽

The victory of the liberal candidate in聽Tuesday鈥檚 critical election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court聽is another sign that progressives have mojo. In the Wisconsin race, they showed a motivation to turn out in an electoral battleground state over abortion and voting rights.

The more liberal candidate also won Tuesday鈥檚 runoff election for Chicago mayor, in a race between two Democrats. The contest was less of a bellwether than in Wisconsin, but Brandon Johnson鈥檚 victory was still a sign that left-leaning voters are highly motivated to turn out.聽

On Mr. Trump鈥檚 candidacy, political analysts are cautious as they game out scenarios for 2024. The idea that Mr. Trump would be easier to defeat in the general election than, say, Mr. DeSantis, sounds reasonable now. The Florida governor, who just won reelection in a major former battleground state by almost 20 percentage points, is in his mid-40s, and has an attractive young family. And he doesn鈥檛 carry the baggage that Mr. Trump does.聽

But some Democrats are warning their party to be careful what they wish for.聽

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who oversaw the indictment of Mr. Trump, isn鈥檛 doing this to help the former president win the nomination, says Democratic strategist Karen Finney.聽

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think anyone should think that,鈥� says Ms. Finney, former communications director for the Democratic National Committee.聽

She says Democrats can鈥檛 assume Mr. Trump is unelectable in a general election, and definitely shouldn鈥檛 try, somehow, to help him win the Republican nomination.聽

鈥淔rankly, I鈥檓 not convinced on any of the Republicans until we see them all on a debate stage,鈥� Ms. Finney says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 where you really learn and see who鈥檚 got it.鈥�

President Joe Biden is expected to announce he鈥檚 running for a second term, but has reportedly decided to delay his campaign announcement until this summer or even fall to freeze out any potential rivals. So far, only Marianne Williamson, a bestselling author who ran in 2020, has announced a campaign.聽

Meanwhile, the Republican nomination race is only getting started. In Florida, the latest survey by Mason-Dixon Polling, released Tuesday, shows Mr. DeSantis ahead of Mr. Trump in that state for the Republican nomination, 44% to 39%.聽

Mr. DeSantis is also at a four-year high in job approval 鈥撀�59% positive versus 39% disapproval 鈥� in the Mason-Dixon poll. But Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, sees potential challenges ahead for Mr. DeSantis. The Florida legislature has just approved a ban on abortion at six weeks of gestation, far below the current cutoff of 15 weeks.聽

Signing the bill could help Mr. DeSantis win the GOP nomination, but put him outside the mainstream of general election voters.聽

鈥淭hat would be a can of worms which, if he wins the nomination, would be a problem in the general election,鈥� Mr. Coker says.聽