海角大神

Justin Walis, a 26-year truck driver, doesn鈥檛 see his beliefs in the Buffalo, New York, shooting last weekend.聽

Mr. Walis wears his fourth-generation German immigrant status like a name tag, praises foreign-born colleagues, and says he supports more legal immigration.聽

But at the same time, Mr. Walis voted for one of the country鈥檚 most ardent anti-immigrant politicians in recent memory 鈥� Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has spread the so-called great replacement theory that there鈥檚 a plot to diminish the power or population share of white Americans.聽Many might say Mr. Walis believes a version of it himself.聽

According to authorities, that idea is one of the motives Payton Gendron listed in his 180-page screed before driving 200 miles to a Buffalo supermarket and shooting 13 people 鈥� 11 of whom were Black and 10 of whom died.聽

To Mr. Walis, fault rests with the individual. 鈥淚f some whack job dreams up a manifesto and decides to go out and kill people, that鈥檚 on him 鈥� no one else,鈥� he says.

But the 18-year-old Mr. Gendron listed outside influences in his document, alluding to other mass shooters apparently driven by racial or ethnic hatred in Charleston, South Carolina; Pittsburgh; and El Paso, Texas.聽

In the week since Saturday, the country is asking how another racially motivated mass shooting could happen.聽Much of the media attention聽has turned to replacement theory鈥檚 role as a motive and, by extension, to the聽elites who聽voice it.聽In the process, public attention is also focusing on how strains of this thought 鈥� often in subtle forms 鈥� have taken root in America.聽Polling suggests millions of Americans believe some, albeit less extreme, version of replacement theory as well.

And the range of views can be confusing: To what degree are old debates over immigration and cultural change synonymous with 鈥渞eplacement鈥� rhetoric?聽

Racist conspiracy theories tend to change temperature over time, says聽Pam Nadell,聽a historian at American University. And they鈥檙e heating up now due to decaying institutions, political violence, economic displacement, and online radicalization. In that way, she says, replacement theory鈥檚 recent change from a simmer to a boil is a sign of how Americans influence and are聽influenced by聽the political context around them.

鈥淚t boils over because of the crisis we鈥檙e living in,鈥� says Dr. Nadell. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a manifestation of the crisis.鈥�

A spectrum of views 鈥� and rhetoric

And it manifests in different ways.聽Replacement theory is used to refer to a wide spectrum of beliefs, including at the extreme the strident white nationalism of Mr. Gendron, but also general fears of聽white Americans鈥� approaching minority status.

That variety plays out among elites.聽Fox News host Tucker Carlson invoked replacement theory last year in saying, 鈥淭he Democratic Party is trying to replace the current electorate ... with new people, more obedient voters from the Third World.鈥澛犅�

Meanwhile Rep. Elise Stefanik, the third-ranking Republican in the House,聽ran a Facebook ad last year聽claiming Democrats wanted to use 鈥渁mnesty鈥� to 鈥渙verthrow our current electorate and create a permanent liberal majority in Washington.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 almost like there鈥檚 a hardcore version and a softcore version,鈥� says Dr. Nadell.聽

According to an聽Associated Press-NORC poll last December, 32% of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed that 鈥渢here is a group of people in this country who are trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants who agree with their political views.鈥� Compared with Democrats, Republicans were almost twice as likely to agree with the statement.

Some of those Republicans are like Mr. Walis.

He started believing there was an organized effort to聽stifle free-thinking Americans while his oldest son finished high school.聽In his view, Democratic-tilting coalitions like teacher unions and academics create a system where young people become obedient and close-minded.

At 18, his graduating son 鈥渉ung his head and basically held onto the tail of the elephant in front of him.鈥澛�

Meanwhile Mr. Walis鈥� youngest, at 5 years old, 鈥渟till believed he could be whatever he wanted,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he difference between the two broke my heart.鈥澛�

As interviews in this Georgia congressional district reveal, concerns tied to changing demographics vary and are often hard to pin down in political labels or easy cause-effect relationships.

Dave Shaw, a retiree doing some business at the Paulding County Courthouse, makes emphatically clear that he did not vote for Ms. Greene, and he scoffs at the use of replacement theory to fire up conservative voters. 鈥淲e stole this land from the Native Americans, so I鈥檓 not sure we can say much about replacement.鈥�

Yet he also echoes a theme voiced by some replacement theory proponents 鈥� the worry that America鈥檚 political culture is straying from its Judeo-海角大神 roots. He believes there鈥檚 a concerted behind-the-scenes effort to remove religious values from public life in order to better control the population.

Mr. Walis, for his part, quotes Thomas Jefferson, who once wrote about Shays鈥� Rebellion that 鈥渢he tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants.鈥� The quote is often used by extremist groups to imply that Democrats and globalists are part of a cabal against that liberty, justifying a violent response.

Replacement theory鈥檚 long history聽

Today is聽far from the first time聽that concerns about immigration and cultural change have taken on forms of replacement theory.聽

In the mid-1800s, the concern of American replacement theorists was Irish and German immigrants. After the Civil War, it was freed African Americans. By the end of that century, it was the Chinese, Eastern Europeans, and southern Europeans.聽

Responses to the fear took on the characteristics of each era. Following Reconstruction, Southern states enacted Jim Crow laws excluding Black Americans from politics. With the rise in nativism during the Gilded Age and the eugenics movement of the early 1900s, Washington passed strict immigration laws, culminating in the quota-based Immigration Act of 1924.

Especially since the 2016 election of Donald Trump, which itself followed decades of failure to reform the country鈥檚 immigration system, such concerns have again started to rise,聽says Michael Barkun, a political scientist and professor emeritus at Syracuse University in New York.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not simply white supremacists who are pushing this,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 one of the cycles of nativism that appear periodically in America whenever you have an upswing in immigration.鈥�

And just like before, the current version of replacement theory resembles today鈥檚 politics 鈥� polarized and bitter.聽That political situation was much of what first led Mr. Walis to support Mr. Trump and Ms. Greene.

The 14th District, where he lives, stretches from the northwest corner of the metro Atlanta area, to the Alabama border, and all the way up to the Chattanooga, Tennessee, television market. It鈥檚 90% white, and 75% of voters there picked both Mr. Trump and Ms. Greene in 2020. Mr. Walis was one of them.聽

Some of his concerns are over immigration, from illegal entry to cities like New York allowing noncitizens to vote. But more important to him was that Ms. Greene and Mr. Trump are fighters who seemed to recognize聽the same system聽that he thinks stifled his son鈥檚 dreams.

This week, Ms. Greene railed against what she often calls a corrupt and leftist media for suggesting that Republicans have mainstreamed replacement theory, and now bear responsibility for the violence in Buffalo. Before last Saturday, Mr. Walis had never even heard the term 鈥渞eplacement theory.鈥� He now thinks Republicans like him should 鈥渇lood the polls鈥� to protect conservative values.聽

Pushing back on prejudice

But the 14th District isn鈥檛 a monolith, and to some residents replacement theory isn鈥檛 new. Nor are its consequences.聽

Jasmine Dixon, a young Black woman, was raised in Paulding County and feels tension around race throughout the area.

As of last week, a group of Black parents and students is suing a local high school after it suspended students for protesting in Black Lives Matter T-shirts. White students who wore Confederate symbols were spared. It reminds Ms.聽Dixon of the time school officials asked her to change her Afro hairstyle during high school sports. To some, she says, equality is treated like a threat.聽

Hence, the shooting in Buffalo last weekend doesn鈥檛 feel so distant from the 14th District, its politics, or even the idea that motivated Mr. Gendron.聽

鈥淢y sense of replacement theory is that it鈥檚 driven by a sense that if minorities ever get the upper political hand, they will turn on white people 鈥� do to white people what white people have done to us,鈥� says Ms. Dixon.

鈥淎nd that is so messed up,鈥� she says. 鈥淎ll we鈥檙e doing is fighting for things that we have all along been told are, in fact, ours.鈥�

Noah Robertson reported from Alexandria, Virginia.