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Barbara Cubin has known Liz Cheney since she was a little girl, and she鈥檚 not surprised that Wyoming鈥檚 only House member is taking a stand against former President Donald Trump.聽

鈥淪he needs to be right; she鈥檚 always been like that,鈥� says former Congresswoman Cubin, who represented Wyoming from 1995 to 2009. 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 matter the cost. She鈥檒l fall on her sword to be right.鈥澛�

Since the Jan. 6 riot in the U.S. Capitol, which led to then-President Trump鈥檚 impeachment on one charge of incitement, Congresswoman Cheney 鈥� the No. 3 House Republican 鈥� has been among the most vocal of the 17 House and Senate members from her party who voted against the president. Right before last weekend鈥檚 big Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, Ms. Cheney聽said of Mr. Trump:聽鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe that he should be playing a role in the future of the party or the country.鈥�

In his address at CPAC on Sunday, Mr. Trump singled her out for special opprobrium, calling her a 鈥渨armonger.鈥澛�

鈥淚n her state, her poll numbers have dropped faster than any human being I鈥檝e ever seen,鈥� the ex-president claimed, apparently referring to a poll commissioned by his own political action committee, Save America.聽

Feelings remain raw on both sides of a Republican civil war that has pitted pro-Trump party activists 鈥� many now holding leadership positions in state and local GOP committees 鈥� against old-style conservative, establishment Republicans.聽

For now, the battle for the soul of the GOP seems over, and Mr. Trump has won. He controls the national party and has acolytes in powerful positions all over the country 鈥� with some, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in strong position to compete for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 if Mr. Trump himself doesn鈥檛.聽

But between now and the 2022 midterms, much could change.聽Mr. Trump is no longer president, and has lost access to Twitter, his main communication tool. Perhaps the most surprising outcome of CPAC, a bastion of Trump loyalty, was the straw poll of attendees: It showed only 68% want him to run for president again. In a trial run of a potential 2024 GOP primary field, he won 55% of the vote. More heartening for Mr. Trump was the 95% who said they want the Republican Party to stick with his agenda.聽

Even if Mr. Trump himself doesn鈥檛 necessarily represent the future of the GOP, it appears his ideas do.聽

鈥淲e want Republican leaders who are loyal to the voters and who will work proudly for the vision that I鈥檝e laid out today,鈥� he said Sunday. 鈥淎nd what is it? ... Military, law and order, great trade deals, great education.鈥澛�

Mr. Trump teased a possible presidential run in 2024, but didn鈥檛 commit. He made clear his immediate goal will be to help defeat his political opponents in the midterms 鈥� be they Democrat or Republican. He鈥檚 reportedly starting a super political action committee, or super PAC, which can raise unlimited funds from individuals and corporations to support his chosen candidates.

That Mr. Trump is the dominant force in the GOP is beyond dispute. His choice for Republican National Committee chair, Ronna McDaniel, won reelection unanimously in January.聽

The impact of state and local Republican Party committees, where the support for Mr. Trump can be CPAC-level intense, will also matter going forward 鈥撀爌erhaps most in battleground states and longtime Republican-dominant states that are trending blue, such as Arizona and Georgia.

That might seem to work against GOP interests in the 2022 midterms. Republicans will be defending the seats of retiring senators in battleground states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as well as trying to win back seats in Arizona and Georgia in their quest to retake the Senate majority. Logic might suggest a more moderate approach to win back, for example, the suburban voters who went Democratic last November.聽

But there鈥檚 a simple reason some state and local Republican parties are among the most pro-Trump bastions in the country, political analysts say. Mr. Trump remains the party鈥檚 dominant figure, and with his MAGA message 鈥� Make American Great Again 鈥� he鈥檚 the top driver of GOP activism. Grassroots enthusiasm is the key to winning elections.聽

鈥淩epublicans can鈥檛 win without the MAGA crowd,鈥� says Gary Jacobson, emeritus professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego.

Mr. Trump remains popular among Republicans, while GOP senators who move away from the former president have seen聽declines in their job approval ratings聽at home 鈥撀燼 sign that distancing from Mr. Trump is risky. No senator has seen a bigger decline in support among home-state Republicans than the party鈥檚 Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, according to a mid-February Morning Consult poll. However, he鈥檚 in no danger of being voted out, since he just won reelection in November.

But each state, and even each congressional district, is its own political ecosystem. In deep-red Wyoming, where Mr. Trump won 70% of the vote 鈥� his highest winning percentage of any state 鈥� Ms. Cheney may still be tough to defeat in a Republican primary, despite her outspoken opposition to the ex-president.聽

In an interview, Ms. Cubin at first predicts that Congresswoman Cheney will lose her seat, then pulls back. 鈥淧eople forget stuff in two years,鈥� she says. 鈥淚f she were to try to sincerely be a representative of Wyoming, that would move some people.鈥澛�

Former Wyoming GOP chair Matt Micheli also suggests that Ms. Cheney may be able to survive a primary challenge. 鈥淎s the next two years play out, and the national fight will focus on Republicans versus Democrats, she鈥檒l reassert herself as a voice of conservatism,鈥� Mr. Micheli says.聽

Still, another active Wyoming Republican, Jack Mueller, former national chair of the Young Republicans, describes himself in an email as 鈥渧ery unhappy鈥� with his member of Congress 鈥� 鈥渆ven more so after her comments鈥� about Mr. Trump right before CPAC.聽

In Michigan, a very different state from Wyoming, Republican political consultant Jamie Roe warns against counting out the two GOP members who voted to impeach Mr. Trump. One, Rep. Fred Upton, has served in Congress since 1987, and 鈥渉as been primaried more times than I can count,鈥� Mr. Roe says. 鈥淧eople聽have been writing his political obituary for 30 years. Anyone who underestimates Fred Upton is crazy.鈥�

The other GOP Michigan congressman who voted to impeach, Rep. Peter Meijer, is a freshman 鈥� and first-term reps can be especially vulnerable come reelection time. But he understands what he needs to do, says Mr. Roe, who consults for Congressman Meijer.聽

鈥淗e will sit down and talk to anyone about why he did it,鈥� Mr. Roe says. 鈥淗e鈥檚 convinced he did the right thing.鈥澛�

Mr. Roe also notes that Mr. Meijer鈥檚 district was represented for 10 years by Justin Amash, first as a tea party Republican and then eventually a Libertarian, before declining to run last November. Mr. Meijer鈥檚 voters 鈥渦nderstand people who go against the grain,鈥� Mr. Roe says.聽

Around the country, Republican House and Senate members have faced censure by state and county GOP committees over their impeachment votes. Some GOP House members have also been censured for voting to remove first-term Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia from her committee assignments over past statements supporting conspiracy theories.聽

Even GOP senators who won鈥檛 face voters again have received blowback at home for voting to convict Mr. Trump. In Pennsylvania, the state Republican committee still hasn鈥檛 reached a final verdict on retiring Sen. Pat Toomey.聽

But at least one committee member, speaking on background, suggested the panel should just let it go.聽鈥淢y feeling on the subject is, gosh, it鈥檚 over,鈥� the member says.聽

Other party activists in Pennsylvania feel more strongly, perhaps if only to lay down a marker for future representatives. After Mr. Toomey鈥檚 impeachment vote last month, the chair of the Washington County GOP spoke out. 鈥淲e did not send him there to vote his conscience,鈥� Dave Ball聽told a Pittsburgh TV station.

Another state being watched closely is Arizona, where Kelli Ward, an unfailing Trump loyalist, was just reelected state GOP party chair. This, after Arizona voted for Democrat Joe Biden for president and elected Democrat Mark Kelly over incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally in a special election. Senator Kelly will face voters again in 2022, a marquee race in the battle for control of the Senate.聽

But Florida is another story. Once considered the biggest electoral battleground in the country, the Sunshine State is now effectively the headquarters of Trumpism. Mr. Trump now lives there, and Governor DeSantis topped the straw poll at CPAC as conferencegoers鈥� choice for GOP presidential nominee in 2024 鈥� if Mr. Trump doesn鈥檛 run 鈥� with 43% of the vote.

鈥淚n most states, the governor is considered the head of the party,鈥� says Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida. 鈥淎nd with DeSantis, our GOP state party is probably as pro-Trump as you can get.鈥�