海角大神

When Donald Trump tapped Mike Pence to be his running mate in 2016, it seemed an unlikely pairing. One was a thrice-married former reality TV star; the other a devout Evangelical who made it a policy never to be alone in a room with a woman who was not his wife. The brash New York real estate mogul was making his first run for public office; the governor of Indiana had spent a dozen years as a congressman, and was known for a placid demeanor that even allies admitted could come across as dull.

Yet in Mr. Pence, Mr. Trump may have spotted a quality that he is frequently said to prize above all others: loyalty.

Four years later, the vice president is one of the few original Team Trump members who鈥檚 still around, in an administration marked by record turnover 鈥� even longtime aide Kellyanne Conway will step down at the end of the month 鈥� and endless drama. He鈥檚 survived despite persistent rumors that the president might replace him with a more exciting candidate, such as former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley or South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

Through it all, Mr. Pence has presented a picture of steadfast support 鈥� always on message, never contradicting his boss. Not only has he never attempted to carve out a distinct political identity apart from Mr. Trump, he seems to have made the decision not to allow even a crack of daylight between the two.

But as the vice president formally accepts his party鈥檚 nomination again in a speech at Fort McHenry in Baltimore on Wednesday, some say he鈥檚 playing the long game. His political future was always going to be tied to the administration鈥檚 record, for better or worse. But among the many candidates angling to pick up the Trump mantle in 2024, Mr. Pence could wind up better positioned than most 鈥� having established himself as the staunchest of allies, while maintaining a private persona distinct from the president鈥檚 more controversial one.

鈥淢ike Pence has probably been the most consistent member of the Trump administration,鈥� says Kurt Luidhardt, an Indiana-based Republican strategist who has worked in the same political circles as the former Indiana governor. 鈥淚 think Pence will have earned the right, whether Trump wins or loses, to be a top candidate for president in 2024.鈥�

An odd couple for the ages

Despite their differences, the Trump-Pence partnership made sense for both men in 2016.聽

Mr. Pence was in the middle of a tough reelection race聽that some pundits suspected he would lose. A place on the presidential ticket gave him the opportunity to boost his national profile while evading a loss that could end his political career.

Mr. Trump, for his part, had a relatively small pool of candidates to choose from, as many GOP officials had publicly criticized him. In Mr. Pence he found not only a willing partner, but someone who could help shore up white Evangelicals, a critical Republican voting bloc.

鈥淭rump selected an evangelical vice president on purpose,鈥� says Frances FitzGerald, author of 鈥淭he Evangelicals: The Struggle to Shape America.鈥� 鈥淗e wanted to reassure them that even if he wasn鈥檛 going to church, his vice president was.鈥澛�

Mr. Pence鈥檚 solid conservative credentials may also have sent a message of reassurance to Republican voters unsure about Mr. Trump鈥檚 ideological leanings. The vice president 鈥� who famously introduced himself at the 2016 Republican National Convention as 鈥渁 海角大神, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order鈥� 鈥� had one of the most conservative voting records during his six terms in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Former Mississippi Rep. Gregg Harper, who served alongside Mr. Pence in the House, says he considered Mr. Pence his 鈥渂ell cow鈥� 鈥� a term for the lead cow of a herd that shows the others where to go.聽

鈥淚f I wanted to be sure I voted right, I鈥檇 look up at his vote,鈥� says Mr. Harper. 鈥淚 had that level of trust with him.鈥�

The Trump-Pence relationship was tested almost immediately in the 2016 campaign, after an audiotape from 鈥淎ccess Hollywood鈥� was leaked to the press in which Mr. Trump could be heard boasting in crude terms about his ability to force himself on women. Mr. Pence reportedly considered leaving the ticket, as a parade of Republican officials denounced their party鈥檚 nominee, who was down in the polls just weeks before the election. Yet in the end, Mr. Pence made the pivotal decision to stick by Mr. Trump.聽

Four years later, the president seems less in need of Mr. Pence鈥檚 political help with the base 鈥� having satisfied many conservatives with his record on everything from tax cuts to deregulation.聽For white Evangelicals, the president has 鈥渄one everything he鈥檚 promised them, from Jerusalem to the Supreme Court,鈥� notes Ms. FitzGerald,聽referring to Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, a long-held conservative dream. She adds: 鈥淎nd you would not think this is true, but a lot of them like his style. ... They like the idea of turning the world upside down.鈥澛�

Yet while the president may not need Mr. Pence as much from a political standpoint, allies say he would be hard-pressed to find a more faithful governing partner. Much of the credit for the relationship, observers suggest, goes to the vice president 鈥� his willingness to toe the line, and cede the spotlight entirely to his boss.

鈥淚鈥檝e always found [Mr. Pence], personally, to be a really humble guy,鈥� says Mr. Luidhardt. 鈥淪ome people can鈥檛 handle being second in command, but I don鈥檛 think that鈥檚 ever been his problem.鈥�

Loyalty taken to a new level

John Nance Garner, Franklin D. Roosevelt鈥檚 running mate on the 1932 Democratic ticket, described the vice presidency as 鈥渢he spare tire on the automobile of government,鈥� and, more famously, as 鈥渘ot worth a bucket of warm spit.鈥�

Most vice presidents are loyal and supportive, says law professor Joel Goldstein. 鈥淏ut Vice President Pence,鈥� he says, 鈥渟eems to have taken it to a new level.鈥�

Mr. Pence has maintained this steadfast posture in an administration marked by an unusual level of turmoil. Vice presidents often want to be 鈥渋n the room where it happens, to borrow the line from 鈥楬amilton,鈥欌�� says Mr. Goldstein, author of the book 鈥淭he White House Vice Presidency: The Path to Significance, Mondale to Biden.鈥澛燘ut that鈥檚 much more difficult when policies are being made in late-night tweets, he notes. 鈥淎nd there are some times when you don鈥檛 want to be in the room.鈥澛�

On the few occasions when Mr. Pence has even slightly diverged from the president, he鈥檚 done it in the mildest of ways. Ahead of the 2018 midterms, when Mr. Trump endorsed Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore, despite allegations of sexual misconduct, Mr. Pence chose to stay silent on the issue. The vice president attended the funeral of Georgia Rep. John Lewis while Mr. Trump, who had feuded with the civil rights icon, skipped the event. Most recently, Mr. Pence called QAnon a 鈥渃onspiracy theory,鈥� while Mr. Trump has seemed to court QAnon believers.聽

Still, Mr. Pence waited to comment on the death of Mr. Lewis, whom he considered 鈥渁 colleague and a friend,鈥� until after the White House had issued its own statement. And last week, he claimed he 鈥渄idn鈥檛 hear anything鈥� about the president embracing QAnon.聽

Perhaps the most high-stakes example of Mr. Pence鈥檚 deft balancing act has been his leadership of the White House coronavirus task force, a politically risky role that his staff was reportedly hesitant for him to accept. Early on, the president took charge of the task force鈥檚 public briefings 鈥� which led to some politically damaging moments, such as when Mr. Trump suggested that an 鈥渋njection inside鈥� the body of disinfectants could be explored as a possible treatment for COVID-19.

After the president said that he was taking the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine to prevent COVID-19, Mr. Pence told reporters he would not follow suit, as his own physician had not recommended it for him. Still, he added: 鈥淚 would never begrudge any American taking the advice of their physician.鈥�

The vice president is frequently seen wearing a mask when out in public, while Mr. Trump initially refused to wear one and still rarely does. During a visit to the Mayo Clinic in May, Mr. Pence drew criticism for not wearing a face covering 鈥� a move for which he later publicly apologized.

His role on the coronavirus task force underscores the ways in which Mr. Pence could wind up taking on much of the baggage of Trump administration failures 鈥� especially if the U.S. continues to struggle to get the virus under control and Mr. Trump loses his bid for reelection.

鈥淏ecause [Mr. Pence] has embraced this role as Trump鈥檚 champion so enthusiastically, it鈥檚 hard to see him as having a separate identity,鈥� says Mr. Goldstein. 鈥淚n 2024, a lot of people in the Republican Party who are going to run for president are going to attack Pence and say, 鈥榃hy didn鈥檛 he do this or that with COVID-19?鈥欌��

In contrast to other recent vice presidents,聽Gallup found聽that just as many Americans have an unfavorable view of Mr. Pence as those with a favorable view, perhaps reflecting how much his identity is linked to Mr. Trump鈥檚.

Still, a聽recent poll聽by Echelon Insights聽found that while a plurality of Republican voters 鈥� almost 30% 鈥� are unsure as to whom they will support in four years, Mr. Pence was the top choice for 26% of them (Donald Trump Jr. came in third, with 12%).聽

The vice president has traveled quite a bit on behalf of the Trump administration, even in the pandemic era. Following the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, he plans to travel to three Midwestern battleground states, visiting Michigan and Minnesota on Friday before delivering a commencement speech in Wisconsin on Saturday.

And while he may be campaigning in a Trump-Pence 2020 bus, the undercurrents of his own political ambitions are just beneath the surface. Mr. Pence may have said it best himself, during his first RNC speech back in 2016.聽

鈥淣ow, if you know anything about Hoosiers ... we play to win,鈥� said Mr. Pence to a cheering crowd in Cleveland. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why I joined this campaign in a heartbeat.鈥�