海角大神

Patrick O鈥橞rien says he鈥檒l be 鈥渇irst in line鈥� to vote for President Donald Trump again in November. Speaking under a sweltering summer sun, the retired police officer offers multiple reasons why the president deserves to be reelected.

But when asked about Thom Tillis, North Carolina鈥檚 first-term senator who will also be on the ballot this fall, Mr. O鈥橞rien pauses and strokes his gray goatee. He then asks, 鈥淗e鈥檚 a Republican, right?鈥�

It鈥檚 a common reaction across Nash County, a rural area known for its sweet potatoes, where some streets have more churches than houses. Many voters don鈥檛 have a strong opinion about Senator Tillis聽or his Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham. Instead, the vast majority say they鈥檒l vote based almost entirely on their opinions of President Trump.聽

Split-ticket voting has become increasingly rare as the country has become more polarized along partisan lines. In 2016, all 34 Senate races were won by the same party that won the presidential race in those states. And while presidential candidates often have 鈥渃oattails,鈥� helping elect down-ballot politicians on the strength of their own popularity, the reverse can also be true.

With President Trump, the effect may cut both ways: He inspires passionate levels of support among his party鈥檚 base, while also repelling many swing voters 鈥� a dynamic that has thrust Republican senators like Mr. Tillis into an exceedingly delicate balancing act.

As the president鈥檚 approval ratings continue to slide overall 鈥� former Vice President Joe Biden now holds a commanding lead among independents, and a widening majority of Americans say they聽disapprove of Mr. Trump鈥檚 handling of the pandemic 鈥� Republicans in close races aren鈥檛 disavowing the president. But they aren鈥檛 exactly hugging him close, either.聽

鈥淭illis is in the same boat as some other [Republican] senators who are in trouble,鈥� says David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh, and director of The Meredith Poll. 鈥淭hey are all trying to walk this tightrope 鈥� and it鈥檚 a challenging tightrope to walk.鈥�

At North Carolina鈥檚 GOP convention in early July 鈥� a Facebook livestream event featuring politicians and party activists 鈥� Mr. Tillis sang the president鈥檚 praises, showed a clip of himself on stage with Mr. Trump at a rally, and spoke about the importance of getting the president reelected.

Just days later, in two separate COVID-19-related telephone town halls with thousands of voters on the line, Mr. Tillis never mentioned the president. He emphasized multiple times the importance of wearing face masks to prevent the spread of COVID-19 鈥� a matter on which Mr. Trump for months took a prominently different stance 鈥� and called the politicization of the issue 鈥渇rustrating.鈥澛犅�

In Mr. Tillis鈥檚 first television ad of the general election, the senator is shown walking around a North Carolina trailer park, talking about his 鈥渉umble鈥� upbringing. There is no mention of Mr. Trump.

Mr. McLennan wonders what Mr. Tillis will do if or when Mr. Trump comes to campaign in North Carolina in person.聽鈥淢aybe in rural places Tillis will show up, but if the president shows up in Raleigh or Charlotte, maybe Tillis will have something else to do that day, like wash his hair,鈥� he says, with a chuckle.

He adds, 鈥淪ix months ago, Thom Tillis never would have imagined how hard this reelection was going to be.鈥澛�

Senate majority up for grabs聽聽

For Democrats to retake the majority in the Senate they need a net gain of four seats. Of the 23 Republican senators on the ballot this fall, six have their races rated as聽鈥渢oss ups鈥澛燽y the nonpartisan Cook Political Report: Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, Georgia Sen. David Perdue, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Montana Sen. Steve Daines, and Senator Tillis, who was moved to that column in March. One Republican seat, held by Arizona Sen. Martha McSally, is categorized as 鈥渓ean Democrat,鈥� while one Democratic seat, held by Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama, is 鈥渓ean Republican.鈥� All the other Democratic seats up this cycle are considered 鈥渓ean鈥� or 鈥渟olid鈥� Democrat.聽聽

In part thanks to President Trump鈥檚 polarizing effect, Democrats have been posting eye-popping fundraising numbers in several states. Mr. Cunningham raised more than $7 million in the second quarter of 2020, a record for North Carolina.

One of North Carolina鈥檚 youngest state senators in the early 2000s, Mr. Cunningham left politics for a while, volunteering for the U.S. Army reserves and working at local law firms. His聽first television ad, titled 鈥淥ath,鈥澛爁eatures photographs of him in an Army uniform projected onto the side of a barn, while he talks to the camera about fighting corruption in Washington.聽

鈥淓ven though Tillis tries to paint his opponent as this ultra-liberal firebrand, that鈥檚 not what North Carolinians think of Cal Cunningham,鈥� says Mr. McLennan. Mr. Cunningham聽wants to expand Medicaid and protect the Affordable Care Act, for example, but does not endorse Medicare for All. He opposes offshore drilling, but does not support the Green New Deal.

Before COVID-19 effectively shut down in-person campaigning, he was diligently reaching out to voters across the state, says聽Valerie Steel, chair of the Nash County Democrats. 鈥淐al Cunningham is doing the footwork,鈥� she says.

But while Mr. Cunningham may benefit from a more centrist profile than his party as a whole, that鈥檚 not necessarily the case for Republicans like Senator Tillis.

For many Republicans, the political fortunes of former GOP colleagues who criticized Mr. Trump and went on to lose their own elections loom as 鈥渃autionary tales,鈥� as Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel has put it. Just last week, Jeff Sessions lost the primary for the Alabama Senate seat he had held for two decades before being appointed U.S. Attorney General by Mr. Trump. After that relationship soured, Mr. Trump wound up backing Mr. Sessions鈥� opponent, former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville.聽

Mr. Tillis has had some back-and-forth with the president. In February 2019, after Mr. Trump declared a national emergency to move forward with his plan to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, Mr. Tillis penned an op-ed in the Washington Post opposing the president鈥檚 move. But he later reversed his position.聽

鈥淧eople thought he wasn鈥檛 supporting the president at first,鈥� says Nashville Mayor Brenda Brown. 鈥淏ut then he turned, so he won back favor with the people.鈥�

More recently, as the Trump campaign tussled with North Carolina鈥檚 Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper over how to hold the Republican National Convention safely during the pandemic, Mr. Tillis was largely supportive of the governor. In March, Mr. Tillis wrote to Mr. Trump in support of Governor Cooper鈥檚 disaster declaration, and he had good things to say about the governor鈥檚 cautious approach to reopening the state.聽The convention, scheduled to take place next month, wound up being partially moved to Jacksonville, Florida. On Thursday, the president said he was canceling the Jacksonville event.聽

Politicians who try to take a nuanced approach often wind up pleasing no one, says James Gailliard, the Democratic state representative for southern Nash County.

鈥淭he thing about North Carolinians that I鈥檝e learned is that they can forgive you if they disagree with you, if you can explain your decision and stick with it,鈥� says Representative Gailliard, adding that he has had to defend tough votes himself. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 respond well to candidates who don鈥檛 pick a side.鈥�

Sue Leggett, a Nash County Commissioner and first-generation farm owner, says she has appreciated Mr. Tillis鈥檚 focus on the nitty gritty aspects of immigration policy.聽But she wonders whether that kind of attention to local issues is worth much anymore. Indeed, if it means breaking with the president, she says, it could hurt more than it helps.聽

鈥淚t puts them in a precarious situation,鈥� says Ms. Leggett, at her farm office in Nashville. 鈥淭hey are called a moderate or weak on a subject, when they may just be a real common-sense person.鈥澛�

That鈥檚 not to say Mr. Tillis has a centrist record. During his time in the U.S. Senate, he has voted in line with President Trump聽more than 93% of the time.聽And on the two issues that Nash County conservatives say matter most to them, abortion and guns, Mr. Tillis delivers: he has a 0% score from the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and an A+ rating from the National Rifle Association.

Before he defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014, Mr. Tillis served as Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, where he helped the state House pass a law requiring ultrasounds on women seeking abortions. (The law was later struck down by the courts.)聽

鈥淚 feel positive Trump will win [Nash County] and I feel almost positive Tillis will win, just because we are so pro-life, we are so pro-Second Amendment,鈥� says Mayor Brown.聽聽

A state in transition

North Carolina鈥檚 status as a swing state is relatively recent. Over the past 40 years, the state has only gone for a Democratic presidential candidate once, narrowly voting for Barack Obama in 2008. In 2012 and 2016, the state swung back to the GOP 鈥� but by some of the smallest margins in the country.

Mr. Trump鈥檚 鈥渟uburban slump鈥� has been particularly evident in North Carolina, where he has gone from a 24-point lead among suburban voters in 2016 to a 21-point deficit in 2020.

鈥淭his state is really transitioning in ways that many people don鈥檛 realize,鈥� says Michael Bitzer, chair of political science at Catawba College and creator of Old North State Politics blog.聽

That transition seems to be fueling Mr. Cunningham鈥檚 modest lead in the Tar Heel state, which has some of the fastest growing suburbs in the country. A聽recent Fox News poll聽found Mr. Cunningham holding a 16-point lead among suburban voters.

Nash County offers an example of another, less-noticed warning sign for the Trump and Tillis campaigns: softening support among working-class white voters, particularly women.聽 聽

In 2016, Mr. Trump won white voters without a college degree by 37 points nationally and by 44 points in North Carolina. Two recent Fox News polls, however, show that Mr. Trump鈥檚 lead among this demographic has shrunk to a 9 point advantage nationally and a 15 point lead in North Carolina.聽

More diverse than the country as a whole, Nash County is 41% Black, with a median household income almost $12,000 less than the national average.聽In 2014, Mr. Tillis won the area by less than 2 percentage points. In 2016, Mr. Trump won the county by 84 votes.聽

Kim Taylor, a hairdresser and single mother, says she鈥檚 voted a straight Republican ticket her entire life 鈥� including in 2016. But she鈥檚 become so discouraged about the direction of the country that she doubts she鈥檒l even vote at all this November.聽

鈥淧eople thought that Trump would make them matter, and that he would make America great again,鈥� says Ms. Taylor, leaning on her cart in a Walmart aisle as customers bustle pass.聽鈥淚 haven鈥檛 seen anyone come around who could give a better life to me, my kids, and my grandkids. I鈥檝e just lost faith.鈥澛�

Others suggest they鈥檒l vote for Mr. Trump 鈥� and Mr. Tillis 鈥� begrudgingly. 鈥淚 think Trump is a scumbag,鈥� says Karen, who works on her father鈥檚 sweet potato farm and declines to give her last name because 鈥渢alking politics around here is bad for business.鈥�

鈥淎ll I see is everyone around here posting on Facebook about how bad Trump is,鈥� she says, while shopping at the Piggly Wiggly.聽鈥淏ut in the end, I鈥檓 a conservative,鈥� she shrugs.聽

Still, some here believe that support for the president has actually grown.聽

鈥淔rom what I鈥檝e seen, rural North Carolina has really rallied around President Trump, more than any other president that I can remember,鈥� says Ms. Leggett, who has lived in the area for almost her entire life. 鈥淎nd I think that support is going to trickle down for Senator Tillis.鈥�

And it鈥檚 far from clear that Mr. Biden has Nash County in the bag. While he captured the Democratic nomination in large part due to overwhelming support among Southern Black voters, enthusiasm among many African-American residents here seems lackluster. One Black woman leaving the Piggly Wiggly simply says she 鈥渟tays out of politics,鈥� and another says she 鈥渄idn鈥檛 vote in 2016, and doesn鈥檛 plan to in 2020.鈥澛�

James, who installs hardwood floors for a living and declines to give his last name, offers some of the strongest support.聽鈥淚 will vote in November, and you know it won鈥檛 be for Trump. So yeah, I guess it鈥檒l be Biden,鈥� he says, snacking on a bag of Cool Ranch Doritos in front of a gas station in Spring Hope.聽

鈥淚 mean, it鈥檚 gotta get better, right?鈥� he adds. 鈥淲e all need to come together.鈥�