海角大神

Sitting on a cluster of chairs next to an abandoned softball field, Deacon James Morrison and his after-church buddies are busy sorting out the next president of the United States.

The group of mostly older African American men, who get together every Sunday in a kind of makeshift social club, are united in their view that President Donald Trump聽has drawn the nation into a kind of playground sandbox. And they see him as affront to the legacy of President Barack Obama.聽

But that doesn鈥檛 mean their support for Mr. Obama鈥檚 vice president, Joe Biden, is a given.

鈥淛oe Biden is a good man, but my vote is not guaranteed,鈥� says Mr. Morrison, who is leaning toward Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. 鈥淚鈥檓 in nobody鈥檚 pocket.鈥�

With African Americans representing a growing share of the Democratic Party overall, South Carolina鈥檚 鈥淔irst in the South鈥� primary will offer this cycle鈥檚 first real electoral test of that clout. What began as one of the most diverse Democratic fields in history has been winnowed to an all-white group of candidates courting a primary electorate here that is about two-thirds African American. And the choices made on Saturday by voters like Mr. Morrison could foreshadow 鈥� as well as influence 鈥� what happens just three days later on Super Tuesday, when a slew of heavily diverse Southern states, as well as giants like California and Texas, will vote.

鈥淲hat happens here is going to reverberate through Georgia, North Carolina, Alabama, and beyond,鈥� says Harold Mitchell, a former member of the South Carolina legislature from Spartanburg, South Carolina. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to start a wave.鈥�

For Democrats concerned about the rise of the far-left Senator Sanders, South Carolina could be their last chance to boost a moderate alternative. Vice President Biden has long cast the Palmetto State as a 鈥渇irewall鈥� for his campaign, thanks to the goodwill he enjoys among the state鈥檚 African American voters. On Wednesday, he got the official endorsement of influential South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, the third-ranking Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

鈥淚 know Joe. We know Joe,鈥� Congressman Clyburn said. 鈥淏ut most importantly, Joe knows us.鈥澛�

But while most polls still show Mr. Biden in front, the race has dramatically narrowed. Other candidates 鈥� such as billionaire Tom Steyer, who has been pouring resources into the state 鈥撀爃ave been growing their support in the wake of Mr. Biden鈥檚 shaky performances in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Most notably, Senator Sanders has risen sharply, particularly after his decisive victory last Saturday in Nevada. Trounced by Hillary Clinton in South Carolina in 2016, he now has a real shot at winning here, which could make him virtually unstoppable going into Super Tuesday, where 1,400 delegates are in play.

On the surface, a septuagenarian democratic socialist from Vermont may seem to have little in common with black voters in the South. Yet Mr. Sanders鈥� advocacy for the working class appears to be resonating with many in this industrial and agricultural state, where stark pockets of deep poverty abound.

Mr. Morrison, for one, dismisses criticisms of Senator Sanders as a leftist radical. 鈥淭hose labels just don鈥檛 stick with me,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey called Martin Luther King Jr. a communist, too.鈥�

鈥淪anders has a strong grassroots organization, legions of small donors, and he has that tailwind of being the major challenger to Clinton in the last election,鈥� says Todd Shaw, who studies social movements within the black community at the University of South Carolina, in Columbia. 鈥淏iden, for one, certainly underestimated the strength of Bernie Sanders in South Carolina.鈥�

Unlike 2008 and 2016

Saturday鈥檚 primary comes as African American voters have a growing voice in the Democratic Party. They made up 19% of the Democratic primary electorate in 2008; this year, they鈥檙e likely to reach 25% or more. In South Carolina, they have often broken decisively for a candidate 鈥� helping Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton, respectively, secure their paths to the Democratic nomination in 2008 and 2016.

But this year, experts say the African American vote could splinter, particularly as there appears to be little consensus around who would be the strongest candidate to go up against President Trump.

鈥淭here are divisions of gender within the black community; there are divisions by age and generation,鈥� says Professor Shaw.聽Those splits aren鈥檛 new, he adds, but with a candidate like Mr. Obama they weren鈥檛 apparent, because there was consensus around his candidacy. 鈥淏ut those [divisions] certainly emerge when there鈥檚 greater uncertainty about which candidate could effectively challenge Trump and is electable,鈥� he says.

Younger black voters, in particular, are evincing a broader frustration with the Democratic establishment, as reflected in a recent East Carolina University poll, which showed聽more than half of older African Americans supporting Mr. Biden, while those younger than 35 more likely to support Mr. Sanders or Mr. Steyer. Those trends are mirrored in the growing numbers of younger liberal voters in the South registering as 鈥渦naffiliated鈥� instead of as Democrats, says聽J. Miles Coleman, a political analyst at Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.

Many of those voters did not cast a ballot in the last presidential election, where black participation dropped by 7%.

鈥淭hese are voters who are not misinformed, not ill-educated, but registered voters who [in the past] have made an intelligent decision from their standpoint that, 鈥楳y vote is not important, but wasted, and I鈥檓 not going to get involved,鈥欌�� says Johnnie Cordero, chairman of the state鈥檚 Democratic Black Caucus.

Some of those disaffected voters, he says, are not only getting involved now, but becoming sounding boards for older voters. 鈥淚 had a young lady call me in tears, sharing with me that her grandmother called her and ... said to her, 鈥楤aby, who should I vote for?鈥欌�� says Mr. Cordero.聽

In Tuesday鈥檚 contentious Democratic debate, Mr. Biden insisted he was taking nothing for granted. 鈥淚鈥檝e worked like the devil to earn the votes of the African American community, not just here but around the country,鈥� he said. He promised to put a black woman on the U.S. Supreme Court.

Not surprisingly, he has also heavily emphasized his ties to former President Obama, says Mr. Coleman.聽Still, he notes that Michael Bloomberg 鈥� who is not on the ballot in South Carolina 鈥� has also been running ads that prominently feature Mr. Obama praising the former New York mayor. 鈥淏loomberg, in particular, is trying to steal some of that nostalgic connection that Biden has to Obama 鈥� which, if successful, could be very hurtful [to Biden] in a state like South Carolina,鈥� he says.

Race as a campaign issue

Black voters, of course, are united by a common history, one forged by prejudice and suffering. In South Carolina, that past is not that far in the past. In 2015, 150 years after the fall of the Confederacy, South Carolina finally removed the Confederate battle flag from the state grounds, after a white supremacist killed nine black parishioners at Emanuel AME Church in Charleston that summer.

Allegations of racism have been a persistent thread in the Democratic contest. Mr. Bloomberg has been attacked over the stop-and-frisk police tactic he once promoted. Mr. Biden has had to defend his support as a senator for an omnibus crime bill that disproportionately affected black people.

In Tuesday鈥檚 debate, Mr. Biden attacked Mr. Steyer for his hedge fund鈥檚 past investment in a private prison corporation that had been accused of mistreating prisoners. 鈥淭hey hogtied young men in prison here in this state,鈥� he said.

Mr. Steyer responded indignantly, saying he鈥檇 sold the stock after investigating, and that he鈥檇 worked to eliminate private prisons in California.

On Sunday, reporters asked the California billionaire about allegations he鈥檚 been buying endorsements in the state (something Mr. Sanders has also been accused of doing). He told the Monitor that assuming African American lawmakers鈥� support is for sale 鈥渋s racist.鈥�

Wearing an Indian bead belt and a loose collared shirt, Mr. Steyer addressed a large crowd of mostly black parishioners at Family Worship Center, in Yemassee, South Carolina, the heart of the Lowcountry.

鈥淲e need to tell the truth about 400 years of injustice,鈥� he told the crowd. 鈥淎nd there鈥檚 no other way to look at economic and environmental justice other than through race.鈥澛�

Mr. Steyer鈥檚 push for a race commission, reparations for slavery, and rural infrastructure funding has made him perhaps the most focused of any candidate on African American issues. And his speech resonated among some in the crowd.

Democratic voter Phyllis Grant says she hasn鈥檛 decided yet on her choice, but Mr. Steyer鈥檚 pitch made a solid impression. When it comes to 鈥渆ducation, foreign policy, the economy, and race in America 鈥� this is our chance to say where we go next,鈥� says Ms. Grant.