海角大神

Throughout the 2020 primary cycle, Democratic voters have professed themselves united around a common goal: beating President Donald Trump in November. But in the wake of Monday鈥檚 Iowa caucus debacle, it鈥檚 becoming clear that the intraparty fissures from 2016 have yet to heal 鈥� and indeed, may be growing deeper.

The division is in part ideological, between a progressive faction that wants radical change and a more pragmatic establishment. At a deeper level, though, is an emotional wound, with lingering mistrust and bitterness between supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and those who backed Hillary Clinton 鈥� each of whom still holds the other at fault for 2016鈥檚 loss.

The latest results out of Iowa now show a virtual tie between Senator Sanders and Pete Buttigieg in state delegate equivalents, with Mr. Sanders leading in the popular vote. On Thursday, amid reports of new inconsistencies, the Democratic National Committee chair called for a recanvass (essentially an audit of the results). But Mr. Buttigieg already appears to have benefited from what at first looked like a victory for him, showing significant momentum in the latest New Hampshire tracking poll.

For supporters of Mr. Sanders 鈥� who believed they were unfairly stymied by the Democratic establishment four years ago 鈥� it feels infuriatingly familiar.

鈥淚鈥檓 particularly concerned by establishment Democrats鈥� efforts to inhibit Bernie鈥檚 campaign,鈥� says Parker Dooley, a 鈥渄emocracy tourist鈥� from Virginia who has already cast a ballot for Mr. Sanders聽and is in New Hampshire with his wife to observe the state鈥檚 first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 11.聽

鈥淚 was going to say assassinate,鈥� Mr. Dooley adds, as other Sanders supporters snap pictures of his T-shirt featuring Mr. Sanders聽in a 鈥淏ack to the Future鈥� motif. 鈥淏ut maybe that鈥檚 too strong.鈥�

While it鈥檚 not uncommon for nomination battles to pit a left- or right-wing insurgency against a more moderate establishment, the Democratic Party鈥檚 overall leftward lurch in the wake of President Trump鈥檚 election has given its progressive wing new power. And at a time when distrust of institutions is already high, the sense of grievance among Sanders supporters about their candidate鈥檚 treatment could pose a significant problem for party unity if he fails to win the nomination again 鈥撀爌articularly if no one wins convincingly, which now seems entirely possible.

鈥淭he political energy of the party shifted left some time ago. And while the party resisted it in 2016, they鈥檙e going to have a much harder time this year,鈥� says Andrew Smith, director of the New Hampshire Survey Center in Durham. 鈥淪anders voters or activists are saying, 鈥楲ook, we tried it your way last time, and we got Donald Trump.鈥欌��

Ruptured trust

After 2016, many Sanders supporters came away feeling robbed, obstructed by a party machine that coalesced early around Mrs. Clinton and worked behind the scenes to preserve her advantage. Among their grievances was the Democratic National Committee鈥檚 decision to give Mrs. Clinton a greater degree of influence over its staffing and policy after she bailed out the indebted organization.

Another sore point was former DNC Chairwoman Donna Brazile鈥檚 sharing of CNN town hall topics with the Clinton campaign ahead of the televised events, giving the candidate extra time to prepare. This was revealed thanks to Russian hackers who procured thousands of DNC emails, which were published by WikiLeaks, revealing a pattern of bias against Mr. Sanders despite the organization鈥檚 proclaimed neutrality.聽One DNC communications official was quoted as suggesting that they promote a narrative about Mr. Sanders that 鈥淏ernie never ever had his act together, that his campaign was a mess.鈥� The DNC later apologized, but the damage was done.

At the 2016 Democratic National Convention, angry Sanders supporters launched protests and wore tape over their mouths to symbolize having been 鈥渟ilenced.鈥�

鈥淚 don鈥檛 trust the DNC,鈥� says Nico Gillespie, a college student waiting outside the Derry Opera House in Derry, New Hampshire, to hear Mr. Sanders speak on Feb. 5. 鈥淭hey want to delay [the Iowa results] so Pete Buttigieg can have the momentum.鈥�

Mr. Buttigieg, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, gave a victory speech Monday night before any official results were released. Those results have been delayed, due in part to technical problems with an app meant to help tally results according to new rules that were put in place after Sanders supporters complained about a lack of transparency in 2016. The Boston Globe/Suffolk University daily tracker poll shows Mr. Buttigieg has gotten an 8-point bounce since then, compared with only 1 point for Mr. Sanders.

More than 48 hours after the caucuses ended, the Iowa Democratic Party released updated figures with 97% of precincts reporting. They showed Mr. Buttigieg聽leading聽Mr. Sanders by only聽0.1% in state delegate equivalents, while Mr. Sanders was shown winning the popular vote by about 6,000 votes on the first alignment.

鈥淲e here in northern New England call that a victory,鈥� declared Mr. Sanders in Manchester on Thursday.

Minutes before he spoke, DNC Chair Tom Perez called for an immediate recanvass of the Iowa caucus results.聽

鈥淚 think what has happened with the Iowa Democratic Party is an outrage 鈥� that they were that unprepared, that they put forth such a complicated process, relied on untested technology,鈥� said Mr. Sanders.

When asked whether the current mess has caused him to doubt the results of the 2016 Iowa caucuses 鈥� in which he lost to Mrs. Clinton by just .25% 鈥� he responded:聽鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to revisit 2016.鈥澛犅�

He did, however, credit reforms that came about as a result of his campaign鈥檚 complaints last time around.聽鈥淭he fact that we now have clear results from the popular vote [in Iowa] is something that we fought for,鈥� he said.

Those reforms were specifically meant to help heal the breach between Mr. Sanders and the establishment wing of the party, which blamed the senator鈥檚 less-than-enthusiastic backing of Mrs. Clinton as contributing to the party鈥檚 loss to Mr. Trump. One of the biggest changes has to do with superdelegates, another sore spot from 2016. At this summer鈥檚 nominating convention, superdelegates will聽not be able to vote on the first ballot unless a candidate has already secured a majority of pledged delegates.

鈥淐ertainly there are grievances that the Sanders people had going back to the party in 2016, where it was very clear that the party鈥檚 thumb was on the scale in favor of Clinton,鈥澛爏ays Professor Smith. Nevertheless, he adds, 鈥減arties exist to win elections 鈥� if you don鈥檛 win elections, you鈥檙e out of business.鈥�

Style vs. substance

In 2016, the party didn鈥檛 see a self-proclaimed democratic socialist as able to win a national election. And many appear to have the same reservations in 2020.

The tension has as much to do with style as substance.

鈥淢y concern with Bernie is he never talks about what he鈥檚 accomplished in the Senate,鈥� says Camille Brown, waiting in line for a selfie with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at an event in Nashua. She notes that Mr. Sanders can claim very few concrete accomplishments after nearly 30 years in Congress. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 see him working with other senators. ... He has very much an attitude of 鈥榤y way or the highway.鈥欌��

Some Democrats see that same uncompromising 鈥� even combative 鈥� approach reflected in his supporters.

鈥淚t鈥檚 鈥榚ither my candidate or I鈥檓 not going to vote,鈥� which is not useful when we really need to unite and defeat Trump,鈥� says Caroline Yang, a soft-spoken mother of two from Massachusetts lingering at the Warren event after getting a selfie with her senator. She voted for Mr. Sanders in the 2016 primaries, and understands the fervor for him then, especially given the antipathy for a candidate with as much baggage as Mrs. Clinton. But Ms. Yang sees far better options this time.

鈥淎mong the candidates, I think [Ms. Warren] is the one 鈥� she has the plans, she has the heart,鈥� she says.

Ms. Brown echoes that thought almost precisely. In the end, though, she鈥檒l support whoever is on the Democratic ticket. 鈥淲ould I vote for [Mr. Sanders] if it came down to it? Yes.鈥�

Still, these measured comments don鈥檛 come close to matching the fervor of the Sanders supporters back in Derry.

鈥淏ernie is going to crush this primary,鈥� says Mr. Dooley.