海角大神

The cycle of mass shootings in America, followed by calls for gun reform and ultimately stalemate in Congress, is well-rehearsed. And chances are, that cycle will repeat in the wake of last weekend鈥檚 back-to-back massacres in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio.

But the conditions exist for an alternate scenario to play out.

A growing number of congressional Republicans are speaking out for reform, and multiple bipartisan alliances in the Senate are working on proposals. President Donald Trump, an ally of gun rights advocates, has聽also voiced support for certain gun measures since the latest shootings. And the National Rifle Association (NRA), while still powerful, is facing internal turmoil and financial challenges.聽

Furthermore, polls show overwhelming public support聽鈥� including among Republicans 鈥� for certain gun measures, such as expanded background checks and so-called red flag provisions that would restrict access to firearms when people are deemed dangerous. For Mr. Trump, there鈥檚 also a political incentive: He likes to be seen tackling problems, and could benefit by signing a measure that would play well in suburban battlegrounds.

In short, it could be a 鈥淣ixon in China鈥� moment 鈥� a reference to how the 37th president was politically able to visit China only by first establishing his bona fides as anti-communist.聽

The potential for Mr. Trump to have such a moment on guns is 鈥渁bsolutely鈥� there, says Ryan Clancy, chief strategist for the centrist group No Labels. 鈥淗e has credibility among people who support gun rights that a Democratic president might not have. The big question is, will he follow through?鈥�

Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, a moderate Republican, also sees the potential for action on guns.聽

鈥淧olitically, the White House is desperate for bipartisan victories,鈥� says Mr. Curbelo. 鈥淚t鈥檚 obvious from polling throughout the country that the president has the strong support of his base 鈥� and that鈥檚 it. If he gets a mainstream Democratic opponent, that won鈥檛 bode well for him. This is an opportunity.鈥�

In the past, Mr. Trump has often seemed amenable to gun reform, Mr. Curbelo adds. 鈥淗e has expressed it in the past 鈥� only to allow the NRA to veto him,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his time can be different. It鈥檚 his choice to do the right thing or to cave to a segment of his political base.鈥�

Yet some observers push back on the idea that Mr. Trump can rest easy with his supporters on the gun issue, even now. The president didn鈥檛 come into politics as a vocal supporter of gun rights, and he has a complicated relationship with guns.

鈥淗e was never pro-gun before he was president,鈥� says Richard Feldman, a former NRA lobbyist and president of the Independent Firearm Owners Association.

In one way, Mr. Trump is at odds with a key portion of his pro-gun base 鈥� hunters.聽

鈥淚鈥檓 not a hunter and don鈥檛 approve of killing animals,鈥� Mr. Trump tweeted in 2012. 鈥淚 strongly disagree with my sons who are hunters.鈥澛犅�

He has repeated that sentiment since becoming president. Yet Mr. Trump has owned handguns. In 2012, the future president acknowledged in an interview with The Washington Times that he had a concealed-carry permit and owned guns.聽

It鈥檚 not clear if he still owns guns; the White House does not discuss this. Chris Ruddy, CEO of the conservative Newsmax Media and a longtime friend of Mr. Trump, says that he was never aware of him carrying a gun, pre-presidency, nor has Mr. Trump ever shown him a gun that he owned.聽

鈥淧resident Trump has a more nuanced view on the gun issue than most people believe,鈥� Mr. Ruddy tells the Monitor. 鈥淏efore he was running for office, he was typical of many people in New York that didn鈥檛 like the idea of a complete, unrestricted ownership of guns.鈥�

But 鈥渙ver time,鈥� Mr. Ruddy adds, 鈥渉e鈥檚 gotten closer to that issue and been an advocate for Second Amendment issues.鈥澛�

As for the NRA, Mr. Feldman doesn鈥檛 believe the gun organization would ever 鈥渦nendorse鈥� him.聽

鈥淐an he push the NRA around? A little bit,鈥� he says, noting that the Trump administration eventually enacted a ban on bump stocks despite pushback from the NRA.

Such devices, which make semi-automatic weapons fire continuously, were used by the shooter in the October 2017 massacre in Las Vegas. After a delay, the Trump administration announced the ban in December 2018, and it went into effect in March.聽

Still, discussing the diminished clout of the NRA misses the point, says a Republican strategist with ties to the White House. 鈥淭he NRA鈥檚 strength doesn鈥檛 necessarily derive from money,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he gun community is tightknit 鈥� and they鈥檙e single-issue voters.鈥�

In Congress, a bipartisan proposal by Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., to create a federal grant program that encourages states to adopt red flag laws was seen early in the week as having the most promise. In Mr. Trump鈥檚 address to the nation Monday morning, it was the one gun measure he mentioned.聽

But by midweek, the proposal to support red flag laws 鈥� which use 鈥渆xtreme risk protection orders鈥� to take firearms away from people ruled by a judge to be dangerous 鈥� was facing complications. Democrat Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, declared Wednesday that any red flag legislation must be accompanied by a Democratic House bill requiring universal background checks on gun purchases.聽

Mr. Trump, for his part, had suggested 鈥渕arrying鈥� background check legislation with immigration reform in a tweet Monday morning, but dropped the idea in his televised address. On Wednesday morning, he declared to reporters 鈥渁 great appetite鈥� by both Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill for background checks, though by day鈥檚 end, that did not appear to be the case. He also dismissed the possibility of an assault weapons ban.

Some gun control supporters still see the failure to enact legislation after the 2012 Newtown, Connecticut, massacre 鈥� whose toll included 20 first graders 鈥� as telling. If that didn鈥檛 move the needle, the thinking goes, nothing will. But one expert pushes back.聽

鈥淭his whole idea that these children were killed at Sandy Hook [Elementary School] and nothing changed is just wrong,鈥� says Kristin Goss, a professor of public policy and political science at Duke University and author of books on gun policy. 鈥淎 lot changed, but it鈥檚 changing slowly and largely outside the media spotlight.鈥澛�

Since Newtown, gun control groups have grown in number, membership, and financial clout. 鈥淭here鈥檚 just a lot more money, which matters,鈥� Ms. Goss says. 鈥淲e decry all this money in politics, but it鈥檚 also opened up spaces for the gun violence prevention movement to play a role in electoral politics.鈥�

Even the partisan divide on firearms could be helpful to the movement, she says. 鈥淭hat, in a way, creates space for it to become a major campaign issue,鈥� she says. 鈥淒emocrats in particular ... are more likely to make it a marquee issue 鈥� to run on it instead of running from it.鈥澛�

But that analysis also suggests no major legislation before the 2020 elections, especially if there鈥檚 no push for compromise by the three top political players 鈥� Mr. Trump, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Republican Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader.聽

鈥淧articularly leading up to an election, sometimes you鈥檇 rather have the issue than the solution,鈥� says a veteran Republican congressional aide.

Still, with each massacre, the outcry grows. GOP Rep. Mike Turner, who represents Dayton and whose daughter was close to the shooting, now supports new gun restrictions. Another Republican, Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, also raised his voice for the first time,聽calling聽for more limits on access to firearms.

Mr. Ruddy, Mr. Trump鈥檚 friend, sees potential movement by the president on this issue.聽

鈥淚 have to think 鈥� and he hasn鈥檛 talked to me on this 鈥� that at some point in the future he will see some pathway for some limitation on semi-automatic weapons being easily available,鈥� Mr. Ruddy says. 鈥淗ow that might take form, I don鈥檛 know. But I do think he might see some limitations and more appropriate background checks.鈥�