海角大神

Sally Mattson pulls out of a Starbucks at the Westchester Commons shopping complex in central Virginia, her trunk stocked with campaign literature. She鈥檚 about to go knock on doors for a Democrat who has a real chance of winning a House seat that鈥檚 been under Republican control for nearly five decades.

The last time voters here sent a Democrat to Congress, Richard Nixon was president, and the sprawling retail center that is disappearing in Ms. Mattson鈥檚 rear-view mirror didn鈥檛 even exist.

As the former nurse heads out on the highway that connects the suburb of Midlothian to downtown Richmond, green fields quickly give way to generously sized homes, and then smaller ones. Mattson turns into a modest neighborhood where she will canvass for Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operative who is seeking office for the first time. Ms. Spanberger is challenging Republican Rep. Dave Brat, the tea-party candidate who four years ago unseated House majority leader Eric Cantor in a primary upset that stunned the GOP establishment.

Now Congressman Brat is facing a revolt of his own, from suburbanite women voters. Which is encouraging liberal foot-soldiers like Mattson, as she goes door to door, advocating for a female Democrat in a race ranked 鈥渢oss-up鈥� by the independent Cook Political Report.

Indeed, if Republicans lose control of the House in November, it will be in large part because of shifts taking place among college-educated, white women in suburban districts like Virginia鈥檚 7^th. Once reliably Republican, these women 鈥� whom one pollster dubs 鈥渢he Panera moms,鈥� for the salad-and-soup chain they visit with their kids after soccer games 鈥� appear to be moving en masse toward the Democrats.

鈥淪uburban environments are perilous for the Republicans right now,鈥� says Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg.

A recent survey of the 69 most competitive House districts nationwide 鈥� many of which are suburban 鈥� shows a Democratic edge propelled by women. The poll, conducted by The Washington Post and George Mason University鈥檚 Schar School, finds women voters in those districts backing Democrats over Republicans by 55 to 42 percent. Among white women with college degrees, however, the margin in favor of Democrats is 23 points. In 2016, college-educated white women chose Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by just six points.聽 聽

In some districts, the leftward shift is also a reflection of demographic changes. Looking at Virginia鈥檚 7^th, which wraps around the outer edge of Richmond in a semi-circle and extends into more rural areas, Mr. Farnsworth describes a first wave of suburbanization, in which Chesterfield County 鈥� where Mattson is knocking on doors 鈥� became an area of white flight from the city and a Republican enclave. Now it鈥檚 undergoing a second wave, of people looking for affordable housing. In addition to the detached, single family homes, townhouses and apartments have sprung up close to the highways.

When a suburban area becomes denser, 鈥渋t turns less Republican,鈥� says Farnsworth. The change has affected the political leanings of the district as a whole. In 2012, the 7^th聽district, as currently configured, backed Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama by 11 percentage points. Four years later, Donald Trump won the district by just 6 points (and lost Virginia as a whole, the only state in the South he didn鈥檛 capture). In 2017, GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie won the district by 4 points 鈥� but lost Chesterfield County to now-Gov. Ralph Northam (D).

The 2017 election in Virginia was notable as the first statewide test of voter sentiment since Mr. Trump was elected 鈥� and Democrats not only elected a governor, but knocked 15 Republicans from the state House of Delegates, missing a takeover by a hair鈥檚 breadth.

Anger after 2016

Demographic changes played a role in that election 鈥� but so did voter anger in the wake of 2016. Mattson can attest to that. Before Trump entered the Oval Office, she had sat on the political sidelines. Like many Americans, she says she couldn鈥檛 name her representative in the state house or what voting district she lived in. But after Trump鈥檚 election, she joined an activist group, the Liberal Women of Chesterfield County, and she鈥檚 been volunteering for Democratic campaigns ever since.

鈥淪uburban women are determined. They鈥檙e angry. They, like me, wish that they had gotten involved earlier,鈥� says Mattson. The morning after Trump won, 鈥淚 woke up and thought, 鈥業鈥檓 not waking up again the day after an election and being ashamed that I didn鈥檛 do enough.鈥� 鈥�

Quentin Kidd, a political scientist and pollster at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, credits the liberal women鈥檚 group for turning Chesterfield County blue in Virginia鈥檚 2017 gubernatorial election. 鈥淭hat group popped up literally the first week after the 2016 election,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd they never went away.鈥�

The Spanberger campaign is counting on those women to deliver her to victory in a district the Democrats have targeted for flipping in their nationwide 鈥淩ed-to-Blue鈥� campaign. 鈥淭he real backbone of our campaign is the strength of our volunteers, the majority of whom are women,鈥� said Spanberger in an interview last month.

The candidate could consider herself one of them. Before 2016, Spanberger 鈥� who has worked as a federal law enforcement officer for the US Postal Inspection Service and for the CIA overseas 鈥� was only involved in advocacy as a mom against gun violence and a volunteer at polling places. But after the election, she found herself increasingly disturbed that everything from health care to protecting children in schools was becoming 鈥渉yper-partisan.鈥� She entered the 鈥淓merge鈥� program that trains women Democrats to run for public office.

In her ads and on the campaign trail, she presents herself as a problem-solver who wants to restore civil discourse and work across the aisle. The No. 1 issue she hears about from voters is health care, and she鈥檚 put that front and center with an ad about a Virginia mom who is switching her vote from Brat to Spanberger over concerns about coverage for pre-existing conditions.

No walk in the park

Bob Holsworth, a veteran political observer in Richmond, cautions that while Spanberger has a 鈥減retty impressive鈥� resume, 鈥渢his is no walk in the park for Democrats.鈥� About a third of the district does not fit the suburban mold, but is more rural 鈥� and Trump won handily in those areas.

That much was clear at the Chesterfield County Fair last month, when a steady stream of passersby at the Republican booth expressed their support for Congressman Brat and President Trump.

鈥淚鈥檓 for conservative values and small government,鈥� says Donna Waters, wearing a Dave Brat sticker. Keeping the House under Republican control is 鈥渧ery important鈥� says this mom who works for the state police. She points to the strong economy as Trump鈥檚 doing, but adds that the 鈥渉orrible liberal media鈥� and Democrats 鈥渨ill never give him credit for it.鈥�

She sounds much like the congressman himself, an economics professor turned renegade politician. A member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, Brat touts his tough stance against the GOP establishment, illegal immigration, and the Affordable Care Act. And he repeatedly underscores the strong economy and the Republican tax cuts.

鈥淪mall businesses just couldn鈥檛 be happier,鈥� he said in an interview before House members left Washington for the final stretch of the campaign trail. As he puts it, he鈥檚 campaigning on 鈥渞esults instead of resistance.鈥� It鈥檚 a theme being voiced in close races across the country.

While many of Spanberger鈥檚 supporters may be angry at the president, she uses Trump鈥檚 name judiciously as she tries to win over moderates, independents, and some crossover Republicans. Her ads have a calm tone to them.

Still, she sounded much sharper at a recent debate as she fought off Brat鈥檚 attacks that she is for sanctuary cities and a $32 trillion 鈥済overnment takeover鈥� of health care.聽

鈥淎 vote for my opponent will be a vote for the Nancy Pelosi liberal agenda,鈥� he said. 鈥淒o you want to turn Richmond into San Francisco?鈥澛燬panberger, like several Democrats trying to win in swing districts, has pledged not to vote for Congresswoman Pelosi as Democratic leader 鈥渦nder any circumstances.鈥�

She鈥檚 also refusing corporate PAC money 鈥� not that she needs it. Donations have been pouring into her campaign, which raised nearly $3.6 million in the last quarter, three times what Brat raised, and more than he spent on his last two campaigns combined. Outside money has been flowing for both candidates, whose competing ads are saturating the airwaves.

鈥楾he women are in my grill鈥�

Democrats can take back the House without this seat, says Farnsworth. But if they succeed in wresting it back, it will likely indicate a big win for them on election night. And unquestionably, he says, women voters will have a lot to do with it.

In the interview, Brat acknowledged it has been 鈥渉ard to counter鈥� the energy of the women opposing him. Earlier in the campaign he made an ill-fated remark when he complained about rowdy, disruptive town halls, saying that 鈥渢he women are in my grill, no matter where I go.鈥� He later stopped doing town halls altogether, opting instead for smaller gatherings with constituents.

That irritates Jane Robison, a retiree having coffee at the Midlothian Starbucks: 鈥淗e鈥檚 excluding people who aren鈥檛 in his tribe.鈥�

But what about his point that the town halls had become counterproductive yelling fests?

Ms. Robison has an answer to that. 鈥淚f you make the weather, don鈥檛 cry when it rains.鈥�