海角大神

Mo Elleithee remembers election night 2016 as if it were yesterday. The Democratic commentator was at Fox News headquarters in New York, watching the numbers come in and going on-air throughout the evening with other political analysts.

鈥淲e are all sitting there in the green room, in between hits, hovering around laptops and iPads, looking at returns,鈥� says Mr. Elleithee, the former communications director at the Democratic National Committee (DNC). 鈥淭here was a lot of confusion and surprise.鈥�

Elleithee鈥檚 wife was also in New York 鈥� for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton鈥檚 victory party. The election would wrap up by 11:30 or so, and then he would head over and they鈥檇 hit the party circuit together. At least that was the plan.

鈥淪he was sitting at the party, texting me as the mood was changing there, and I was texting her as the mood was changing over at Fox,鈥� says Elleithee, director of the nonpartisan Institute of Politics and Public Service at Georgetown University since 2015. 鈥淧eople thought, the only way we lose is if the bottom falls out. Well, the bottom fell out.鈥�

For Democrats today, the shock of Donald Trump鈥檚 election has hardly abated. They remember the feeling of disorientation, the recriminations, the tears. They remember where they were, even what they were wearing, in the way people remember certain details of signal moments in their lives.

The 2018 midterms are now two weeks away 鈥� the first opportunity since 2016 for Democrats to vote en masse against President Trump, if only by proxy. Their party should do well. Polls show the Democrats are well-positioned to retake the House, if not the Senate, and lots of governorships. Historically, the party out of power tends to gain seats in the midterms, and Mr. Trump has a knack for antagonizing large portions of the electorate.

But then for Democrats, the flashbacks to 2016 kick in. What if the polls are wrong? What if 鈥渢heir鈥� voters don鈥檛 turn out? What if all those big Trump rallies in the home stretch 鈥� this time, with the message of 鈥淜avanaugh, caravan, and common sense鈥澛犫�� spur massive GOP turnout?

Tightening in the polls at the end of a campaign is natural. So are pre-election jitters. But in 2018, that searing memory of two years ago has many Democrats on extra high alert, wondering if they鈥檝e done everything possible to succeed on Nov. 6.

Some Democrats are trying to turn the temptation to freak out into a motivator.

鈥淩emember that sick feeling the morning after the 2016 election when you second-guessed yourself & asked what else you could鈥檝e done to prevent @realDonaldTrump鈥檚 victory?鈥� Miami Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi tweeted last week.聽鈥淵ou better be asking yourselves NOW what you鈥檙e going to do in these 3 weeks before NOV 6th to #SaveDemocracy.鈥�

Elleithee sees a lot of Democrats around the country with 鈥渘ervous energy鈥� 鈥� and that鈥檚 a good thing, he says. It鈥檚 the sign of a hard lesson, taken to heart.

鈥�2016 taught Democrats not to take anything for granted, and that even when it looks like it鈥檚 going your way, you鈥檝e got to assume it鈥檚 not,鈥� says Elleithee, who was a spokesman for Clinton in her first presidential campaign. 鈥淭hat is shaking off some of the complacency that Democrats often feel.鈥�

Millennials in tears聽

Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster, has seen her share of electoral agony and ecstasy through the years 鈥� the rise of Ronald Reagan, then the turn to Bill Clinton, followed by the heartbreaking Bush v. Gore loss of 2000 and the thrill of seeing the United States elect its first African-American president.

As Election Day 2016 neared, Ms. Lake grew increasingly concerned.

鈥淚 thought Hillary would win, but I also thought it would be a lot closer than people thought,鈥� says Lake, whose firm worked for a pro-Clinton outside group funded by independent expenditures. 鈥淚 thought we were making a big mistake ignoring places like Michigan.鈥�

On election night, Lake decided at the last minute not to travel to New York, and stayed with her staff in Washington. She鈥檚 glad she did. When Michigan went to Trump, that signaled the Democrats鈥� 鈥渂lue wall鈥� of the upper Midwest was crumbling. Lake knew it was over.

The Millennials were all 鈥渏ust so bereft,鈥� she says. The young women, in particular, were in tears. It was especially difficult, too, for the people of color on staff.

鈥淭he Millennials were formed by the victories of the Obama years,鈥� Lake says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e not used to losing 鈥� and not used to losing to someone so horrific, by their values.鈥�

Lake鈥檚 staff was also devastated by the media critique of pre-election polls, which had shown Clinton ahead. In fact, most of the polls were close to right:聽On election eve, Clinton led in national polls by an average of three percentage points, and her margin of victory in the popular vote was two percent. But for 77,744 votes cast for Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, handing him victory in the Electoral College, Clinton would indeed have won.

It was some statewide polling that proved problematic in 2016, especially in key states. In Wisconsin, the final polls showed Clinton winning by an average 6.5 percent; in Michigan, Clinton was up on election eve by 3.6 points; and in Pennsylvania, she led by 2.1 points.

As even pollsters will tell you, polling is both an art and a science. There鈥檚 always a margin of error 鈥� and the possibility of an 鈥渙utlier鈥� result. Which means candidates, strategists, and the voters themselves can鈥檛 rely on polls with absolute certainty.

In recent weeks, some of the聽national polls pitting a generic Democrat against a generic Republican for the House have been tightening, while others show the Democratic lead comfortably within the necessary margin to retake the House. But nobody鈥檚 comfortable.

Some Democrats, like national party chair Tom Perez, have stopped using the phrase 鈥渂lue wave鈥� if only to lower expectations. A majority is a majority, no matter the margin.

鈥淲e should remember that the average wave in a midterm election is 24 seats鈥� in the House, one seat more than Democrats need to retake the lower chamber, Lake says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 definitely moving back more toward the average. I still think we鈥檒l end up taking the House, but not with the number of seats that we were once predicting.鈥�

Lake shares the worry of Democratic strategists everywhere 鈥� that young and minority voters won鈥檛 turn out in high enough numbers, the party鈥檚 Achilles鈥� Heel, especially in midterms.

鈥淭here are groups of our voters, like Millennials, that are as interested in the next protest as they are in the next election,鈥� she warns.

But while Lake is worried, she鈥檚 not panicking. The key, she says, is to turn that nervous energy into votes.

Outside the Beltway聽

Don Fowler, a former DNC chair, is watching the final weeks of the midterms unfold from his home base in Columbia, S.C. 鈥� and feeling 鈥渁larmed.鈥� His word.

Two years ago, Mr. Fowler says, the campaign was 鈥渟hort on passion and emotion and pride, on pointing the way for people who were looking for inspiration.鈥� He was worried then, but was 鈥渘ot as alarmed as I am now.鈥�

Today, he says, the Democrats have no clear message 鈥� despite a president whom he describes as 鈥渁n absolute profligate, paranoid liar.鈥�

鈥淗e does things that betray a gross ignorance in foreign policy and fiscal policy and much of domestic policy, and we鈥檝e got a whole field to attack him on, but nobody does,鈥� says Fowler, who served as DNC chair during the Clinton administration, from 1995 to 1997. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if they鈥檙e afraid of him, or what.鈥�

Still, he鈥檚 hopeful about Democrats鈥� prospects in individual races, such as Florida鈥檚 gubernatorial and Senate races, and the governor鈥檚 race in neighboring Georgia. He even professes optimism about his native South Carolina, where he says the Democrat running to unseat Gov. Henry McMaster (R) could pull off an upset.

鈥淲e鈥檙e behind a bit now, but we have a good candidate,鈥� says Fowler of state Rep. James Smith, in a race the Cook Political Report ranks as likely to go Republican.

Maybe the answer, then, for anxious Democrats is to focus on races close to home 鈥� races where they can have an impact on the ground. Or at least keep busy.

In Scranton, Pa., Evie Rafalko McNulty,聽the county recorder of deeds and a national Democratic committee-woman, is a ball of energy focused on getting out the vote on Nov. 6. She doesn鈥檛 believe 2018 will be a repeat of the previous election.

鈥淚n 2016, people were hurting, and believed Trump was change,鈥� says Ms. McNulty. But many of the people who voted for Trump back then are unhappy with the 鈥渢ax cuts for the wealthy,鈥� she says. 鈥淭hey are the people I see and work with every day.鈥�

Ask McNulty about election night two years ago, and the first thing she says is, 鈥淚 even remember what I was wearing.鈥� (For the record, she had on jeans, a white crew neck shirt, blue vest, and blue scarf. The Republican county commissioner, standing next to her at the county voter registration department, wore red 鈥� making for a patriotic combo.)

Then came the tears, when it hit her that Trump had won. 鈥淚 was not crying because I was sad,鈥� she recalls. 鈥淚 was crying because, oh my God, what鈥檚 going to happen to us?鈥�

In retrospect, the signs of lackluster enthusiasm were evident to McNulty on election eve. Even native son Joe Biden, the former vice president, wasn鈥檛 inspiring the crowds.

鈥淲ell, we see him a lot 鈥� the scrappy kid from Scranton,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t was a Sunday morning, and people were like, 鈥榊eah, can鈥檛 do it.鈥� 鈥澛犅�

In Wisconsin, another critical battleground both then and now, Democratic Party chair Martha Laning says her party is doing everything it can to get its voters to turn out 鈥� and has been reaching out to voters since last year.

On election night two years ago, she was at former Sen. Russ Feingold鈥檚 watch party, where Democrats hoped to celebrate the progressive leader鈥檚 recapture of the seat he had lost six years earlier to a conservative Republican, Ron Johnson.

But 鈥減retty early on, we knew something was really wrong,鈥� Ms. Laning says. Senator Johnson won reelection.聽聽

Now, she says, 鈥淲e鈥檙e really committed here to running right through the finish line. Nobody will stop till 8 p.m. on Nov. 6.鈥�

Wisconsin was also key to the 2016 election night memory of Elleithee, the former Democratic official. When Johnson was declared the winner in his Senate race, Elleithee knew the presidential election was also over. Not enough Democrats had turned out, plain and simple.

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 draw a direct parallel with 2016, but I do think聽2016 opened the eyes of a lot of Democrats about the challenges of being complacent and overconfident,鈥� Elleithee says.

But, he adds, it also 鈥渁woke a positive energy 鈥� toward making sure you never take your foot off the gas.鈥�