海角大神

In about three months, voters will head to the ballot box for the first midterm elections under President Trump 鈥� midterms both parties are billing as crucial for the direction of the country. Here鈥檚 a refresher on what to keep in mind ahead of Nov. 6.

Q: What鈥檚 at stake in the 2018 midterms?

This vote represents the first nationwide referendum on the Trump administration, where voters can collectively send a message about how satisfied they are with the direction of the government, and whether they want a change in course. If Democrats gain control of either chamber of Congress, it would effectively shut down the Republican legislative agenda, since any legislation would need Democratic votes to pass. A Democratic majority would also present a much stronger counterweight to Mr. Trump.聽

Republicans currently hold a 236-to-193 advantage in the House (six House seats are vacant) and a 51-to-49 majority in the Senate. That edge gives the GOP the power to pass legislation like last year鈥檚 $1.5 trillion tax cut and to confirm Supreme Court nominees without Democratic support.

If Democrats gain control of the Senate, in addition to potential legislative gridlock, future Supreme Court picks and other judicial appointees could run into a similar challenge. If they take the House, Democratic leadership could feel empowered to start impeachment proceedings against the president. Committee chairmanships would also flip, which would likely mean more investigations into the Trump administration.

Q: At this point, how likely is it that a 鈥渂lue wave鈥� will take place?

The latest from political analysts suggests that things are looking good for Democrats, at least in the House. The party has held a consistent lead on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they鈥檇 vote for without naming specific candidates and is considered a good predictor of the popular vote. Democrats are also doing better in the money department, with challengers聽eclipsing Republican incumbents in 56 House districts during second-quarter fundraising.

Recent special elections 鈥� from Democrat Conor Lamb鈥檚 victory in Pennsylvania earlier this year to the whisker-close race in Ohio鈥檚 solidly red 12th district this month 鈥� also bode well for Democrats鈥� chances in November, political analysts say.

History shows that the incumbent president鈥檚 party tends to lose seats during midterm elections. Since 1934, the president鈥檚 party has given up an average of 28 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate during midterms. With the GOP defending more than 40 open seats in November, 鈥渢he battle for the Republicans to keep the House is very real,鈥� former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said at a recent Monitor Breakfast.

It鈥檚 more of an uphill climb in the Senate this year, where Democrats need to hold 10 seats in states that Mr. Trump won in 2016, plus take two more from Republicans. If a 鈥渨ave鈥� is coming 鈥� and there鈥檚 no consensus yet on the definition of a wave election 鈥� it鈥檚 more likely to happen in the House.

But even that could change by Nov. 6.

鈥淒emocrats capturing the majority is not a slam dunk,鈥� Kyle Klondik writes for the University of Virginia鈥檚 Crystal Ball, a top election forecaster.

Q: Which races should we be watching?

With all 435 seats in the House up for election, it鈥檚 no surprise that there are plenty of close contests to keep an eye on. Axios identified five House races 鈥� in Iowa, Florida, Texas, California, and Maine 鈥� that are tighter than most. All five seats are currently held by Republicans but have begun inching toward Democrats. The reasons range from diversifying populations and declining Republican voter registrations, as in California鈥檚 48th, to a strong union tradition that could be leveraged by a Conor Lamb-style candidate, as in Maine鈥檚 2nd district. 聽

As for the Senate, political analysts are keeping close tabs on Arizona, where the departure of Sen. Jeff Flake (R) could serve as a test for whether demographic changes might swing the state to the left. Florida鈥檚 Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is facing a tough road to retain his seat against Republican Gov. Rick Scott, in what Bloomberg columnist Albert Hunt has dubbed 鈥渢he mother of all Senate races.鈥澛營n Texas, Democrat Beto O鈥橰ourke, is proving an unexpectedly strong competitor against Sen. Ted Cruz, consistently outraising the Republican 鈥� but the state hasn鈥檛 elected a Democrat to statewide office in 25 years.

Other notable contests include Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, where Democratic incumbents are facing tough reelection prospects; Tennessee, where a popular former governor might have a shot at becoming the state鈥檚 first Democratic senator since 1990; and Nevada, where Republican Sen. Dean Heller is considered the most vulnerable incumbent among both parties.聽

Q: What about governors鈥� mansions and state legislatures?

Huge Republican gains in state legislatures and governors鈥� mansions in 2010 and 2014 allowed the GOP to enact policies at the state level when they couldn鈥檛 in Washington. They also gave the party an opportunity to lead redistricting efforts following the 2010 Census, since state lawmakers draw redistricting maps and governors approve them.

Today, Republicans control both chambers of Congress, 33 governors鈥� mansions, and 56 percent of all state legislative seats. Democrats will have to make a dent in those seats if they want to have any say in redistricting after the 2020 Census and rebuild a base of power for elections over the next decade.

The midterms could give them that chance: Republicans are defending 26 of the 36 gubernatorial seats up for grabs. More than 80 percent of state legislative seats across the country are also in play 鈥� and here, as in Congress, seats held by the incumbent president鈥檚 party are more vulnerable.

鈥淲e are playing heavy defense,鈥� Jon Thompson, communications director with the Republican Governors Association, told The Washington Post, 鈥渂ut there are a strong handful of states that we plan to play offense in.鈥�

Q: There鈥檚 been a lot of talk about first-time candidates, especially among women, this cycle. What other notable firsts have we seen so far?

Among the biggest talking points ahead of the November midterms is the record number of women running for office this year. According to the Center for American Women and Politics:

• 476 filed for candidacy in the House;
• 54 filed to run in the Senate;
• 62 filed to run for governor;
• 119 filed for candidacy in other statewide offices;
• and more than 2,600 filed to run in their state legislatures. 聽

Though there are plenty of Republicans among their ranks, the majority of these new candidates are running as Democrats 鈥� spurred, analysts say, by the election of Donald Trump and the rise of the #MeToo movement, among other things.

But the firsts go beyond women running for office.

Last week, Democrats in Vermont nominated Christine Hallquist in their gubernatorial primary, making her the first transgender candidate to be nominated for the governorship by a major party. In Georgia, Stacey Abrams could potentially become the country鈥檚 first black female governor. Former Dallas County sheriff Lupe Valdez became the first Latina and open lesbian to top the Democratic ticket in the Texas gubernatorial race.

Michigan Democrats 鈥撀爓ho have nominated women for every statewide office on the November ballot 鈥撀燼lso chose former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib as the unopposed candidate to represent the state鈥檚 13th district. She will be the first Muslim woman to serve in Congress.

鈥淚t鈥檚 historic,鈥� California Rep. Anna Eshoo (D), who was elected to the House in 1992 鈥� the original 鈥淵ear of the Woman鈥� 鈥� told Politico. 鈥淭his year a lot of unspoken but tough walls, I think, have come tumbling down.鈥�