海角大神

Jonathan Rosero knows who鈥檚 got his vote in Maryland鈥檚 Democratic primary for governor.

Still, he鈥檚 excited that the top two contenders for the nomination are black.

鈥淚t would be making history that we might have an African-American governor,鈥� says Mr. Rosero, a local veterinarian, as he waited for Ben Jealous to make an appearance at a get-out-the-vote event in Langley Park last week. 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 hurt to have those kinds of choices.鈥�

Mr. Jealous, a former NAACP president, and Prince George鈥檚 County executive Rushern Baker emerged in聽a June 10 poll聽as frontrunners in the state鈥檚 crowded Democratic primary field.

Their showdown Tuesday聽comes on the heels of Stacey Abrams鈥檚 momentous nomination last month as the first black female gubernatorial candidate in Georgia. And it follows a series of historic wins by minority candidates in 2017, including African-American lieutenant governors in Virginia and New Jersey. Many of these wins were propelled by a strong turnout among black voters.

Together, political analysts say, they signal what could be a shift in the Democratic Party鈥檚 strategy as the nation鈥檚 electorate grows increasingly diverse: Instead of prioritizing white swing voters, who wound up electing President Trump in 2016, why not focus more on energizing black voters, like those who twice handed Barack Obama the White House?聽

鈥淭here will be some point when the gains of appealing to minority voters 鈥� either by making appeals to them directly in a more effective way or by nominating or supporting a candidate they identify with 鈥� start to outweigh the losses or potential losses of white voters,鈥� says Matt Mongiello, a political scientist at McDaniel College in Westminster, Md. 鈥淸Democrats are] trying to figure out if this is that moment.鈥�

Governorships are especially key if Democrats want to gain more influence at the state level. Republicans currently hold 33 governor鈥檚 mansions and 56 percent of all state legislative seats. A win for Jealous, Mr. Baker, or Ms. Abrams in the fall would not only flip their states at the gubernatorial level, they say; it would also help prove to black voters that the party is invested in building coalitions that include leaders who look like them.

鈥淣obody is saying that [governors] should always be African American,鈥� says Andra Gillespie, who teaches political science at Emory University in Atlanta. 鈥淏ut 鈥� when this only happens once in a blue moon, it does raise larger questions about whether or not blacks, when they鈥檙e running for office, are taken seriously as leaders, especially in states where Democrats routinely hold power.鈥�

Running for statewide office is challenging for any candidate. Local officials need only appeal to a city or county, and even members of the US House of Representatives have only to worry about their district. A governor 鈥� or a senator 鈥� has to speak to the concerns of an entire state and all its diversity.

For black candidates, that challenge is compounded by electoral makeup. Most states are still majority white and none is majority black. 鈥淔rom a purely numbers standpoint, you can鈥檛 get voted into office just on the black vote,鈥� Professor Gillespie says. Even in a state that鈥檚, say, 30 percent African-American, a black candidate will have to put together a non-black coalition that鈥檚 willing to support him or her, she says. That鈥檚 a challenge in Deep South states, where African-Americans make up a significant part of the electorate, but where Republicans outnumber Democrats.

Even blue states have struggled to place black candidates in statewide office. Voters have only ever elected 10 black US senators and two black governors 鈥� Doug Wilder (D) of Virginia, who served from 1990 to 1994, and Deval Patrick (D) of Massachusetts, in office from 2007 to 2015.

Bias a major hurdle

Analysts say bias, both real and perceived, is a major hurdle. Some voters simply don鈥檛 want to vote for a candidate because of their race or gender. More often, however, people will decide not to support a minority candidate because they think that person鈥檚 chances of winning are slimmer, Professor Mongiello says. Voters may think: 鈥� 鈥業 don鈥檛 want to waste my vote or money on a candidate of color in a state where people are not going to accept that,鈥� 鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat [attitude] adds up.鈥�

The result is a self-fulfilling prophecy: When voters hesitate to cast a ballot for a candidate because he or she seems less likely to win, it decreases the candidate鈥檚 actual chances of winning. And candidates, especially those already holding elected positions, often know that and avoid running altogether. Why risk losing?

Former Georgia Rep. Denise Majette (D) did it, surprising everybody in 2004 by running for a Senate seat vacated by Zell Miller despite a lack of name recognition and statewide fundraising apparatus. Though she became the first black woman to be nominated for the US Senate in Georgia, she lost by 20 points to Republican Johnny Isakson in the general election. 鈥淪he hasn鈥檛 held political office since,鈥� Gillespie says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the risk.鈥�

For some, the only way to break that cycle is to have more black candidates running and winning. In his book 鈥淏rown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority,鈥澛燬teve Phillips聽contends that the Democratic Party has failed to capitalize on Obama鈥檚 example, and has taken for granted the notion that black voters will always stick with Democrats.

鈥淏lacks supporting Democrats is not a given,鈥� says Mr. Phillips, co-founder of the San Francisco-based political organization Democracy in Color. 鈥淭his policy of benign neglect poses a real danger.鈥�

But others argue Democrats ignored working-class whites to their detriment in 2016, and that continuing to do so while focusing more on African-Americans just doesn鈥檛 add up. While black turnout for Hillary Clinton was lower than it had been for President Obama, she also did terribly with whites without a college degree, losing them by 31 points, according to聽a report聽by the Center for American Progress.

鈥淚f Clinton had replicated the black turnout levels enjoyed by Obama in 2012, she still would have lost the 2016 election, because the other shifts against her were so powerful,鈥� Ruy Teixeira, co-author of the report,聽writes for Vox.

Midterms as a test case

The results of the 2018 midterms are likely to have a big impact on which way Democrats will go in 2020 and beyond.

鈥淵ou have Stacey, you have Ben, you have Andrew Gillum [running for governor] in Florida ... all in the mold of Obama and what he was able to accomplish in terms of inspiring progressive, multiracial coalitions,鈥� Phillips says. 鈥淭hese races are a test of the progressive movement, in terms of its ability to broaden its conception of leadership and who people are looking for.鈥�

The candidates themselves know what鈥檚 at stake. 鈥淚t speaks well for Maryland and the diversity of the state,鈥� Baker says at a campaign stop in Randallstown on the last day of early voting.聽聽

In a phone interview, Jealous draws from history: 鈥淒oug Wilder showed us how to win these things: you build a bigger, more robust coalition than most people think is possible,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd today you have a rising generation of leadership who understand that the path to taking back the country is through our states.鈥�

The hope, however, is that in 2018, voters 鈥� especially Democratic voters 鈥� will care more about what candidates bring to the table than the color of their skin.

鈥淭he fact that they鈥檙e both minority is icing on the cake,鈥� says Rosero, the Jealous supporter, who himself is running for state office. For most voters, he says, the main question is: 鈥� 鈥楾his is what鈥檚 going on in my life: What are you going to do about it?鈥� Race, gender, all that is secondary.鈥�