海角大神

As California gears up for four years under a Republican White House and Congress, Gov. Jerry Brown is emerging as uniquely suited to playing a key role for blue states inclined toward political rebellion.

Since the tea party wave of 2010, the picture has been reversed: Red states barraging the Obama administration with lawsuit after lawsuit. The question now is whether blue states will respond in kind.

Governor Brown, who has a history of political independence and no elections left to campaign for, may be the Democrat most likely to chart a path that not only defends liberal values but also finds some practical middle ground with Washington, when possible.

The four-term governor of the country鈥檚 biggest state brings a mixture of experience, personal prudence, and pragmatism.聽And at a time when California is holding itself up as a big blue target for the new administration鈥檚 deeply conservative agenda, experts say, Brown may provide what the state 鈥� and the Democratic Party 鈥� needs to see.

鈥淜nowing how to navigate this is going to take a lot of political sophistication 鈥� picking and choosing when to fight and when to not fight,鈥� says Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles.聽鈥淭hat鈥檚 what a lot of the top leaders are wrestling with.鈥�

Blue-state battle cry

Take his State of the State address this week, which encompassed both sides of the governor: the Democratic leader sounding the blue-state battle cry, and the pragmatic politician acknowledging the limits of his power.

Brown made it clear that on issues closest to liberal hearts 鈥� health care, immigration, and climate change 鈥� he would stand firm with his Democratic Legislature and constituency against Washington鈥檚 conservative agenda.

鈥淐alifornia鈥檚 never turning back,鈥� he said, eliciting a standing ovation. 鈥淣ot now, not ever.鈥�

鈥淭hat is as hard, as tough, as I have ever heard him,鈥� says Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a professor of public policy at the University of Southern California. 鈥淗e drew that line in the sand with that speech.鈥�

Yet even as he urged the defense of California鈥檚 immigrant communities, Brown recognized the supremacy of federal law over state. As he called for the defense of liberal values, he reminded lawmakers from both parties of their shared victories. And he gave an approving ad lib 鈥� 鈥淎men to that, brother!鈥� 鈥� to the president鈥檚 commitment to invest in public works.

The tone of his State of the State, observers say, reinforced his stature as a true-blue liberal and established his place at the helm of what is looking like a blue state rebellion. At the same time, Brown鈥檚 reputation for pragmatism 鈥� an attribute that helped him pull California from the brink of bankruptcy in 2010 鈥� gives him room to defy party orthodoxy in the name of getting things done.

鈥淗e鈥檚 positioned himself as the unchallenged leader of the state鈥檚 Democratic majority, but also the unpredictable person who doesn鈥檛 always follow the party line and reaches across the aisle to Republicans,鈥� Professor Sonenshein says. 鈥淗is role seems both to fight the new administration, and to be aware of the dynamics swirling around California and Washington.鈥�

California as Ground Zero

Clearly, California will play a crucial role during the next four years.

鈥淐alifornia is going to be ground zero,鈥� Sonenshein says. 鈥淎s we focus on how [the president鈥檚] decisions will be implemented, a lot of eyes are going to turn here to see whether or not [they] can be slowed down, modified, or successfully resisted.鈥�

That puts Brown in a central role.

鈥淓verything that he will have learned in politics will be put into play by this,鈥� Jeffe says.

Brown began those lessons in the 1970s as a young governor who drove a Plymouth instead of a limousine and lived in an almost austere apartment, rather than a governor鈥檚 mansion.

Pragmatism came later, after several failed campaigns for the presidency.

When he returned to politics in 1998, running for mayor of Oakland, it was for a term that was to be transformative, as much 鈥� if not more 鈥� for him as for the city.

In the process of reviving Oakland鈥檚 downtown, The New York Times reported, Brown 鈥渃ut generous deals with developers, streamlined the approval process and pushed aside city officials who stood in the way.鈥澛燞is efforts, the Times noted, were 鈥渁n exercise in hard-nosed big-city politics.鈥�

When Brown returned to the governorship for a third term in 2010, California, reeling from the Great Recession, was $27 billion in debt. He unapologetically raised taxes and cut spending, angering lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. 鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to be able to say, 鈥楴o,鈥� 鈥� Brown told CBS News in 2015. 鈥淸T]his government is not something you just milk forever.鈥�

In November, the nonpartisan Legislative Analysts鈥� Office projected a $2.8 billion budget surplus for 2017 鈥撀燼 figure that would allow California to 鈥渨eather a mild recession鈥� without major tax increases or budget cuts for four years.

Paddling to the left

Brown鈥檚 State of the State speech, Jeffe says, placed the governor firmly to the left of his own聽鈥渃anoe theory of politics鈥�: 鈥淵ou paddle a little on the left and little on the right and you paddle a straight course.鈥�

鈥淚f the Legislature wants to fight Trump I think Brown will support it,鈥� says Thad Kousser, chair of the political science department at the University of California, San Diego.

There鈥檚 reason, however, to think that Brown will want to keep lanes to the White House open. Part of it has to do with his legacy 鈥� both as governor himself and as son of California鈥檚 most famous governor, Edmund 鈥淧at鈥� Brown, who is seen as the architect of modern-day California.

鈥淗e has this Brown DNA coursing through him, to build something big and grand,鈥� says Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford University鈥檚 Hoover Institution. 鈥淓dmund Brown, Sr., built highways, universities, water systems. For Jerry, it鈥檚 water tunnels, a high-speed rail.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 what money from Washington will help with,鈥� he says.

As such, Brown stands apart from younger officials in Sacramento like Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, newly appointed attorney general Xavier Becerra, and Senate president pro-tempore Kevin de Le贸n.

鈥淥ther major players have their eyes on the political scorecard, and on making the political gains from fighting the Trump administration even if they lose,鈥� Professor Kousser says. 鈥淛erry Brown is more focused on winning.鈥�

Keeping the federal government from abusing his state is also part of his job, adds Robert Smith, a professor of political science at San Francisco State University. That, along with the prudence that has characterized his career, could serve California well in what many project to be four long, litigious years.聽

鈥淭hat was a good reminder to the Legislature that you don鈥檛 want to go back to the days where the governor is standing at the schoolhouse door to defy federal authority,鈥� Professor Smith says, referring to Alabama Gov. George Wallace, who bodily resisted federal efforts to desegregate the state university.

鈥淚n this role [Brown] has played in California 鈥� being broadly progressive but not always predictable, and being willing to say no 鈥� maybe he鈥檚 been preparing for this, maybe without planning it,鈥� Sonenshein adds. 鈥淢aybe it鈥檒l work.鈥�