海角大神

Paul Ruiz just traveled 4,500 miles from his Hawaii home to resettle in tiny Vinings, Ga., one of the wealthiest corners of Cobb County.

Having been a Georgian for just one week, he鈥檚 only vaguely aware that Cobb County has long been the South鈥檚 version of California鈥檚 Orange County 鈥� a fount of conservative thinking and thinkers. It was the home base of conservative icons Rep. Bob Barr and House Speaker Newt Gingrich. It has been a Republican stronghold for decades.

But like many newcomers, Mr. Ruiz is an independent who votes 鈥渃haracter over party.鈥� And he and his wife, also an independent, will be voting for Hillary Clinton. It hasn鈥檛 been an easy decision, but, he says, 鈥渂eing Hispanic, what Trump has been saying, well, it鈥檚 just hurtful.鈥�

Welcome to the emerging Purple South.

This presidential election, something new and surprising has been burbling under the surface. Some polls show Texas being closer than Pennsylvania. Virginia has become a rock-solid Clinton state. North Carolina could follow. And thanks to voters like Ruiz, Georgia 鈥� remarkably 鈥� could be in play.

Broad national polls disguise the fact that Mrs. Clinton is making significant headway in the South. Donald Trump will still likely win most of the region, but the margins are much closer than they were in 2012, when Mitt Romney swept the South easily. Compared with 2012, the South 鈥渉as swung toward Democrats by a net of 6 points,鈥� writes Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight data journalism site.

In that way, Mr. Trump鈥檚 campaign has offered a glimpse of the future. As the South becomes more diverse and broadly prosperous, it is becoming less red. Those demographic trends were expected to play out in the years ahead. But this election, which has polarized the election along racial and ethnic lines, has brought them into sharper relief.

The Cobb suburbs 鈥渃learly should be a vote that鈥檚 persuadable鈥� for Democrats now, which is why Clinton is 鈥渦sing a strategy that is not a base strategy anymore,鈥� says Seth McKee, a political scientist at Texas Tech University in Lubbock. Clinton strategists are 鈥渓ooking at the trends, moving out, and going places that historically they have no business going to.鈥�

View from Cobb County

Once largely a white, suburban enclave, Cobb County is now an increasingly diverse corner of an expanding city. The percentage of the black population, much of it middle class, rose from 4.5 percent in 1980 to 25 percent in 2010. It鈥檚 a place where the Republican revolution was in part built, and it remains a wellspring of GOP donor cash. But Clinton is making inroads.

Neck in neck with Mr. Trump in Georgia, Clinton has begun to focus on conservative suburbs around Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Raleigh, N.C. A Clinton political-action committee just made a $2 million ad buy here in Georgia, which has not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1992.

In one ad, a narrator admits to having issues with Clinton, but ultimately says she has come around to the Democratic nominee. 鈥淚 approve this message,鈥� Clinton says at the end.

Clinton鈥檚 bold forays underscore polling that shows she is 鈥渃utting through鈥� in conservative suburbs, as pollster Ann Selzer told Bloomberg recently. In part, this is disgust with Trump鈥檚 comments about women and minorities. But just as important is his dour view of America today. A thriving Cobb County is very open to conservative arguments 鈥� but it embodies a sense of optimism.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of people in America, whatever their level of income, they worked hard to get there and they appreciate having it,鈥� says David Lublin, author of 鈥淭he Republican South: Democratization and partisan change.鈥� 鈥淵es, they think the country has problems, but they love it and they don鈥檛 have this 鈥榣et鈥檚 tear it down鈥� feeling about it. That鈥檚 why Trump鈥檚 upset-the-apple-cart approach is one that would make you nervous if you鈥檙e a college-educated Republican. They have their nice house in the suburbs and Hillary Clinton gives them less worry that that鈥檚 all going to disappear.鈥�

Land Rovers and anxious voters

In Vinings, a village with no lack of Land Rovers just across the Chattahoochee River from Atlanta, those words come alive. In interviews here, voters make clear that Trump is not a shoo-in. Die-hard Republican suburbanites are literally wringing their hands over what to do on Election Day.

Isaac Blochard, a Florida native, says he has always voted Republican. Including the March primary, he has voted for Jeb Bush three times.

鈥淚 still don鈥檛 know what to do,鈥� says Mr. Blochard, a father of three who just moved to Vinings from Destin, Fla. 鈥淚鈥檓 still mulling over all the pros and cons 鈥� and there are many.鈥�

But he hangs his head when reminded about Trump bragging on a hot mic about sexual assault. 鈥淚 have two young daughters,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t is unacceptable.鈥�

Questions about Clinton鈥檚 long and at times checkered political history are a big part of Trump鈥檚 appeal for many Americans, including here in Vinings. But for Blochard, the election may ultimately come down to details about education and foreign policy rather than defamation lawsuits and the weight gain of beauty contestants.

In his early 30s, Blochard is hoping that his health care startup takes off. He knows that, with the economy still uncertain for many, he is walking a fine line between paying rent in nearby Kennesaw, Ga., and a mortgage on his unsold house in Florida.

鈥淲e love it here, but I still can鈥檛 quite see the future,鈥� he says.

Still red, but changing

To be sure, Georgia is a long way from returning to a one-party state of Democrats. But Trump鈥檚 campaign is revealing the emerging political fault lines.

In the primaries, Trump did best in rural south Georgia, below the so-called 鈥済nat line,鈥� and worst in the Atlanta 鈥渄onut鈥� 鈥� the suburbs, including Cobb County corners like Cumberland District, which alone has 24 million square feet of office space.

鈥淐obb County from the Newt Gingrich era has been the stereotypical ultra-Republican county, but like inner suburbs all around the country it鈥檚 become much more diverse,鈥� says Mr. Lublin, also a public affairs professor at American University in Washington. 鈥淪o, we鈥檙e seeing a shift, but the question is whether it鈥檚 a sustainable shift [for Democrats] or do people revert to normal voting behavior if they get a more normal candidate?鈥�

Clinton鈥檚 gambit is an attempt to take advantage of that shift and perhaps cement it as a potential path toward expanding the party鈥檚 base. Under President Obama, Democrats have focused on building a coalition of minority voters, young voters, and women. The Georgia strategy is about reaching out to Americans who may be skeptical about taxes and how to deal with climate change, but who also demand stellar schools.

In other words, Cobb County is a place where sophistication and details matter. There are olive-oil shops and pour-over coffee joints. Dozens of aviation firms beckon those with education and expertise.

鈥淭his feels like a place full of potential,鈥� Ruiz says. 鈥淩ight now, I鈥檓 very happy to be here.鈥�

Seeking sophistication

The changing demographics of Georgia are largely reflected in Cobb County, says Keith Gaddie, a political scientist at the University of Oklahoma in Norman and co-author of 鈥淧olitics in America.鈥� He says the state is roughly 30 percent African-American, 30 percent white with college degrees, 30 percent whites without college degrees, and 10 percent everybody else. And right now, 鈥淐linton has some electoral advantage with three of the four slices of that pie,鈥� he says.

In that light, Cobb County shows how elections nationwide are playing out.

鈥淚n one dimension, that means it鈥檚 about urban spaces, suburban spaces, and rural spaces,鈥� says Professor Gaddie. 聽

鈥淭he second dimension is: Is an area growing or shrinking?鈥� he adds. 鈥淎ll up and down the Atlantic coast it鈥檚 growing and booming and becoming more diverse, urban, and sophisticated. Cobb County today is more urbane, for example, than Atlanta was 40 years ago鈥�. Frankly, these people [in Cobb County], I think they like their lives a little more sophisticated than a Vegas show.鈥�

At least for now, Monique Beedles represents an emerging Cobb County 鈥� black, independent, a newcomer, and working her way up in the world. The restaurant worker and Texas native, too, says she鈥檒l vote for Clinton, largely because it is the former secretary of State, not the New York real estate mogul, who more naturally reflects the current mood of Cobb County.

鈥淭he climate has changed, and I鈥檓 not talking about the weather.鈥澛�