海角大神

A new survey by the Pew Research Center finds a decline in the percentage of registered Latino voters who say they are 鈥渁bsolutely certain鈥� that they will cast a ballot on Nov. 8., with just 69 percent saying as much this year, compared to 77 percent in 2012.

Pew聽pollsters found an even sharper decline among Hispanic Millennials, from 74 percent to 62 percent in 2016.

The findings may surprise some observers, given Republican candidate Donald Trump鈥檚 harsh rhetoric on immigration and promises to carry out mass deportations of the undocumented 鈥� the sort of talk that has undoubtedly contributed to the candidate鈥檚 82 percent unfavorability among Hispanic voters, as of a July poll.

Several experts on Latino political participation suggested that the Pew survey鈥檚 findings may not capture the intentions of this year鈥檚 Latino electorate, pointing to an earlier series of polls, taken over four straight weeks this September and October, that turned up an average of 74.5 percent of registered Hispanic voters saying they were 鈥渁lmost certain鈥� that they would select a candidate this year.

鈥淢y hunch is you鈥檙e going to see a Latino vote for Clinton that鈥檚 going to equal or possibly be higher than the 2012 vote for Obama,鈥� says Albert Camarillo, a Stanford history professor known as a founder of Mexican-American and Chicano studies, in an interview with 海角大神. In 2012,聽71 percent of Hispanic voters went for Obama, according to another Pew poll.

鈥淚 would not be surprised if you see a 73 or 74 percent clip [in 2016 for Clinton], particularly now that she鈥檚 blanketing Latino markets with Spanish-language ads,鈥� he says.

Still, Hispanic voters鈥� collective reaction to the ascent of Donald Trump鈥檚 hardline nativism 鈥� and perhaps its prominence as a source of momentum for his campaign 鈥� seems to highlight the GOP鈥檚 troubles with appealing to Hispanics over a longer period.

In July, Story Hinckley of the Monitor reported that Hispanics expressed the least fear about this year鈥檚 election of any ethnic group in a Gallup survey:

Since the late 1990s, the percentage of Latinos who identify as or lean Republican has hovered around a quarter of respondents, ranging no higher than 28 percent. For the Democrats, that percentage declined during the Bush administration years (2001-2009), but rose during the Obama administration.

That doesn鈥檛 mean Democrats can assume Latino support in the future: like young voters across ethnic lines, Millennial Hispanics are less enthusiastic about Mrs. Clinton and the Democrats than older generations. Only 48 percent say they鈥檒l plan to vote for Clinton, and of them, 64 percent describe it in negative terms, as a vote against Mr. Trump.

鈥淲hat鈥檒l be a fascinating conversation in four years with the Democratic Party,鈥� says Dr. Camarillo, 鈥渋s if you get a really strong Latino candidate that brings out the ethnic vote. We haven鈥檛 seen that yet. Had Clinton taken one of the possible Latino running mates, I think we鈥檇 be having a different conversation.鈥�