Why Trump's foreign policy resonates with Americans 鈥 to a point
Important aspects of Trump's foreign policy play on America's weariness as global cop. It's his extreme prescriptions that worry voters.
Important aspects of Trump's foreign policy play on America's weariness as global cop. It's his extreme prescriptions that worry voters.
In recent weeks Donald Trump has offered one provocative foreign-policy pronouncement after another, reflecting his view that America can no longer afford to pay for the world鈥檚 security and prosperity.
The United States, he says, should leave a NATO alliance where wealthy Europeans are mooching off a 鈥減oor鈥 US for their national defense needs. Asian partners also need to prepare for an era of American retrenchment 鈥 to the extent that allies Japan and South Korea might want to acquire their own nuclear weapons, he suggests.
And then, of course, there鈥檚 the matter of his envisioned southern border wall 鈥 which he says Mexico must either pay for or face a cutoff of the billions of dollars that Mexicans working in the US send back home each year.
Such proposals may leave most of Washington鈥檚 foreign-policy elite gasping for breath, but they resonate with a significant slice of the American public for a couple of key reasons, national security and opinion experts say.
For one thing, many in the US have tired of America鈥檚 role of superpower and sympathize with the idea that playing the world鈥檚 policeman has gotten too expensive and offers diminishing returns. Then there鈥檚 the fact that much of Mr. Trump鈥檚 more extreme thinking on US relations with the world has been around in milder forms for years 鈥 and has even picked up steam under President Obama.
For instance, former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates caused a stir when he used his farewell tour of Europe in 2011 to castigate European allies for not paying their fair share of the alliance defense bill. And Mr. Obama, elected as a kind of antidote to the interventionist George W. Bush, has as president espoused a more domestically focused America. He recently lamented to The Atlantic magazine's Jeffrey Goldberg about the 鈥渇ree riders鈥 who can afford to pay more than they do now but rely on the US for their security.
From there, it鈥檚 not much of a leap to nod and cheer at Trump鈥檚 take on an overburdened America, experts say.
鈥淭rump is effectively speaking to a widespread feeling in the American public of frustration with aspects of being the global hegemon, the big man on the world stage,鈥 says Steven Kull, director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland鈥檚 Center for International and Security Studies. 鈥淗e speaks to a deep-seated feeling, and he gets a response.鈥
'Getting ripped off'
Americans have a 鈥済ut reaction鈥 when they hear Trump say, as he told The New York Times, that for too long the US has been the world鈥檚 鈥渂ig stupid bully鈥 being 鈥渟ystematically ripped off by everybody,鈥 says Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow specializing in defense spending at the Center for American Progress in Washington.
鈥淧eople off the top of their head say, 鈥榊eah, that鈥檚 right!鈥 when they hear someone saying we鈥檙e too much of the world鈥檚 policeman or that others aren鈥檛 paying their fair share,鈥 Mr. Korb says.
One reason Americans can relate to Trump鈥檚 worldview is that they have already been exposed to the broader thinking that lies beneath his more extreme specifics 鈥 through Obama, Korb adds.
鈥淚n a lot of what Trump says, there鈥檚 a ring that鈥檚 familiar to people,鈥 he says, and聽part of that 鈥渇amiliarity鈥 comes from the Obama presidency.
鈥淥bama has delivered a kind of retrenchment that was a reaction to Bush, who was viewed as overly interventionist,鈥 he says. 鈥淪o when Trump talks about America paying for the world when it needs to pull back and fix things up at home, people think they鈥檝e heard it before and it has a grain of truth for them.鈥
Korb notes that all of Obama鈥檚 past Defense secretaries have upbraided European allies for not paying their fair share into NATO.
鈥淚f you go back and take a look at what [Robert] Gates and [Leon] Panetta and [Chuck] Hagel said, they all carried the message that 鈥榊ou guys have to do more,鈥 鈥 he says. 鈥淧eople may be fuzzy on the specifics,鈥 he adds, 鈥渂ut they remember the general idea that our allies in Europe and Asia aren鈥檛 stepping up to the plate the way even the president thinks they should.鈥
As long as Trump is talking in terms of greater burden-sharing among allies, the public is broadly with him. Most Americans feel the US is less respected on the world stage but at the same time favor a greater degree of shared leadership in global affairs, recent surveys from the Pew Research Center in Washington suggest.
And according to a Pew survey taken a year ago, only about half of Americans have a favorable view of NATO 鈥 with the alliance鈥檚 detractors higher among Republicans.
Too extreme?
But Americans appear to part ways with the Trump foreign policy vision when general feelings confront specifics.聽
Any misgivings over NATO do no translate into support for abandoning the alliance, says Dr. Kull of the University of Maryland, citing his own research. Similarly,聽views that Asian allies should take on more of their own defense do not translate to support for Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons.
鈥淵es, there is pretty strong thinking that our allies for too long have been relying on our generosity, but does that mean the public thinks we should pull out of NATO? No,鈥 Kull says, 鈥渁bout two-thirds don鈥檛 think so.鈥
That number was among the findings of a study his group recently did for the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
While Americans may approve when Trump the businessman talks about the US needing a 鈥渂etter deal鈥 with the world, that does not mean they are looking for a revolution in world affairs, Kull adds.
鈥淭here was support for NATO [in the Chicago Council survey] and there is support for the basic international order鈥 of security alliances and trade relations, he says 鈥 鈥渁nd that鈥檚 where Trump departs from the general public.鈥
Of course, for dealmaker-in-chief Trump, threats to abandon NATO or Asian allies could simply be starting-points for negotiation. But Kull points to surveys showing Trump鈥檚 unusually high negatives for a presidential candidate, and he suggests that misgivings about how a President Trump would conduct relations with the world are part of that.
鈥淧eople may be unhappy about things, but they aren鈥檛 looking for a president to turn global affairs upside down or put the world order at risk,鈥 he says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e not ready to say that鈥檚 how presidents act, or that that鈥檚 how America acts in the world.鈥澛