海角大神

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The Economist says Trump presidency would threaten global economy

The analysts weigh in on how a Trump administration could affect global markets and foreign policy.

By Lisa Suhay, Correspondent

A leading global forecasting service has just ranked a Donald Trump presidency at No. 6 on a list of major threats to the global economy, somewhere between the utter collapse of the Chinese market and a new cold war between Russia and the West.

That said, these same experts do not expect Mr. Trump to win the nation's highest office.

But if he did win, economists say that Trump鈥檚 lack of detailed policies, constant self-revision, unlikeliness to listen to advisors and being 鈥渆xceptionally hostile towards free trade鈥 add up to a high risk to both global economy and stability should he become president.聽聽

鈥淎lthough we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn,鈥 is the opinion rendered in a聽Global Risk Assessment聽published online by聽The Economist鈥檚 Intelligence Unit. 鈥淚t is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress 鈥 albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.鈥

Robert Powell, risk manager for聽The Economist鈥檚 Intelligence Unit and one of the assessment authors says of Trump in a telephone interview, 鈥淗e鈥檚 very anti-NAFTA," he said referring to the聽North American Free Trade Agreement.

鈥淭he peculiar thing is, he鈥檚 a businessman, so you鈥檇 have thought he鈥檇 be acutely aware for the benefits of free trade, given that he imports many of his own goods from China,鈥 Mr. Powell adds. 鈥淚f he did a U-turn, a 180, and decided that in fact free trade and the movement of goods was in fact good for business and should be encouraged, then that would be not only good for the world economy and good for the United States, but it would probably be good for Trump Incorporated.鈥

However, Powell says, 鈥淭he problem is that he鈥檚 obviously gone in a very different direction. I can鈥檛 speculate as to his motivations, but it does smack of populism, when in fact businessmen have a very, very different, in fact entirely opposing point of view.鈥

In addition, Powell points out that Trump has 鈥渢aken what we would consider completely the wrong line on immigration, as well as free trade.鈥

The Economist is generally supportive of immigration, particularly of skilled workers while, Powell says, 鈥淢r. Trump seems to be strongly opposed to immigration from around the world,聽and he has used strident language聽against Muslims."

Economist聽Barry Bosworth, senior fellow at the聽Brookings Institution聽writes in an email response for interview, 鈥淚 am not a Trump supporter, but believe the risk of his election is still very low. If he wins, I would be more concerned about what his victory implies about the thinking of Americans than Trump per se鈥 His election would be a cataclysmic global event with enormous implications for other countries.鈥

鈥淚t would be extremely bad for the global economy. It implies enormous US hostility to global trade and our policies toward minorities,鈥 Dr. Bosworth adds. 鈥淚 do not understand the Economist editors labeling Democratic opposition as virulent.鈥

Bosworth adds, 鈥淚f he won, it would undoubtedly be a thoroughly Republican congress, so I don鈥檛 understand their assumption that Democrats would have any power to block his policies.鈥

鈥淭he Republicans will probably hold both houses, and the point being that you won鈥檛 have the normal opposition you have with other parties you have the opposition from his own party which is going to make it extraordinarily difficult for him to get anything done,鈥 Powell responds. 鈥淭he political dysfunction we鈥檝e had during the Obama presidency will fairly pale in comparison to the chaos we鈥檙e going to have during a Trump presidency.鈥

Asked if there is anything Trump could do to repair his image and change this forecast, Powell says Trump 鈥渨ould have to do a complete 180 on his policies鈥 on NAFTA, immigration, the wall along the Mexican border and his rhetoric concerning Syria and foreign oil confiscation.

鈥淲hich he might, given the way he tends to change his mind,鈥 Powell says.

Those hoping for an imminent announcement of a comprehensive Trump policy to emerge any time soon may be disappointed.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think he is interested in articulating a set of policies at the moment,鈥 Bosworth says. 鈥淗e is presenting a perspective that resonates with a surprising number of white, less-educated Americans who feel threatened by global and domestic trends. His main themes have been quite consistent. I think that he likes being perceived as high risk abroad, and see little reason to reduce those factors at present.鈥

But the greater concern may be that no matter who Trump names as his advisors, he might not take heed.

鈥淥ne of the issues with Mr. Trump is that he has a hyper-extended ego and it鈥檚 difficult to see who he would actually listen to if he had an advisor,鈥 Powell says. 鈥淗e obviously has the thinnest of thin grasps on global politics and global economics and he鈥檚 also prone to make decisions on the fly.鈥

"So you can鈥檛 really have a president say he鈥檚 building a wall and then change his mind a week later. You can鈥檛 have a president saying you should have a trade war with China and changing his mind a week later. You certainly can鈥檛 have a president invading Syria and changing his mind a week later. So it is a huge concern that he wouldn鈥檛 be taking advice from others in particular聽聽because he has this record of constantly shifting.鈥

Powell concludes, 鈥淣one of this bodes particularly positively for the United States and the state of the global economy.鈥

The Trump campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.