海角大神

Rep. Eliot Engel has seen the Iran ads on television: The somber聽鈥済ood deal or bad deal?鈥澛燼d that urges Congress to reject the Iran nuclear agreement; and the promising 鈥済ood deal鈥澛燼d, that defends the agreement as a plus for American and Israeli security.聽

The surprise is not that there are contrasting viewpoints on such a controversial deal, but that the ads are backed by competing Jewish lobbies.

For decades, the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, has been king of the Hill in Washington. Well-funded, it is considered the most powerful pro-Israel lobbying force on United States-Israel security issues. It strongly opposes the deal in favor of trying for a better one. Congressman Engel (D) of New York, who is Jewish, is a longtime friend of AIPAC.

But now, there is also an opposing view. J Street 鈥� named for a missing street in Washington 鈥� is elbowing its way into the conversation. Founded in 2008 to support a聽two-state solution to the Palestinian problem, the liberal underdog has launched an intense effort to convince undecided Democrats to support a deal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls a 鈥渕istake of historic proportions.鈥澛�

The lobbying effort from both camps is shaping up to be the first big test of their competing Jewish-American worldviews on Capitol Hill. Republicans are firmly in line with AIPAC. But the scramble is on for Democrats, especially in the House, where they are seen as the firewall against GOP opposition. Many, such as Engel, have yet to say how they will vote.

More broadly, the lobbying points to聽splits聽within the American Jewish community itself.

J Street, which also describes itself as pro-Israel, argues that it represents the majority view of the Jewish community, which a聽Pew 2013 survey聽describes as among聽鈥渢he most strongly liberal, Democratic groups in US politics.鈥� Two-thirds identify as Democrats or Democrat-leaning, and a聽survey released by J Street this week shows聽60 percent聽of American Jews support the Iran deal.

A recent national poll of Jews by the聽LA Jewish Journal finds a plurality supporting the agreement. But it also reveals deep skepticism,聽with a majority of respondents saying the agreement makes Israel 鈥渕ore endangered.鈥澛燦either are they confident that Iran will be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon in 10 years, as the agreement lays out.

AIPAC is riding that skepticism wave, and as the clear winner in the money race, it is reportedly spending $20 million to $40 million with other pro-Israel groups just on the ad campaign. J Street has raised a total of just $2.5 million so far.

The fledgling lobby gives cover to lawmakers who don鈥檛 agree with 鈥渢he far more powerful鈥� AIPAC, says John Pitney, a congressional expert at Claremont McKenna College in California. It enables members 鈥渢o point to a Jewish organization 鈥� and say there isn鈥檛 a single Jewish point of view.鈥�

For Engel鈥檚 part, he says, 鈥淚鈥檝e had a much more close relationship over the years with AIPAC than I鈥檝e had with any other pro-Israel group, but they鈥檙e all welcome to talk to me.鈥澛犅�

The top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee told reporters Tuesday that he鈥檚 still studying the agreement, though most calls from his district are going against it and he personally finds it 鈥渢roublesome鈥� in several areas.

By contrast, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) of Illinois 鈥� who is endorsed by J Street 鈥� is leading an unofficial effort to count votes to make sure the Iran agreement survives. If the House and Senate pass a resolution disapproving of the deal, President Obama will veto it, meaning she聽and other supporters need to round聽up just over one-third of House members to prevent an override. (An override requires a two-thirds majority in both houses.)

鈥淚鈥檓 hopeful that most of the Jewish members will at the very least sustain a veto of the president,鈥� she told the Monitor. The House has 18 Jewish Democrats, including the congresswoman. Earlier this month, most of them made it to the White House for an exclusive briefing聽for Jewish lawmakers聽on the deal by senior official Ben Rhodes.

In an interview, J Street鈥檚 chief lobbyist, Dylan Williams, says the trend is moving toward enough Democrat support to preserve the deal. But 鈥渁s in any Hill fight, you don鈥檛 want to count your votes before they鈥檙e cast.鈥� He describes J Street鈥檚 lobbying effort on the Iran agreement as its most intense effort by far 鈥� 鈥渁 major test鈥� for the young organization.聽

Mr. Williams characterizes AIPAC as part of the 鈥渙ld鈥� elite, packed with neoconservatives who are out of step with American Jewish opinion but in lockstep with the conservative government of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

鈥淭his disconnect between where pro-Israel American Jews actually are, and where these self-selected leaders of Jewish community groups say they are, is a major issue in this debate,鈥� says Williams.

American Jews seem to back the Iran deal more than Americans generally, who either reject it (CNN/ORC) or support it (Washington Post/ABC), depending on how the poll is worded.聽

J Street's efforts聽on the Iran deal聽include ad campaigns, visits to the Hill, and plans to mobilize its grass roots to speak at town hall meetings, Jewish community centers, and synagogues when key lawmakers return to their districts during the August recess.

This week, J Street is also bringing two high-level Israeli security experts to the Hill 鈥� Alon Pinkas, the former consul general for Israel in New York, and Gen. Amram Mitzna, the former leader of the Labor Party and former Israeli general in charge of the West Bank. Other Israeli 鈥渟ecurity validators鈥� will be coming over soon.

Americans might not know it, but the 鈥淚sraeli security establishment鈥� supports the deal, says Williams 鈥� a point that Secretary of State John Kerry made at a Senate hearing last week.

But AIPAC has its own impressive list of聽notable quotables,聽ranging from the right to the left. 鈥淎ll Israeli officials who are currently responsible for Israel鈥檚 security oppose the agreement,鈥� says an AIPAC source who didn't want to be named.

It will have its own supporters out in force at town halls and in meetings with senators and representatives in their districts. And in August, more than 40 lawmakers from both parties will travel to Israel to meet with Netanyahu ahead of the September vote on the deal,聽The Hill reports. It is a biennial trip organized and funded by AIPAC.

According to the AIPAC source, 鈥渨e are engaged in a major bipartisan educational and lobbying effort against the deal and for a better deal.鈥�

J Street has the might of the majority on its side, says Williams.

But where Congressman Engel 鈥� and other Democrats 鈥� eventually stand is what matters most to Mr. Obama.