海角大神

It鈥檚 a crowded field out there for the Republican presidential primary. Whether firebrand Ted Cruz, the first out of the gate with his official announcement Monday, can break from the pack is now the question.

If you鈥檙e talking about fellow anti-establishment, 海角大神 right-wing conservatives, Senator Cruz has strong potential to get ahead. But if you include candidates with broader appeal, history indicates he won鈥檛 be the GOP nominee.

But even as Cruz trails in polls, he could still have influence on the race. In that regard, the Texas tea party senator will be 鈥渁 considerable factor,鈥� says Stuart Rothenberg, founding听editor of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.

鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 dismiss him, brush him off, or underestimate him,鈥� Mr. Rothenberg says.

Cruz has substantial appeal with right-wing 海角大神s who are angry and frustrated with the establishment GOP鈥檚 tendency to compromise, Rothenberg says. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e not talking about 5 percent of the party; you鈥檙e probably talking about 40 percent.鈥�

A recent Pew report finds that consistently conservative Republicans have gained in strength since 2004.

Cruz graduated from the elite schools of Princeton University and Harvard Law School, but he has proved his anti-establishment bona fides. In 2013, his first year as a US senator, he led the way to a partial government shutdown over the Affordable Care Act.

At the end of last year, he wanted to use the entire federal budget 鈥� and not just the Department of Homeland Security 鈥� as leverage against what he calls the president鈥檚 鈥渆xecutive amnesty鈥� on immigration. And he鈥檚 likened the Obama administration鈥檚 nuclear negotiations with Iran to the Munich appeasement of Hitler in 1938.

According to Rothenberg, similar candidates to watch are Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Governor Jindal, who can be long-winded, ranks even lower than Cruz in the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the first-in-the-nation battleground of Iowa 鈥� 2 percent compared with Cruz鈥檚 4.3 percent.

Mr. Huckabee would be a more formidable competitor, having won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and receiving the second highest GOP delegate count that year. A former minister, he鈥檚 polling at 12 percent in the RCP average in Iowa, where evangelical conservatives play a major role.

Widen the circle to include Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who is expected to announce his candidacy April 7, and things get tougher. Both lawmakers are tea party darlings, but Senator Paul adds a libertarian streak and his own charisma.

鈥淭he two would be battling for many of the same votes,鈥� says Amy Black, a professor of political science at Wheaton College in Wheaton, Ill., in an e-mail.

Finally, throw in candidates with broader appeal 鈥� Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 鈥� and things get even tougher. Not since Barry Goldwater in 1964 has a stridently conservative Republican won the party鈥檚 presidential nomination 鈥� and he went down to a crashing defeat against Lyndon B. Johnson.

The lesson here is that candidates with the broadest appeal actually win, although Cruz argues that Republicans like Mitt Romney and John McCain lost because they were too mainstream, not conservative enough.

鈥淗istory tells us that somebody that the party leadership likes will get the nomination,鈥� says Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia鈥檚 Center for Politics in Charlottesville. 鈥淐ertainly the party leadership will not want Ted Cruz to get the nomination.鈥�

Indeed, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R) of Kentucky promised 鈥渘o more shutdowns鈥� when Republicans took control of the Senate this year. Besides, he鈥檚 backing Senator Rand Paul, his fellow Kentuckian.

But Cruz鈥檚 presence will certainly be felt. He is a forceful orator and will probably influence the debates 鈥� and general debate. He may attract three or four mega-wealthy individuals who want to put millions into his campaign, forcing others to spend more. Or he may successfully build a grass-roots army of small donors.

What party officials want is to get to a nominee as quickly as possible, to avoid intraparty fighting. Cruz or other formidable candidates could delay that.

On the other hand, Professor Black suggests that the Texan's stark, take-no-prisoners ideological stance actually 鈥渕akes it easier for a more moderate candidate (or candidates) to enter the race.鈥� Such a stance offers moderates 鈥渕ore political space to reach out to centrist and center-right Republicans.鈥�