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Mississippi鈥檚 high-spirited, at times nasty Republican Senate primary runoff has reached decision day 鈥� a vote whose result will reverberate far beyond the borders of the Magnolia State.

If insurgent state Sen. Chris McDaniel beats six-term US Sen. Thad Cochran on Tuesday, the tea party movement will have defeated a sitting US senator three straight election cycles. That, coming after the shocking recent defeat of House majority leader Eric Cantor of Virginia in his primary, would lay to rest the notion that anti-establishment fervor among voters has dissipated. 聽

State Senator McDaniel has the momentum. He came in first in the June 3 primary, slightly ahead of Senator Cochran, but did not win a majority, triggering a runoff. History is on McDaniel鈥檚 side: An incumbent who fails to win outright in the first round usually loses in the runoff.

If Cochran manages to win, it will be despite a lackluster start, near nonexistent fundraising before this year, and a fragile public presence. He is an institution in Mississippi politics, and will owe victory to the state GOP establishment, which has carried him on its back 鈥� including a late, controversial bid during the runoff to reach out to Democrats, including the state鈥檚 large black population. Cochran insiders have their fingers crossed.

鈥淚f we do pull this off, it鈥檚 one for the record books 鈥� and a model for how to grow the party,鈥� says Henry Barbour, the state's Republican national committeeman and co-founder of a super political action committee supporting Cochran.聽

Polls suggest McDaniel has a comfortable lead among regular GOP primary voters, but Team Cochran鈥檚 full-on effort to woo non-Republicans could bear fruit. In his 42 years in Washington, first in the House, then the Senate, Cochran has been a champion of delivering federal funds to his home state.

To Mississippi Democrats anxious about the possibility of McDaniel heading to Washington, intent on slashing federal spending, voting for Cochran on Tuesday may make sense. The rub is that people who voted in the Democratic primary on June 3 are not eligible to vote in the GOP runoff. Conservative activists plan to serve as poll-watchers, to ensure that those voting are eligible.

Cochran adviser Stuart Stevens says the campaign鈥檚 polling shows a tight race. And there鈥檚 evidence that turnout may actually rise in the runoff, bucking the norm. Requests for absentee ballots during the three-week runoff period have surpassed those from before the primary.

On the ground, the contrast between the two campaigns could not be more stark. At a McDaniel rally on Sunday, held in the parking lot of a Hobby Lobby store in Biloxi, supporters wore jeans and T-shirts, waved homemade signs, and spoke passionately about their candidate. The 40-something McDaniel wore jeans and scruffy shoes, his shirt untucked.

"Cochran, known as the King of Pork for bringing聽federal money to Mississippi, doesn't bring money to the citizens of Mississippi or they wouldn't have been consistently ranked the poorest state for his entire 42-year tenure," says Carol Hill, a retired physician from Diamondhead, Miss. "He brings federal money home to his crony friends."

Others said that McDaniel鈥檚 goal of cutting Washington spending could mean less money for Mississippians, but they鈥檙e OK with that. In fact, they said, it would force Mississippians to be more self-reliant.

If McDaniel wins, 鈥渋t will probably mean sacrifice,鈥� says Randy Lund, who works for a local cable TV company. 鈥淧eople in the US don鈥檛 know how to sacrifice.鈥�

Later in the day, a crowd of Cochran supporters 鈥� roughly equal in number to those who turned up for McDaniel 鈥� gathered in the lobby of the nearby Gulfport-Biloxi airport to see the senator. The group was more buttoned-down, like the senator, who spoke only a few minutes, and let local politicians do most of the talking, including Rep. Steven Palazzo (R) of Mississippi, who in effect delivered a stump speech for him.

In interviews, local mayors past and present attending the rally spoke of Cochran鈥檚 role in securing disaster relief in 2005 when hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast.

If Cochran loses, 鈥渋t鈥檚 a big unknown,鈥� said Billy Skellie, mayor of Long Beach, Miss. 鈥淢cDaniel doesn鈥檛 want to fund education or anything. How ludicrous can this be?鈥�

Jill Lipski, a teacher from Wool Market, Miss., called herself a longtime supporter of Cochran. 鈥淗e supports education,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e need more common sense.鈥�

Another difference between the two rallies: At the McDaniel event, sponsored by Tea Party Express, speaker after speaker exhorted the crowd to bring friends, family, neighbors, anybody, to the polls and 鈥渕ake history.鈥� The 鈥渁sk鈥� at Cochran events was much less adamant.

That was especially so on Monday, when the state GOP establishment 鈥� plus Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona 鈥� gathered for a Cochran rally at the Mississippi War Memorial Building in Jackson, the state capital. Elderly veterans sat on stage, which emphasized the 70-something Cochran鈥檚 age. One by one, state officials, and Senator McCain, took the podium to honor Cochran for his service. It could have been a retirement event.

In McDaniel鈥檚 world, that鈥檚 the idea. Thank Cochran, and send him into retirement. If McDaniel wins, it will be an improbable victory in some ways. The recent arrest of McDaniel supporters over photos taken at Cochran鈥檚 bedridden wife鈥檚 nursing home stopped his momentum for a while, but not forever. An old recording of provocative comments about slaves, women, and Mexicans from McDaniel鈥檚 former radio show also didn鈥檛 change the game.

When Congressman Cantor lost on June 10, that sent shock waves across the Republican landscape 鈥� including the Mississippi race.

鈥淓veryone was energized,鈥� says Noel Fritsch, McDaniel鈥檚 spokesman.

Mississippi establishment Republicans look at the young, charismatic state senator, and shake their heads.

鈥淵ou have to give it to McDaniel 鈥� he鈥檚 a bit of a Houdini,鈥� says a Cochran insider. 鈥淗is following is almost like a cult. It鈥檚 like nothing I鈥檝e ever seen.鈥�

National Democrats are also watching Mississippi closely. Though the state is deep red, and likely to elect the winner of Tuesday鈥檚 runoff in November, they still hope McDaniel wins the runoff, then blows up during the general election, as conservative insurgents have done the past two cycles.

The Democratic nominee, former Rep. Travis Childers, is seen as a credible candidate. The national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is prepared to funnel money into the race if McDaniel wins. 聽