海角大神

Four years ago, on the eve of his first inauguration, President-elect Barack Obama faced enormous challenges and sky-high expectations.

The economy was on the verge of collapse, and the nation was embroiled in two wars. But Americans were infused with optimism that the young senator from Illinois, about to make history as the nation鈥檚 first black president, would deliver on his promise of transformational, post-partisan leadership.

Mr. Obama took office with a Gallup job approval rating in the stratosphere, near 70 percent. Now he embarks on his second term with the public stature of a mere mortal 鈥� job approvals averaging in the low 50s, up from first-term lows that had dipped below 40 percent 鈥� and even starker polarization.

鈥淗ope and change鈥� have given way to cold-eyed realism. Obama鈥檚 big Democratic majorities in Congress 鈥� the one-party rule that allowed him to pass the biggest stimulus bill in history, auto and financial industry bailouts, and sweeping health-care reform 鈥� are long gone, in part precisely because of all those big measures.

But as circumstances have changed, so too has Obama. Having entered office without much executive experience, he has learned by doing. Initially, his impulse was to throw out broad concepts and let his Democratic allies in Congress fill in the legislative details. After the midterm shellacking, and the tea-party fueled Republican takeover of the House, the next two years were marked by gridlock and brinkmanship 鈥� and an ugly reelection campaign.

Now Obama is playing a different game.

鈥淗e鈥檚 had a steep learning curve, but I think he鈥檚 learned a bit about how to negotiate,鈥� says James Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. 鈥淗e鈥檚 tougher now.鈥�

Instead of trying to make nice with congressional Republicans, his team has made clear, Obama will work the opposition from the outside, traveling out into the country more and playing to public opinion. His tech-savvy campaign operation, Obama for America, has morphed into Organizing for Action, an effort to turn his millions of supporters into a digital army that 鈥渨ill work to turn our shared values into legislative action,鈥� as Obama wrote in an e-mail to supporters. 聽

After the frustrations of trying to negotiate with House Speaker John Boehner (R), Obama now seems set to use the bully pulpit to exploit congressional Republicans鈥� extraordinarily low public approval. Already, the House Republicans鈥� decision Friday not to extract concessions in exchange for raising the debt ceiling for three months represents a bow to public opinion.

But there are two more 鈥渇iscal cliffs鈥� to come on which Obama is in a weaker position 鈥� the late-February deadline for deep spending cuts known as the 鈥渟equester鈥� and the end of federal spending authority on March 27. Obama also faces longstanding pressure to put entitlement cuts on the table.

The Republican game may be to tie Obama down, as the Lilliputians did to Gulliver, with all the fiscal cliffs. But Obama is still dreaming big. Many agenda items remain from the first term, including immigration reform, climate change, and energy.

鈥淲e want our children to live in an America that isn鈥檛 burdened by debt, that isn鈥檛 weakened by inequality, that isn鈥檛 threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet,鈥� he said after his Nov. 6 election victory.

Then there鈥檚 gun control, which Obama barely mentioned in his first term but has become an emotional priority following last month鈥檚 school massacre in Newtown, Conn. On that front, some of the legislative elements 鈥� especially a renewed ban on assault weapons 鈥� will be difficult to get through the GOP-run House. He also took executive action on gun violence, a work-around that he has turned to increasingly on a variety of issues since the Republicans retook the House two years ago.

Still, working on the edges doesn鈥檛 fit Obama鈥檚 鈥済o big or go home鈥� philosophy of governing. And on the biggest issue of all 鈥� the sluggish economic recovery, marked by unemployment still near 8 percent and stagnant wages 鈥� Obama still harbors hopes of additional spending in education, research and development, and infrastructure. The core promise of his reelection campaign was to revitalize the middle class, no small goal.

鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 want to leave here in four years having put through a few executive orders on guns and maybe an immigration bill,鈥� says Democratic strategist Peter Fenn. 鈥淗e wants folks to say, 鈥楯eez, this was big, this was a big presidency.' 鈥�

Obama is aware of the potential pitfalls ahead. 鈥淚鈥檓 more than familiar with all the literature about presidential overreach in second terms,鈥� he said in his first post-reelection press conference.

Political capital earned from reelection, and from the accompanying boost in job approval, could be fleeting. Obama is, by definition, now a lame duck. By the middle of next year, the political world will be embroiled in the next midterm campaign, and once again legislating will take a back seat. So realistically, he has only 18 months in which to add more domestic accomplishments to his legacy.

Typically, second-term presidents turn to foreign policy, where they have freer rein. To be sure, Obama has many challenges ahead: Iran鈥檚 nuclear ambitions, declining relations with Russia, the rise of China, instability in the Arab world.

But it鈥檚 possible that Obama will buck the 鈥渟econd term globetrotter鈥� convention, as he gives domestic priorities top billing 鈥� backed up by a war-weary nation. Of course, it鈥檚 impossible to predict events, but his choice of Defense secretary, former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska, suggests a focus on the home front. Mr. Hagel is known for his past opposition to the Iraq War and to future foreign military entanglements.

In the end, just by winning reelection he has guaranteed that the signature achievement of his first term 鈥� Obamacare 鈥� will not be repealed. His administration is now focused on implementation. But whether health-care reform ends up being his biggest legacy remains to be seen.

鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 rule it out,鈥� says Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist at the University of Texas, Austin. 鈥淭he ultimate answer requires it to be rooted and prized, like Medicare and Social Security. Half the country doesn鈥檛 even understand it. It will take a generation or two before that happens.

鈥淏ut if it does take root,鈥� says Mr. Buchanan, 鈥渉e鈥檒l be in the pantheon.鈥�