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North Korea is sending troops to military training areas in Russia, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed this week, calling the development a 鈥渧ery, very serious鈥� escalation in the war.

It is a charge that South Korea and Ukraine have made repeatedly in past days, which the United States had yet to corroborate.

Officials in Kyiv last week released a video showing North Korean troops collecting military fatigues at Russian bases. These troops could begin showing up in Russia鈥檚 Kursk region 鈥� which Ukraine invaded this summer 鈥� as early as this week, they say.

Some 3,000 North Korean troops arrived in Russia鈥檚 far east earlier this month courtesy of Russian naval transport ships, according to U.S. officials. South Korean intelligence agencies estimate that some 12,000 North Korean troops in total are in training.

鈥淲hat exactly they鈥檙e doing is left to be seen,鈥� Secretary Austin said Wednesday. 鈥淲e鈥檙e trying to gain better fidelity on it.鈥�

Why would North Korea do this?

During a June summit in Pyongyang, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin 鈥� in his first visit to the country in nearly a quarter century 鈥� signed a mutual defense pact, promising military support if either country is attacked. It was ratified by Russia鈥檚 lower parliament Thursday.

Ukraine鈥檚 August incursion into Russia鈥檚 Kursk region could, by Moscow鈥檚 reckoning, constitute such an attack.

Russia of course benefits by getting a boost in forces from North Korea, which, with some 1.3 million troops, has the world鈥檚 fourth-largest army.

This is helpful politically for the Kremlin. Within Russia there is growing agitation 鈥� 鈥渁lbeit heavily suppressed鈥� 鈥� surrounding the massive mobilization of troops from eastern Siberia and inner Mongolia in particular, says Ra Mason, associate professor at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England.

鈥淭hose people might be somewhat pacified if North Koreans are being used in place of disproportionately used minorities,鈥� he says. Some 600,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in the war, by U.S. estimates.

Fighters are not something that even Russia鈥檚 few allies have been willing to provide. Some Central Asian republics have warned their citizens against serving as mercenaries in Russia. Cuba鈥檚 Ministry of Foreign Affairs last year called out Moscow for operating a 鈥渉uman trafficking network鈥� on the island after trying to recruit its citizens.

In exchange for forces, Moscow may have promised Pyongyang technology for its nuclear program and for intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. shores, analysts speculate. North Korea also appears determined to launch military spy satellites, known in defense parlance as space-based surveillance systems. The Kremlin could help with this, too.

What鈥檚 clear is that 鈥淩ussia is paying a price鈥� for North Korean aid, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week. 鈥淚n return, it means that they have to deliver innovation.鈥�

What difference could North Korean forces make on the battlefield?

Whether these troops will be sent into battle at all is a key question.

Gen. Charles Flynn, the U.S. Army鈥檚 top commander in the Pacific, said last week that having North Korean troops on the ground would help provide Pyongyang with 鈥渇eedback from a real battlefield鈥� 鈥� a development he called 鈥渧ery concerning.鈥�

North Korean military engineers may already be aiding in the use and repair of the weapons their country has been sending Russia, which includes missiles and more than a million artillery rounds.

As the bulk of the new forces arrives, analysts believe that many could be sent to a place like Kursk, the site of Kyiv鈥檚 cross-border invasion, to fill in for scarce Russian forces there.

This could be easier to justify under international law 鈥� in the way that the special forces of Western nations are thought to be advising Ukrainian troops behind the front lines.

Deploying North Korean forces forward in an offensive operation into, say, Ukraine鈥檚 eastern Donbas region would be far more likely to trigger an 鈥渆scalation spiral,鈥� Dr. Mason says.

Rep. Mike Turner, an Ohio Republican who chairs the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, for instance, said this week 鈥淚f North Korean troops were to invade Ukraine鈥檚 sovereign territory, the United States needs to seriously consider taking direct military action against the North Korean troops.鈥�

鈥淔rom the NATO and U.S. perspective, if they accept the idea that there are actually North Koreans in the trenches of Donbas, that would create a scenario where they might be compelled to do more to support ailing Ukrainian forces,鈥� he adds. 鈥淩ussia might want to avoid that.鈥�

What are the implications for the U.S. and other democratic nations 鈥� and what might they do about it?

For starters, the revelations have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to renew his longstanding pleas for allies to lift restrictions on using long-range missiles to strike inside Russian territory.

鈥淭his escalation on Russia鈥檚 part gives greater ammunition to Zelenskyy to say to the Americans, 鈥榃hy are you making us fight with one arm behind our backs?鈥欌�� says Taras Kuzio, professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy in Ukraine.

The office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, for its part, has said it will 鈥渘ot sit idly by鈥� while North Korean forces flow into Ukraine. It is now reviewing its policy of sending only nonlethal aid to the embattled nation.

This would diminish the supply of artillery shells that South Korea has instead been sending to the U.S. to bolster American stockpiles, which have been dwindling throughout the war.

More broadly, the deepening military ties between North Korea and Russia raise the larger question of what a collaboration of antidemocratic nations can accomplish 鈥� particularly as a destabilizing force.

Though Western officials have been quick to point out that bringing in North Korean troops is an embarrassing sign of Moscow鈥檚 serious war struggles 鈥� Secretary Austin called it 鈥渢in-cupping鈥� 鈥� showcasing eastern Russian training camps for North Korean troops allows the Kremlin to 鈥渟trike fear in an already struggling Ukrainian army and poke its Western backers in the eye,鈥� Dr. Mason notes.

Such tactical moves serve a political purpose. 鈥淭hese associations send a message that Russia won鈥檛 be swayed by international opinion,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 creating what you might describe as an unholy alliance of rogue states.鈥�

This includes China, Iran (a key supplier of drones for Russia), and a now less-isolated North Korea, nations that all delight in upending what they call a U.S.-led unipolar world.

鈥淲hat they dream of is a return to the Cold War when they believed that there was a multipolar world with different centers of gravity,鈥� Dr. Kuzio says.

Such alliances, like the one now bringing North Korean forces into Russia鈥檚 war, 鈥渄estroy what they see as this kind of very pro-American, very pro-spreading-of-democracy model that鈥檚 been around since 1991,鈥� he adds. 鈥淪o the Western, democratic, 鈥榚nd of history鈥� model, shall we say, will not be the only one in town.鈥�