海角大神

If talk of the war in Ukraine last year revolved around how its military offensive was going, today it鈥檚 largely centered on how the nation鈥檚 defensive lines are shaping up.

Just last month, Ukraine鈥檚 prime minister announced a 鈥渞ecord amount鈥� of government funding for the construction of bulwarks.

While that鈥檚 good news to soldiers battling in the trenches against their deeply dug-in Russian adversaries, these sorts of messages do little to counter concerns among Western allies that, two years after President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 invasion, the war has reached a stalemate.

This was also the assessment from Ukraine鈥檚 top general, Valerii Zaluzhny, who was fired 鈥婽hursday in what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 鈥媐ramed as a much-needed pivot.聽

鈥�2024 can become successful for Ukraine only through effective changes in the basis of our defense,鈥� Mr. Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram. Another social media post by a Zelenskyy adviser added that Ukraine needs to prevent stagnation on the front line, since it negatively affects public opinion.聽

Stalemate is a concern, too, for Republican lawmakers in the United States who are withholding war funds for Ukraine while demanding, among other things, that Kyiv 鈥� and the Biden administration 鈥� articulate just how the war against Russia might be won.聽

It鈥檚 a fair request, argues John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a bipartisan think tank in Washington.

Promising to support Ukraine 鈥渇or as long as it takes鈥� does not a strategy make. The U.S. needs a coherent plan, he says, 鈥渢o break the stalemate and convince Putin he can鈥檛 outlast the West.鈥澛�

Coming up with a 鈥渢heory of victory,鈥� including a realistic assessment of how Kyiv might win, would, 鈥淚 think, ease some concerns of supporters and opponents [of war funding] 鈥� if it鈥檚 a good answer,鈥� says retired Col. Mark Cancian, senior adviser on international security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also in Washington.

鈥淭here鈥檚 already a lot of discomfort, even among Ukraine鈥檚 supporters, about how this is going to end 鈥� or is this going to be a forever war?鈥�

Training and equipment needed聽

Kyiv鈥檚 previous plan for winning centered on reclaiming the occupied territories 鈥渂ite by bite,鈥� Colonel Cancian explains. The Ukrainian army fought back Russian invaders in Kyiv and then in Kharkiv by the spring of 2022. By the following October, it had pushed the Russians out of Kherson.聽

鈥淲hen the counteroffensive began last year, many people expected something like that 鈥� that is, that the Ukrainians would take another bite out of the occupied territories,鈥� he says. 鈥淢aybe they鈥檇 get to the Sea of Azov, maybe they鈥檇 get halfway there. But they would take a bite out, then rebuild, then take another bite 鈥� and just keep going until they reoccupied their country.鈥�

Instead, they have become tangled up in massive Russian defensive zones laden with mines.

Without enough de-mining equipment and vehicles, Ukrainian forces have sometimes had to resort to going out with ropes and grappling hooks that troops pull across fields. A plan for a renewed offensive, analysts say, could focus on better training and more equipment for crossing those fields.

At the same time, Ukraine is struggling to execute what鈥檚 known in military parlance as combined arms maneuvers. This involves coordinating on the battlefield between, say, infantry and artillery forces in a way that defending against one makes the adversary vulnerable to the other. It鈥檚 a tall order: 鈥婳nly the United States鈥� most experienced allies do it really well, analysts say.

Keeping pace聽

As much of a slog as the war may seem, Mr. Hardie argues the 鈥渟talemate鈥� description is unhelpful, since it seems to suggest 鈥渢hat Washington could unilaterally walk away without severely damaging U.S. interests.鈥澛�

The reality, he says, is that both sides must keep pace or collapse.

If aid from NATO nations dwindles, Russia could see an opening to try a new offensive amid a Ukrainian lack of ammunition and equipment.

President Zelenskyy succeeded in securing about $54 billion in fresh support from the European Union last week, as Hungary lifted its veto on further Ukraine aid. The EU, however, is expected to fall short of its goal to supply 1 million ammunition rounds to Ukraine by March. Leaders have promised that they鈥檙e still working to ramp up the European defense manufacturing base.聽聽

For the U.S., continuing to aid a beleaguered Ukraine is also a good strategy, argues Stephen Biddle, professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.聽

鈥淭hat鈥檚 the smart move for the U.S.,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he money we spend on Ukraine isn鈥檛 quite a rounding error for the U.S. defense budget, but it鈥檚 not a huge fraction of it.鈥�

It鈥檚 also a 鈥渧ery efficient鈥� way to push back against a 鈥減attern of aggression by Russia that could, if continued, threaten treaty allies for whom we have a substantially greater legal obligation to shed blood.鈥�

War weariness on 鈥渙ne or probably two sides鈥� eventually spurs adversaries to accept compromises they would otherwise reject, Dr. Biddle says.

But not yet. A vision of 鈥渧ictory鈥� through negotiated settlement after a grinding war of attrition 鈥渋s not an easy sell,鈥� Dr. Biddle acknowledges. Fighting will continue until it鈥檚 clear on both sides that there is little chance of a breakthrough.

Still, among everyday Ukrainians, the needle is very gradually beginning to shift toward territorial concessions to Russia. While 8 in 10 Ukrainians still object to that idea, according to a December poll from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the number is shifting: Nine out of 10 were opposed in the same poll last May.聽

As Ukraine considers a new mobilization law to call up more male soldiers, those figures could shift further.

In the meantime, Western-supplied weapons, training, and anti-mine equipment 鈥� as well as long-range arms to harass Russian forces 鈥� could help Ukraine punch through Russian defenses and put itself in a stronger negotiating position, Mr. Hardie argues.聽

鈥淥ur goal in the West,鈥� he says, 鈥渟hould be to maximize Ukraine鈥檚 leverage鈥� for the truce that may one day come to pass.