海角大神

Ukraine鈥檚 fight to聽oust聽occupying Russian forces聽is being聽bolstered by a growing array of heavy American armaments 鈥撀燽uoying fighters鈥� hopes聽even as analysts warn that weapons alone聽can鈥檛 guarantee victory.聽

U.S. Abrams tanks began arriving in Ukraine this week, months ahead of initial estimates, to help ground forces push into Russian-held territory. Next聽the Biden administration is reportedly poised to announce that U.S. long-range ballistic missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, will soon be on their way to the war zone, too.

These weapons, their acronym fittingly聽pronounced 鈥渁ttack-em鈥檚,鈥� have been at the top of Ukraine鈥檚 wish list since the start of Russia鈥檚 February 2022 invasion. With a range of 190 miles, they can strike further into Russian-held territory than any other missile nations have thus far provided to Kyiv.聽

They also mark the fulfillment of a mammoth list of heavy munitions for which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long lobbied.聽They have the potential to cause considerable disruption to Russia鈥檚 war effort, defense analysts say.聽Still, some add,聽their expected arrival comes with no guarantee聽that Ukraine will be able to accelerate its progress against dug-in Russian lines as troops head into another winter of war.

The counteroffensive 鈥渋s taking longer than the planners in the war games 鈥� anticipated,鈥� Gen. Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged last week, with the bluntness that has characterized his assessments of conditions there. 鈥淏ut that鈥檚 the difference between war on paper and real war. There are real human beings, in real vehicles, moving across real minefields.鈥�

U.S. tanks and long-range missiles, in addition to being powerful tools of war, will be big morale boosts for Ukraine. But to ultimately attain what U.S. officials say is the desired end state 鈥� a 鈥渏ust and durable peace鈥� 鈥� Kyiv and its allies must also be honest in the weeks to come about what these weapons can and cannot do, analysts say.

General Milley, for his part, has warned of the difficulty that Ukrainian fighters face going forward. Russia has built trenches fortified with 鈥渕inefields, dragon鈥檚 teeth, barbed wire, strong points, and so on,鈥� he said last week in Ramstein, Germany, following his final meeting of Western leaders supporting Ukraine before he retires at the end of this month.聽

While Ukrainian forces 鈥渉ave penetrated several layers of this defense,鈥澛爃e said, they are now 鈥済oing very slow鈥� as they endeavor to push through a 鈥渄efensive belt that stretches the entire length and breadth of Russian-occupied Ukraine.鈥�

The decision to give U.S. long-range missiles to Ukraine represents a striking evolution in thinking on the part of the Biden administration.聽

Evolving U.S. positions聽

In summer 2022, national security adviser Jake Sullivan downplayed the notion of providing them in order, he said, to avoid a 鈥淭hird World War.鈥澛�

Earlier this month, when asked about concerns that weapons like ATACMS could be used to strike beyond Russian-occupied Ukraine into actual Russian territory, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken struck a philosophical note.聽

鈥淲hen it comes to how Ukrainians use these systems, the targeting decisions are theirs 鈥� they鈥檙e not ours,鈥� he said. 鈥淎s a matter of our own policy, we do not encourage, nor do we enable, the use of our weapon systems outside of Ukraine 鈥� but again, fundamentally these are Ukrainian decisions.鈥澛�

As wars progress, 鈥減arties to the conflict learn more about what does and does not count as escalatory,鈥� says Anthony Pfaff, research professor in military strategy and ethics at the U.S. Army War College鈥檚 Strategic Studies Institute.

The shift of Western allies from earlier extreme caution toward potential Russian redlines could in turn represent 鈥渕ore tolerance for risking escalation up to a certain point,鈥� he adds.

At the same time, 鈥淯kraine is at war with Russia. An attack on a legitimate military target inside Russia is in line鈥� with the parameters of international law, Dr. Pfaff notes.聽

As Ukraine continues to strike inside Russia, there could be a growing acceptance among Western backers that this is as it should be.

The United Kingdom and France have already supplied Ukraine with their own long-range missiles, with ranges of up to 155 miles.

鈥淭he lack of Russian response to these deliveries, even after they鈥檝e reportedly been used quite effectively on the battlefield, indicates that ATACMS wouldn鈥檛 be a bridge too far,鈥� says Benton Coblentz, a defense analyst at the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Eurasia Center.聽

The challenges for Ukraine聽

Still, there will be no easy answers for a Ukrainian victory聽in this war, Western military officials repeatedly emphasize.聽

It is true, for example, that ATACMS will be highly effective when they first arrive on the battlefield, says Daniel Davis, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and now a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington.

That鈥檚 because the long-range missiles will 鈥減ut an entire swath of territory in play that wasn鈥檛 before,鈥� he notes.聽

Their warheads, considerably more powerful than those of their shorter-range counterparts, will also be capable of striking larger targets 鈥� causing great damage to Russian logistics networks, for one thing, Mr. Coblentz adds.

When High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) missile launchers were supplied to Kyiv last year, for example, Ukrainian troops used them to great effect, demolishing Russian ammunition and fuel depots, logistical bases, and command centers.

That may happen again with ATACMS, but not for very long, Mr. Davis predicts. After encountering HIMARS, Russian commanders learned to spread out, camouflage, or move forces out of range. They also deployed 鈥減retty effective electronic warfare鈥� to jam GPS signals and decrease weapons鈥� accuracy.

What鈥檚 more, there remains the crucial issue of troop strength for Ukraine in the face of tremendous losses of Ukrainian fighters. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a finite number,鈥� Mr. Davis adds, 鈥渁nd not expandable.鈥澛�

There are some 200,000 to 300,000 Russians currently fighting in Ukraine. Even if Kyiv鈥檚 goals of ejecting them are realistic, Ukrainian leaders must also consider the costs of accomplishing this, analysts point out.聽

As Ukrainians are wounded and die in battle, it lessens Kyiv鈥檚 鈥渇uture capacity, its capacity to function as a state 鈥� you鈥檙e just wiping out their potential for a generation,鈥� Mr. Davis adds.聽

This is the historic tragedy of war; how to disrupt it is less clear.聽

Some argue that Kyiv, with momentum on its side and Western support at a zenith, needs to get to the negotiating table in the near future to freeze the lines and 鈥渕ake the best deal with Russia for Kyiv to maintain its political independence and all the territory it has right now,鈥� as Mr. Davis puts it.

Decisions about when it鈥檚 time to consider a political settlement are ultimately Ukraine鈥檚 to make, military officials including General Milley have emphasized. President Zelenskyy has said that negotiations can鈥檛 begin until Russian soldiers are ejected from Ukrainian soil.聽

Until this happens, or his position changes, into the foreseeable future, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is urging fellow defense ministers to 鈥渄ig deep,鈥� dipping into their 鈥渇ormidable鈥� arsenals to 鈥渃ontinue to move heaven and earth to get Ukraine what it needs right now and over the long haul.鈥�

As autumn turns to winter, the grounds will get muddy, then freeze again as the war continues. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no intention whatsoever by the Ukrainians to stop fighting,鈥� General Milley stressed in his valedictory address at Ramstein.聽

鈥淎nd every inch of reclaimed territory鈥� will be the result of 鈥渢he bravery, the honor, and the incredible sacrifice鈥� these soldiers will make as they face off against Russian forces mobilized by Vladimir Putin last year to man the 鈥渂leak and lonely鈥� shadows of desolate trenches.聽

鈥淭hey鈥檙e not extraordinarily well trained, not extraordinarily well led,鈥� General Milley said, 鈥渂ut they are there.鈥澛�