海角大神

On the eve of a closely watched NATO summit this week one question loomed large: how to solve the alliance鈥檚 Turkey problem.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an for months had been a holdout聽in efforts to admit Sweden to NATO. He charged聽that Sweden isn鈥檛 doing enough to punish terrorists who include, in his view, those who burn Qurans and openly agitate for Kurdish independence.聽

Since NATO鈥檚 founding treaty demands unanimity when it comes to new members,聽a veto was聽within his power.聽

But on Monday the ground shifted. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that Mr. Erdo臒an聽will聽forward to the Turkish parliament Sweden鈥檚 bid to join the military alliance.

鈥淚鈥檓 glad to announce ... that President Erdo臒an has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible, and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification,鈥� Mr. Stoltenberg told a news conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, where the summit is taking place.

For NATO, hoping that the upcoming summit would be a show of unity, the shift appears to be a major victory. In many ways, the bloc was already treating Sweden as a member, including sharing intelligence.聽

Yet even with Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 change of heart, the maneuvering points to a continuing challenge. Turkey is both essential to NATO and often out of line with it. Members will hope the breakthrough signals progress in efforts to bridge the gap.

The mounting tensions had reached the point that there were questions over 鈥渨hether Turkey, in fact, belongs in the alliance,鈥� said Max Bergmann, who directs the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, in a briefing last week.

Mr. Erdo臒an, however, is well aware of NATO鈥檚 importance to his country. 鈥淔or all the differences Turkey has with the alliance, it also has an interest in resolving them,鈥� says Ian Lesser, who is based in Brussels as vice president of the German Marshall Fund.

The alliance had聽been reasonably accommodating to Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 demands, analysts say. Sweden passed tougher anti-terrorism laws, which required amending its constitution. Sweden鈥檚 Supreme Court has also cleared the way for the extradition of a legal Turkish migrant suspected of posting manipulated photos of Mr. Erdo臒an online, which is punishable under Turkish law.

Sweden was聽also聽one of the first nations rushing in assistance after the devastating Turkish earthquakes in February. It even lifted a 2019 arms embargo against Turkey.聽

Sweden, Turkey, and Russia: a long history

Sweden鈥檚 connection to both Turkey and Russia goes back centuries.聽

Despite a roughly 200-year history of neutrality, Sweden has had its share of run-ins with Russia. In 1708, after a victorious march on Moscow in which he routed Russian forces, Swedish King Charles XII was ultimately defeated and fled.

He took refuge in the Ottoman Empire, and Swedish-Turkish political relations date back to this point, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs notes on its website.

It was in 1952 that Turkey joined NATO, which released a promotional film at the time extolling the strategic advantages of its new member state. Among other things, Turkey offers control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles, straits linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean 鈥� a considerable check on the Soviet navy.聽

Turkey would become, the film promised, the 鈥渟trong right anchor鈥� of the alliance.聽聽

Today, at some 355,000 troops, Turkey has the largest standing army in NATO after the United States 鈥� another source of leverage within the alliance, notes Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy program at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington. France and Germany have forces of roughly 200,000 each.

Most recently, Ankara has contributed to NATO military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, which has endeared its troops to their Western counterparts.聽

鈥淭hey鈥檙e heavy-duty players because they understand the Middle East, they understand Asia,鈥澛爏ays a senior NATO military official, who asked to be anonymous due to the issue鈥檚 sensitivity, prior to Monday鈥檚 announcement.聽鈥淭hey鈥檙e passionate, very devoted to the team 鈥� and they get things done.鈥澛�

Yet Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 embrace of autocracy and deals with Moscow over the years have driven a wedge between Turkey and NATO allies. Many point in particular to Ankara鈥檚 2019 acquisition of a Russian missile system rather than a NATO-made equivalent.

For Ankara, this soured relations with the alliance and got it sanctioned by the U.S., and it was ejected from the F-35 fighter jet program 鈥� all excellent developments from Moscow鈥檚 geopolitical perspective.

There have been Turkish run-ins with Russia, too, including the 2015 shoot-down of a Russian military aircraft on the Syrian border after it violated Turkish airspace.

And though Turkey refused to take part in sanctions against Moscow in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, it has closed off key waterway access to Russian warships.聽

Lessening leverage

As recently as early on Monday, Mr. Erdo臒an vaguely suggested that he would only admit Sweden if the European Union were to 鈥渃lear Turkey鈥檚 way鈥� to membership.

But analysts saw an advantage to downplaying the importance of Sweden鈥檚 actual accession. The more Sweden鈥檚 entry seemed a fait accompli, the less leverage Mr. Erdo臒an had for extracting concessions.聽

Even prior to the summit, NATO headquarters was already operating as if Sweden was in the alliance, including sharing intelligence. 鈥淧ut it this way, I鈥檓 in briefings where the slide will say 鈥榗lassified鈥� at whatever level, 鈥榬eleasable to Sweden,鈥欌�� says the senior NATO military official.聽

Sweden is at the table in the Military Committee, which guides policy and strategy for the alliance, as well as the North Atlantic Council, which is NATO鈥檚 main decision-making body, Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of NATO鈥檚 Military Committee, noted at a pre-Vilnius briefing for reporters last week. 鈥淭hey know basically everything.鈥�