海角大神

When a news story leaked last month that Washington is helping Ukraine kill Russian generals through United States intelligence tips, Pentagon officials quickly took to the podium to clarify a few things.聽

鈥淲e do not provide intelligence on the location of senior [Russian] military leaders on the battlefield, or participate in the targeting decisions of the Ukrainian military,鈥� Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters in a May 5 briefing.

The U.S. does indeed share secrets with Kyiv, which are 鈥渢imely鈥� as well as 鈥渦seful,鈥� to help the country defend itself, he said.

鈥淐ertainly there is an element of curation鈥� also involved before this classified information is passed along, to protect America鈥檚 spies and their methods.

Beyond that, U.S. officials declined to give more details 鈥� including refusing to answer a question about whether the intelligence involves Russian logistics or even weather forecasts 鈥� other than to say that Ukraine is 鈥渦nder no obligation to tell us how they鈥檙e going to use鈥� this American information.聽聽

The episode is an illustration of the tricky line that the U.S. must walk in its intelligence sharing with Ukraine: providing enough to bolster Kyiv鈥檚 military defenses 鈥� and to satisfy U.S. lawmakers who complain that the Biden administration should be doing more 鈥� but not enough to reveal sensitive U.S. sources or goad Russian President Vladimir Putin聽into expanding the conflict to include NATO.聽

鈥淭his is administration policy: We鈥檙e telling Ukrainians 鈥楾his is where Russian units are鈥� so they can defend themselves, not so they can kill Russian generals,鈥� says Daniel Hoffman, who served as Moscow station chief for the CIA.

For Mr. Putin, this may be 鈥渁 difference without a distinction,鈥� he adds. 鈥淗is generals are dead 鈥� but it鈥檚 not enough to start a nuclear war.鈥澛�

鈥淧re-bunking鈥� versus Russia

Though the U.S. has no desire to give Moscow a license to escalate, 鈥淲e鈥檙e constantly signaling to Russia that we鈥檙e supporting the Ukrainians,鈥� says Emily Harding, deputy director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former analyst at the CIA.

While not without risks, this is designed as a deterrent, she adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 saying to Putin, 鈥榃e鈥檙e not going to make this easy, we鈥檙e going to keep the fight going, and it鈥檚 going to be disastrous for you and your military.鈥欌�澛�

In the run-up to the Russian invasion, this included efforts to 鈥減re-bunk鈥� rather than scramble to debunk Moscow鈥檚 more outrageous claims. In the process, the U.S. has turned on the spigots of intelligence, sharing it with Kyiv and also with the press.

It marked a shift in thinking from earlier, more close-lipped policy of previous administrations and 鈥渟eems to have been quite useful,鈥� says Kristian Gustafson, deputy director of Brunel University鈥檚 Center for Intelligence and Security Studies in London.

Prior to the Russian invasion,聽U.S. officials warned of concerning troop formations, for example, which might normally be classified secrets, and also that Russia was producing a 鈥渧ery graphic鈥� deep-fake video intended to drum up support for Mr. Putin鈥檚 invasion.聽

U.S. officials made intelligence public in the hopes of convincing allies that Mr. Putin was indeed planning to wage war in Ukraine 鈥� an event that British and American intelligence agencies were forecasting, but French officials were not.

At the same time, the U.S. has taken great care not to give away its own secret methods of collection to Ukrainian agencies that, though tenaciously fighting Moscow, are also riddled with Russian spies.聽

鈥淭hat鈥檚 a serious concern with the Ukraine, because it鈥檚 been an [espionage] target of the Russians for decades,鈥� Ms. Harding of CSIS says. 鈥淎nd the Russians are very good.鈥澛�

鈥淭he question,鈥� she adds, 鈥渋s always how much can you share 鈥� in as much detail as possible 鈥� without sharing exactly how you know it.鈥澛�

Intelligence officials faced just such a puzzle with the April sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian fleet, Dr. Gustafson says.聽

Russia claimed it was destroyed in a shipboard fire caused by detonated ammunition before it became clear it was struck by Ukrainian missiles 鈥� a severe blow to Russian pride.

Reports later emerged that U.S. intelligence had helped identify, though not target, the Moskva. 鈥淗ow did we or they know the ship was there? How did we or they know that the ship鈥檚 targeting radars were broken?鈥� says Dr. Gustafson.

A lesson from World War II

After breaking German Enigma encryptions, Allies in World War II faced a similar challenge: how to act on intelligence while also ensuring that Berlin stayed in the dark about this new ability to intercept their coded communiques.聽

This meant, say, not attacking Axis convoys before flying a highly-visible Allied plane overhead, Dr. Gustafson notes.聽

In this way, Axis powers could conclude it was aerial reconnaissance, and not decrypted Enigma code, that gave their movements away.

In the case of the Moskva, a U.S. human intelligence source could have been talking to a chatty Russian shipyard worker who happened to mention that the Moskva鈥檚 tracking radars were working poorly or not at all, he adds. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a nice bit of intelligence, but you have to come up with multiple ways of knowing things.鈥�

This might mean, among other things, putting out word that the Americans had spotted the ship through satellite imagery or sentinel aircraft to conceal another targeting system they don鈥檛 want Russians to know they have.

In the wider war, although U.S. intelligence officials do not, as they have stressed, give Ukraine targeting information, 鈥淭hey might say, 鈥榃e happen to have seen an awful lot of radio traffic emanating from this place just to the west of town X,鈥� Dr. Gustafson says.

Ukraine might then decide to send an electronic warfare unit to have a quick listen. They might then determine the building is a headquarters with generals in it.

鈥淚s that targeting information? No, you haven鈥檛 told them anything other than that.鈥澛�

At the same time, not all Ukrainian intelligence coups are due to sophisticated tradecraft.聽

Much is the result of Russian forces making rookie mistakes that allies are using to their advantage, notes Javed Ali, associate professor at the University of Michigan鈥檚 Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy and a former intelligence officer with the Pentagon鈥檚 Defense Intelligence Agency.聽

鈥淚ntelligence doesn鈥檛 always have to be on the clandestine side 鈥� especially when Russian military commanders are using unsecured phone lines and social media platforms to communicate on the battlefield or back to Moscow,鈥� he says.

Such intercepted communications, in particular when it comes to low-ranking Russian soldiers, are painting a picture of 鈥測oung kids who are scared and not equipped and who hate fighting,鈥� Mr. Ali adds.聽

Given this, when Russian soldiers are captured by Ukrainian forces on the battlefield, U.S. officials could help provide questions 鈥渢hat really smart analysts flush out鈥� to come up with intelligence derived through empathetic, or at least thoughtful, interrogations.聽

鈥淚f you鈥檙e hearing the same story from soldiers in 20 different units, then you start to see patterns and trends emerge,鈥� he says.

And as the war morphs from frequently changing battle lines to an increasingly entrenched slugfest, tactical intelligence becomes less important than understanding Mr. Putin鈥檚 strategic thinking, Mr. Ali says.聽

鈥淲hat is Putin thinking? What will his next moves be? How will all this lead to an end-state that is satisfactory to both sides? That is where I think the role of intelligence is going to be very important,鈥� he adds.聽

鈥淎nd those are also the kind of insights that are hardest to get.鈥�