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Challenge for US forces in Iraq: align military mission with the political

US troops sent to Iraq to assess the humanitarian relief operation are coming home, but that's not necessarily the end of US military operations there, Pentagon officials say.

By Anna Mulrine , Staff writer
Washington

One week after the Pentagon began a US military operation in Iraq for the first time since America ended its war there in 2011, President Obama declared it a success.

In part, that鈥檚 because it turned out that there were 鈥渇ar fewer Yazidis鈥 鈥 the ethnic group that the US military had deployed to assess needs for their protection 鈥 鈥渢rapped on Mount Sinjar than previously feared,鈥 Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, explained to reporters Thursday.

鈥淭hose who remain on Mount Sinjar are in better condition than we previously thought,鈥 he said, adding that the US military discovered that many Yazidis actually live on Mount Sinjar 鈥渁nd may not want to leave.鈥

As a result of these efforts and discoveries, President Obama said, 鈥淲e do not expect there to be an additional operation to evacuate people off the mountain, and it鈥檚 unlikely that we鈥檙e going to need to continue humanitarian air drops on the mountain.鈥

That means, he added, that the 鈥渕ajority of the military personnel who conducted the assessment will be leaving Iraq in the coming days.鈥

So, then, does that mean that US military operations in Iraq will come to an end?聽

Probably not, say senior US military officials. Though US troops were ostensibly sent in to help avoid a humanitarian crisis 鈥 bringing to 1,000 the number of US service members in the country 鈥 鈥渕any鈥 will stay 鈥渢o protect American citizens and facilities,鈥 Rear Admiral Kirby said. 鈥淭he situation in Iraq remains dangerous, and our efforts there are not over.鈥

The fact that US troops will be staying in Iraq raises some pointed questions for US policy, and for the Pentagon tasked for carrying it out.

One involved the quality of US intelligence going into the latest operation. Why, reporters asked during the briefing Thursday, for example, didn鈥檛 US surveillance and drone operations pick up on the actual numbers of Yazidis on Mount Sinjar?

After all, for the US military to be planning operations without accurate intelligence is unwise 鈥 and highly uncharacteristic 鈥 analysts noted. As a result, some wondered,聽more pointedly, whether humanitarian operations were simply an excuse to get the US military back in Iraq.

Pentagon officials were quick to push back against that notion.

鈥淚t鈥檚 very difficult to get those counts from the air,鈥 Kirby said. 鈥淚 mean, it鈥檚 just an imperfect science. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance flights from the air are useful, but they are not perfect,鈥 he added. 鈥淚 think it鈥檇 be difficult and imprudent to think that we could know everything simply by flying over a mountain, even 24/7.鈥

Even so, there may indeed have been 鈥渢ens of thousands of Yazidis on that mountain,鈥 but many of them left once they had food and US protection, Kirby argued.

The greater question is, now that the humanitarian mission of protecting the Yazidis seems to be complete for the time being, what are the circumstances under which the US military might launch further airstrikes? Could this happen if, for example, the Islamic State (IS) fighters try to advance on Baghdad?

The authority that the US military has been given to 鈥減rotect American citizens and facilities鈥 could indeed be extended to Baghdad, Kirby told reporters. 鈥淚鈥檓 not going to rule anything in or out, but to the degree that we conduct any airstrikes in and around Baghdad, it would be under the authority we鈥檝e been given by the commander-in-chief to protect US personnel and facilities.鈥

That said, he added, 鈥淲e鈥檙e not going to become Iraq鈥檚 air force.鈥

Indeed, Pentagon officials have repeatedly emphasized that the solution to the violence in Iraq is political, not military.聽

That Iraqi security forces have been unable to protect their own people is largely due to politics, Pentagon officials note. Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki turned the Iraqi army and police into a personal security force, which in turn alienated Sunni citizens.

The hope is that now that Iraq has a new designated prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, he may be more amenable to unification measures to bring Sunnis into the political fold.

If the Pentagon wants to help this process however, the US air strikes must be tied to political goals for Iraq, says Stephen Biddle, professor of international affairs at George Washington University and an adjunct senior fellow for defense policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.聽

This past week, 鈥淭he air strikes we鈥檝e been engaged in were unconditional 鈥 we didn鈥檛 get anything in exchange for doing them,鈥 says Professor Biddle, who has advised US commanders in Iraq.聽

If the US wants to help isolate Sunnis from IS it must first 鈥済et the Iraqi security forces [ISF] professionalized and to the point where the secular insurgents now allied with [IS] will put themselves under ISF protection and become co-belligerents鈥 against IS.

And that, he adds, 鈥渨ill require some pretty sweet carrots, and some pretty hard sticks,鈥 the latter in the form of swiftly stopping all airstrikes if Iraqis don鈥檛 keep up their end of the bargain, Biddle added.

For now, although Mr. Obama said that 鈥渕ost鈥 of the US advisers sent to Iraq for this latest mission will be headed home, Pentagon officials hastened to add that 鈥渕any鈥 of the 1,000 US troops currently in Iraq will be staying there.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not over,鈥 Kirby told reporters. 鈥淣o, it鈥檚 not over.鈥