海角大神

Veteran North Korea watchers, citing what they see as increasingly troubling signs coming from the dictatorial regime, are voicing concerns that its new young leader, Kim Jong-un, could do something ill-advised, even start a war.

On Friday North Korea renewed what the U.S. has condemned as its 鈥渂ellicose rhetoric,鈥� saying Kim had ordered the nation鈥檚 missile forces to prepare to strike the United States and South Korea.

In response to the prospect of North Korea following through on this and other marginally less dire threats, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday that the US military 鈥渨ill unequivocally defend, and [is] unequivocally committed to the alliance with, South Korea.鈥�

But if hostilities were in fact to erupt, how might they play out?

Some former US Special Operations Forces and longtime Korea defense analysts have their own thoughts on what an 鈥渦nequivocal鈥� US military response could look like, including how US troops would be deployed in the event of a lethal first strike on US and allied military forces by North Korea 鈥� precisely the sort of move Mr. Kim has been threatening to make.

What would such a first North Korean move resemble? It might involve small-scale infiltrations using mini-submarines, assassination attempts, 鈥渕aybe shooting someone on the DMZ [demilitarized zone] or missile tests that fly too close over Japan,鈥� says Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.

This might be done 鈥渢o show he鈥檚 in charge, he won鈥檛 be intimidated, or because he鈥檚 truly desperate,鈥� Dr. Cronin says.

In the past, most such provocations generally have been met with international condemnation and strengthened sanctions.

Should Kim choose to do 鈥渟omething even more outlandish,鈥� the US military and South Korean response would be more dire, he adds.

One of the scenarios that most concerns US defense analysts, for example, involves North Korea鈥檚 estimated 500,000 to 700,000 rounds of artillery aimed at Seoul, says retired Brig. Gen. Russell Howard, former commander of the 1st Special Forces Group, which has an Asia focus.聽

Should Kim decide to begin firing them, he says, 鈥渋n the first few hours of the conflict, it would be pretty ugly.鈥�

At the same time, North Korea could begin 鈥渟warming鈥� its sizable contingent of 600,000 Special Operations commandos, adds Mr. Howard, now the director of the Terrorism, Research, and Education Program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.聽

The 鈥渟ole purpose鈥� of this group, he adds 鈥渋s to infiltrate the South and create havoc.鈥�

The realistic goal of the North Korean military would likely be to get some 150,000 of them over the border, where they would 鈥済o for infrastructure,鈥� such as communications and transportation systems.聽

Complicating efforts to find these infiltrators would be a massive influx of North Korean refugees, in the neighborhood of 3.5 to 4 million into China and another 2.5 million likely moving south into South Korea.

鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a human disaster that we鈥檝e never experienced 鈥� there are going to be so many refugees,鈥� Howard says. 鈥淚t would just be a nightmare to try to separate civilians from the battlefield.鈥澛�

Regular North Korea units might attempt to come across the border 鈥渨ith a huge burst of energy in the very beginning,鈥� he says.

鈥淏ut as the ammunition starts to run low, as food is low, with counterattacks, I have my own personal view that they would probably start to disintegrate within the first week,鈥� Howard adds. 鈥淚鈥檓 not being flip when I say this, but it really depends on how hungry they are.鈥�

Analysts suspect that the North Korean military is not particularly well-fed. Even though humanitarian rations meant for the North Korean population were once diverted to feed them, there are growing indications that this is no longer happening under Kim, Howard says.聽

The US military would immediately respond to the initial barrage of artillery with air power, using B-52s and highly-accurate B-2 stealth bombers to take them out, along with other key command-and-control targets.聽

But while the US would no doubt disable these systems, 鈥渢he artillery or chemical weapons that North Korea is capable of firing into Seoul 鈥� a city of some 20 million 鈥� would still have a devastating impact,鈥� says Victor Cha, the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.聽

鈥淲e would counter, but they could fire thousands of rounds of artillery first, before we could neutralize it. That has always been one of the problems,鈥� he adds: While the North Korean military may not be particularly well-rounded or strong, it 鈥渃an still do a terrible amount of damage.鈥澛�

One key focus for the US and South Korean militaries would be psychological operations, which would be focused on trying 鈥渢o dissuade the North Korean public from believing all this propaganda they鈥檝e been hearing their whole lives.鈥澛�

This, too, would be no small feat. This is true, for example, even among North Korean defectors.聽

鈥淓ven though they know they鈥檙e starving and it takes a lot of courage to defect, they are still hesitant to blame North Korean leadership,鈥� Howard notes. 鈥淥ften they are still more inclined to blame the West. North Korea is so isolated, the US is viewed as 鈥榯he great Satan鈥� on steroids.鈥澛�

Most difficult of all, perhaps, would be the mission that US Special Operations Forces would be given: There is little doubt that they would be deployed with an urgent order to secure North Korean weapons of mass destruction.聽

Accomplishing that 鈥渨ould be tough,鈥� Howard says. 鈥淚t would be very tough.鈥�