A nuclear deal could end the Iran war. What was Obama鈥檚 version Trump rejected?
In the absence of renewed talks, the U.S. and Iran are wrangling over the Strait of Hormuz. But the main dispute between the two is still Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.聽Here鈥檚 a look at the 2015 JCPOA.
In the absence of renewed talks, the U.S. and Iran are wrangling over the Strait of Hormuz. But the main dispute between the two is still Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.聽Here鈥檚 a look at the 2015 JCPOA.
Iran鈥檚 nuclear program is the main reason U.S. President Donald Trump said he had to attack the country on Feb. 28. Resolution of the dispute over that program could help move the two sides beyond a ceasefire and toward a negotiated end to the war.
Mr. Trump has vowed for years to deliver a 鈥渕uch better鈥� deal preventing Iran from attaining a bomb than what he calls the 鈥渄isastrous鈥� one concluded under President Barack Obama more than a decade ago.
A comprehensive deal ending the Iran war could be the president鈥檚 last best opportunity to make good on his pledge.
The Iran nuclear deal of 2015 鈥� formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA 鈥� was reached after more than two years of intense, marathon negotiations largely between the United States and Iran, though other signatories to the deal were all the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany.
At the time, the Obama White House hailed the JCPOA as a new high mark in nuclear nonproliferation diplomacy, citing the agreement鈥檚 limits on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and the roadblocks it placed on Iran鈥檚 path to ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. But from the outset, critics 鈥� including Mr. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 鈥� blasted the deal as seriously flawed, at best only postponing Iran鈥檚 nuclear threat to the U.S. and its partners, and rewarding Iran for its bad behavior.
During his first term, in 2018, President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA. That freed Iran from the deal鈥檚 limits on its nuclear program and cleared the way for the progress that Mr. Trump, in his second term, has so far chosen to address militarily: with airstrikes last June, and now as part of the U.S.-Israeli war.
Yet, as recently as Monday, the president was on social media vowing to replace 鈥渙ne of the Worst Deals ever made鈥� with a great one. So, what were the JCPOA鈥檚 pros and cons?
What were the deal鈥檚 strong points?
- Under the JCPOA, Iran was required to relinquish almost all of its stockpile of enriched uranium (above a certain threshold of purity, the fissile material for a nuclear weapon), and, indeed, it sent all but a small amount out of the country.
- Iran was required to dismantle thousands of its most advanced centrifuges 鈥� the machines that process uranium to higher degrees of enrichment 鈥� and was barred for a decade from operating anything beyond several thousand older centrifuges to produce low-enriched uranium for medical and research purposes.
- Under the deal, Iran was subject to unprecedented transparency and inspection measures and required to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor with cameras and inspectors its centrifuges and stockpiling of uranium.
- The deal awarded Iran sanctions relief for compliance but also included 鈥渟napback鈥� provisions for reapplying sanctions in the event of violations.
What were the shortfalls?
- Sunset provisions that allowed the strict limits on enrichment to phase out after a decade, including a return to industrial scale enrichment after 2030. The sunset clauses led critics to describe the JCPOA as more of a speed bump than a stop sign for Iran鈥檚 nuclear ambitions.
- A lifting of sanctions that allowed Iran to access billions of dollars of frozen assets 鈥� critics claim up to $100 billion 鈥� held in overseas accounts. As early as his successful 2016 presidential campaign, Mr. Trump has cited to great effect what he says were the 鈥減allets of cash鈥� that the U.S. shipped to Tehran over the final days of Mr. Obama鈥檚 presidency. Critics say those sums helped Iran fund and arm its regional allies, including Hezbollah.
- Transparency provisions that stopped short of 鈥渁nytime, anywhere鈥� inspections and that allowed Tehran to put its military bases off-limits to IAEA inspectors.
- The agreement said nothing about Iran鈥檚 ballistic missile development program 鈥� thus ignoring the vehicle that could potentially be used to deliver a nuclear weapon to its target 鈥� nor did it address Iran鈥檚 use of proxies to further its policies.
Now, in the midst of a costly war, it is the critics鈥� turn to lambast the president鈥檚 鈥渟trike first, then talk鈥� approach to Iran鈥檚 nuclear program 鈥� and to point out that, as imperfect as it might have been, the JCPOA was reached without destabilizing and inconclusive military action.
Still, some protagonists involved with the 2015 nuclear deal say Mr. Trump might have a way to deliver something 鈥渂etter鈥� than the JCPOA. Noting that White House officials have said the president is demanding a 鈥渟uspension鈥� of all nuclear activity for an extended period of time, even some JCPOA negotiators say a deal requiring a full stop of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program would be stronger than one that only puts limits on it.