海角大神

As some chastened U.S. political leaders on both the right and the left have recently discovered, American public support for Ukraine 鈥� and for confronting Russia鈥檚 aggression 鈥� remains strong more than eight months into the war.

First, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy鈥檚 declaration two weeks ago that the 鈥渂lank check鈥� Washington has offered Kyiv would end under a Republican-led Congress got a Bronx cheer 鈥� notably from other prominent Republicans.

Then less than a week later, when a group of progressive House Democrats called in an open letter to聽the Biden administration聽for diplomacy with Russia to explore ways to end the war, the outcry was such that the letter was withdrawn even as the ink dried.

The conclusion widely drawn: With Ukraine garnering strong backing around the country and across the political spectrum, suggestions of anything other than full support in the run-up to contentious midterm elections is a losing proposition.

Yet while that appears to be broadly true, some political observers and foreign-policy experts say the rebuffed challenges to America鈥檚 full-throttle support for the war may yet turn out to be harbingers of deepening doubts 鈥� especially if the war is perceived to be turning into a multiyear slog.

Moreover, the United States may come to regret the rejection of any diplomacy with Russia, others say 鈥� especially if the war鈥檚 tide turns in Russia鈥檚 favor or if a desperate Vladimir Putin resorts to weapons of mass destruction.

鈥淪o far what we鈥檙e seeing are just small cracks in what overall has been very strong support for Ukraine,鈥� says Rajan Menon, a national security and foreign-policy expert at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank in the realist camp that promotes focusing on core U.S. national security interests. 鈥淏ut what these small cracks indicate is that we could see more fissures appearing next year,鈥� he adds, 鈥渆specially if it appears the war isn鈥檛 concluding anytime soon.鈥�

What鈥檚 behind American doubts?

For right now, Mr. Menon says he sees two different reasons behind the doubts surfacing over U.S. Ukraine policy: One he calls the 鈥減rice tag crack,鈥� and the other he labels the 鈥渟afety crack.鈥�

Representative McCarthy鈥檚 comments flowed from the 鈥減rice tag crack,鈥� he says, reflecting growing hostility among some Republicans to President Joe Biden鈥檚 periodic military assistance and civilian aid packages that now total more than $65 billion.

The 鈥渟afety crack鈥� is coming from both experts and average Americans who worry that a drawn-out war, especially one going poorly for Russia, could prompt President Putin to use nuclear weapons or some other weapon of mass destruction, Mr. Menon says.

What continues to outweigh those two basic concerns about the war are two factors buoying support for Ukraine, others say. One is the sense Americans have that Ukraine 鈥� with U.S. military assistance 鈥� is actually winning the war; the other is a strong moral conviction that Russia has launched an unjust war and that supporting Ukraine鈥檚 resistance to that aggression is the right thing for America to do.

鈥淭here was such a strong natural rallying effect early on, I don鈥檛 think we should be surprised by a slight diminution in support as the war goes on. There will be ebb and flow,鈥� says Peter Feaver, director of Duke University鈥檚 Program in American Grand Strategy and a former official on President George W. Bush鈥檚 National Security Council.

鈥淏ut the way support for Ukraine has remained strong despite some emerging factors鈥� like inflation and higher energy costs 鈥渢ells me we aren鈥檛 going to see a collapse,鈥� he adds.

Indeed, a survey last month from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows nearly three-quarters of Americans supporting continued military and economic aid to Ukraine 鈥� with 58% choosing to provide that aid 鈥渁s long as it takes,鈥� even if it means paying higher prices for gas and food.

But what the survey also reveals is a deep division among Republicans: While 50% favor supporting Ukraine 鈥渁s long as it takes,鈥� another 46% prefer urging Ukraine to 鈥渟ettle for peace as soon as possible so that costs aren鈥檛 so great for American households.鈥� (Among Democrats the split is 70-30.)

It鈥檚 that split among Republicans that many in Washington are keeping an eye on.

In next week鈥檚 midterm elections, the number of Republican members of Congress siding with the 鈥渟ettle for peace to lower costs鈥� minority is likely to grow, Professor Feaver says.

鈥淏arring some shock on the battlefield that profoundly changes current trends, the next Congress is going to be less supportive of Ukraine than the current one,鈥� he says, pointing to the loss of a number of 鈥渘ational security types鈥� (he cites Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney) and the likely addition of more domestic-focused Republicans from the party鈥檚 鈥淎merica First鈥� wing.

Indeed, it is the prospect of a Congress next year that is less supportive of Ukraine, and more focused on China than on Russia as America鈥檚 primary adversary, that reportedly has the Biden administration and a bipartisan group in Congress working on a large Ukraine aid bill 鈥� as much as $50 billion 鈥� to be taken up in the post-election lame-duck session.

鈥淕etting one big aid package passed seems like a pretty smart move, in part because as we see in our survey, support for Ukraine remains so high,鈥� says Dina Smeltz, senior fellow in public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council.

鈥淏ut that split among Republicans is also real,鈥� she adds, 鈥渁nd when you combine that with the fact that a lot of the Republican candidates [for Congress] are of the Trump-leaning, less internationalist line of thought, it would seem to strengthen the argument for acting before seeing how things play out next year.鈥�

When to negotiate?

The outcry that accompanied the progressive Democrats鈥� 鈥済ive peace a chance鈥� letter scalded not just the members of Congress who signed it, but foreign policy experts and officials who for months have been calling for a diplomatic channel with Russia.

Detractors say now is not the time for diplomacy, especially in light of Ukraine鈥檚 advances on the battlefield and the growing sense (also reflected in public opinion surveys) that Ukraine could win 鈥� meaning it could succeed in pushing Russia out of Ukrainian territory it now occupies.

Some experts argue that negotiating now with Mr. Putin would be tantamount to condemning millions of Ukrainians to living under Russian occupation.

On the other hand, proponents of diplomacy say that both Americans and Ukrainians have to consider the possibility that another year of war, with the accompanying death and destruction, won鈥檛 alter current battlefield positions much 鈥� or might even lead to a reversal of Ukraine鈥檚 fortunes.

Moreover, some say that even if Mr. Putin is pushed out of Ukraine, he could still continue a devastating air war, one that even now has impeded the delivery of electricity and water to millions of Ukrainians. And if he feels cornered, he might follow through on threats to use nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction 鈥� a horror some say would make the price of negotiations seem paltry by comparison.

No one would win that war. And nothing would shift public opinion faster, some add, than a sense that supporting Ukraine was a lost cause or had made America鈥檚 European allies more vulnerable and less safe by leading to nuclear warfare.

鈥淭he more Americans see Ukraine winning, the stronger their support will be and the longer it will remain strong,鈥� says the Chicago Council鈥檚 Ms. Smeltz. 鈥淏ut the longer the war drags on, and especially if our side is not seen as winning, we certainly could see public opinion bottom out.鈥�