海角大神

When it comes to prospects for restarting talks with Tehran aimed at restoring the tattered 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the tone in Washington this week has been decidedly downbeat.

鈥淲ith every passing day and Iran鈥檚 refusal to engage in good faith, the runway gets short,鈥� Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday as he met in Washington with foreign ministers from Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

The top U.S. diplomat then delved into a little saber-rattling. 鈥淲e are prepared to turn to other options if Iran doesn鈥檛 change course鈥� 鈥� meaning if Iran doesn鈥檛 put a halt to continuing advances in its nuclear program and get back to the negotiating table.

But beneath the public pessimism and tough talk are a number of economic and regional political factors that suggest a resumption of diplomacy between two arch adversaries 鈥� and revival of the 2015 international agreement that temporarily closed Iran鈥檚 pathway to a nuclear weapon 鈥� is still more likely than not.

Those factors include big-ticket pressures like Iran鈥檚 need for relief from U.S.-imposed economic sanctions and President Joe Biden鈥檚 hopes of avoiding a nuclear crisis that could overtake his domestic agenda.

A range of factors

But other, more subtle factors favoring diplomacy include Iran鈥檚 growing relations with two big regional powers 鈥� Russia and China; Iran鈥檚 fraught but budding relations with its Persian Gulf neighbors, including Saudi Arabia; and Israel鈥檚 less strident opposition to a U.S. return to a deal former President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018.

Even the spike in global energy costs is contributing to mounting pressure on Iran to return to indirect talks with the United States on restoring the nuclear accord, some analysts argue.

How do oil prices fit into a list of glimmers favoring diplomacy?

Consider this: China, one of six powers that signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, with Iran, finds its economy hampered by energy shortages and rising prices. Beijing would welcome the eased access to Iran鈥檚 oil that would accompany a revived deal.

At the same time, oil-producer Iran 鈥� its economy stuck in the doldrums despite recent modest growth 鈥� would very much like to reap the benefits from the rising prices that a return to licit oil sales would offer, some international analysts say.

And as Tehran鈥檚 recent accession to membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation suggests, the Iranians have been putting more of their economic eggs into the China basket and are aiming for bilateral economic ties to flourish.

The alternative serves no one

Yet even with all those factors contributing, the key driver of a return to talks is going to be a decision from the two main protagonists 鈥� the U.S. and especially Iran 鈥� that the alternative to dialogue serves no one.

鈥淭he bottom line is that restoring the deal serves the best interests of both Iran and the United States,鈥� says Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington.

鈥淚f the talks to restore the JCPOA fail, the likelihood of a nuclear crisis, the likelihood of a return to a coercive sanctions strategy, the likelihood of military strikes, all of it goes up,鈥� she adds. 鈥淏ut those likelihoods don鈥檛 benefit [Iranian President Ebrahim] Raisi, and they don鈥檛 benefit Biden.鈥�

President Biden entered the White House pledging to restore the JCPOA, and earlier this year it appeared that a U.S. return to the deal 鈥� and returning Iran to compliance with the deal鈥檚 nuclear limitations 鈥� was imminent. (Once the U.S. pulled out in 2018, Iran questioned the deal鈥檚 validity and eventually returned to prohibited activities. Those include spinning increasingly sophisticated centrifuges delivering a higher purity of highly enriched uranium, a key step on the road to building a nuclear weapon).

But the sixth round of talks ended in April without an agreement, and then the hard-liner Mr. Raisi was elected president in June.

Speculation over a return to Vienna for a seventh round of talks has since followed the path of a roller coaster, with sudden ascents of optimism followed by chutes of despair.

The last two weeks are a case in point. Last week Iran鈥檚 new foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said in Moscow that Iran was finalizing diplomatic consultations and 鈥渨ill soon restore our negotiations in Vienna.鈥� But that was followed this week by plummeting hopes and warnings from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, then Secretary Blinken, that the diplomatic window is closing.

U.S. actions vs. words

For some U.S.-Iran analysts, the Biden administration has largely itself to blame for the stalled diplomacy and the failure to coax Iran back to the Vienna table, since the U.S. has never backed up its warnings with any actions.

鈥淭he Americans keep talking about how hopes for diplomacy are growing dim, opportunities are diminishing, a window is shutting, but ultimately their rhetoric doesn鈥檛 sync with their behavior, and what their behavior says is that they really are trying very hard to keep the door open,鈥� says Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow specializing in Iranian security and political issues at Washington鈥檚 Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

In response, he adds, Iran鈥檚 new class of hard-liners is finding a 鈥渃ertain glee鈥� in 鈥渢urning the superpower into the supplicant鈥� and 鈥渢rying to tempt Washington into premature sanctions relief.鈥� Those in power in Tehran now are 鈥渕ore risk tolerant and escalation friendly, and more keen to drive a harder bargain.鈥�

This does not mean Tehran won鈥檛 eventually return to the Vienna talks and even the JCPOA, Mr. Ben Taleblu says. But he says Iran is demonstrating the objective it intends to pursue if it does return to the negotiating table: 鈥淕et more but offer less.鈥�

Still, not all Iranians are on board with the Raisi government鈥檚 maximalist approach to nuclear diplomacy.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who was former Secretary of State John Kerry鈥檚 Iranian counterpart in negotiating the JCPOA, said in a public online chat last week that Iran had an 鈥渙pportunity鈥� to return to the deal 鈥渨hile keeping its dignity intact,鈥� according to the Amwaj.media website.

Mr. Zarif also quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin telling him that, 鈥淚f, when the U.S. declares that it wishes to return to the JCPOA, Iran takes a hard line, then the whole world will turn against鈥� Iran 鈥� something Mr. Putin added was already happening.

Iran鈥檚 鈥淓astern orientation鈥�

The role of Russia and China in getting Tehran to 鈥測es鈥� may be crucial. Mr. Ben Taleblu notes that the Iranians have long talked about an 鈥淓astern orientation鈥� of their foreign policy as a way to offset Western influence. And while that reorientation may be a long-term goal, he says it points to where Iran is headed 鈥� and suggests that Tehran may prefer not to alienate either Moscow or Beijing by precipitating a regional crisis.

鈥淧olitically Moscow matters to Iran, but economically Beijing matters much more, and the Iranians can鈥檛 easily disregard that right now鈥� given their weak economy, he says.

Ms. Davenport of the Arms Control Association adds that even if China is unwilling to exert Moscow鈥檚 style of overt pressure on Tehran, Beijing clearly prefers a return of the JCPOA.

鈥淭he greater access to the Iranian oil market that would accompany a deal would clearly benefit China in a variety of ways,鈥� she says, adding that 鈥渇rom the big-picture perspective, Chinese interests suffer if there鈥檚 an escalation of tensions and conflict in the region.鈥�

Just how much that kind of external factor matters to Tehran remains to be seen.

For Mr. Ben Taleblu, the U.S. needs to move beyond rhetoric and show some teeth if it wants to get Iran back to Vienna. And he鈥檚 not alone in thinking something has to happen soon.

For now, Ms. Davenport says she sees Iran鈥檚 nuclear advances as aimed primarily at 鈥渋ncreasing Iran鈥檚 leverage鈥� in eventual talks. But she worries that some of the advances Iran is making are getting to a point of no return.

鈥淢y concern is that the advances Iran is making will become more difficult to reverse over the next few months,鈥� she says. And if over that period Iran鈥檚 hard-liners continue to play hard to get and meet the Americans with new demands, she says, 鈥渢hat delay could be fatal.鈥�

Staff writer Scott Peterson in London contributed to this report.