From China to cyber, has Biden agenda reinvigorated NATO?
President Biden鈥檚 approach has helped inject a renewed sense of purpose into the NATO alliance. But could its focus become too diffuse?
President Biden鈥檚 approach has helped inject a renewed sense of purpose into the NATO alliance. But could its focus become too diffuse?
Atmospherics and style are not everything.
But in bringing his commitment to America鈥檚 alliances to the NATO summit Monday, along with his conviction that democracies are best suited to meet the 21st century鈥檚 stiff challenges, President Joe Biden went a good way toward answering a question hanging over the North Atlantic alliance since the end of the Cold War: What are you good for?
Former President Donald Trump had even suggested the defense alliance of Western allies was 鈥渙bsolete,鈥 leaving NATO officials and U.S. allies to worry Mr. Trump could pull the plug at any moment.
But now, as NATO ends its Afghanistan mission in September, the transatlantic alliance of 30 democracies is deriving renewed purpose from new challenges: an aggressive Russia on the alliance鈥檚 eastern flank, instability around the Mediterranean region, a rising China with ever-advancing global technological capabilities, and 21st-century threats including cybersecurity and faltering democratic governance.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no question that the atmosphere of this summit is very positive and marks a shift very much appreciated in Europe,鈥 says Ian Lesser, executive director of the German Marshall Fund鈥檚 Brussels office. 鈥淭he shift on display is one of style, but there is substance to the change as well.鈥
Noting in particular President Biden鈥檚 emphasis on 鈥渟trong alliances and democracy鈥檚 utility,鈥 he adds, 鈥淭he truth is that the American commitment to Europe has grown in many ways over recent years, so put these things together and a lot of the anxieties that were growing within NATO are now allayed.鈥
The new tone Mr. Biden seeks to set was made clear by the flagpole at the U.S. ambassador鈥檚 residence, where the president is staying while in Brussels 鈥 below the Stars and Stripes flew the rainbow flag, marking Pride Month. Mr. Trump鈥檚 State Department had banned U.S. facilities overseas from displaying the symbol of LGBTQ pride.
But Mr. Biden鈥檚 first NATO summit went well beyond symbolism.
Actions Monday ranged from specific details of the U.S.-NATO partners鈥 鈥渋n together, out together鈥 drawdown from Afghanistan 鈥 including plans for post-exit embassy security 鈥 to approval of a new cyber defense strategy updating the 鈥渄efense, security, and intelligence dimensions of cyber across the alliance,鈥 according to White House officials.
Notably, the summit communiqu茅 will for the first time make significant cyberattacks a criterion for invoking Article 5 of the NATO charter 鈥 meaning a cyberattack damaging聽critical infrastructure in one NATO member could be considered an attack on the alliance and entail collective action.
鈥淲e knew from the White House that Biden was bringing on this European trip the three C鈥檚 鈥 China, COVID, and climate change 鈥 but this NATO summit adds a fourth, which is cyber,鈥 says Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.
NATO has increasingly moved into new areas of interest in recent years, including emerging and disruptive technologies, 鈥渞esilience鈥 鈥 meaning safeguarding infrastructure and supply chains from a widening array of challenges 鈥 and an expanding list of out-of-area partnerships, including in the Indo-Pacific region.
Moreover, leaders launched a process for delivering a new strategic concept for NATO, to be completed by next year鈥檚 summit in Madrid. U.S. officials note that the current strategic concept, completed in 2010, refers to Russia as a 鈥渃onstructive partner鈥 and does not mention China.
Indeed, Mr. Biden had some of his alliance colleagues shifting in their seats as he laid out for them what the United States sees as the growing challenges China poses. Those range from provocative actions in the South China Sea and vital world trade routes to increasingly sophisticated technological and military capabilities.
Another focus is the array of political challenges that an authoritarian China poses to what the president likes to refer to as 鈥渁n alliance of democracies.鈥
Yet even though a number of NATO members 鈥 most outspokenly France 鈥 remain wary of being drawn into a more confrontational stance with China, the summit鈥檚 communiqu茅 鈥渇eatures China in a more robust way than we鈥檝e ever seen before,鈥 as one senior White House official said. Indeed, in the third paragraph on 鈥渢hreats鈥 鈥 right after mention of 鈥淩ussia鈥檚 aggressive actions鈥 鈥 comes China.
鈥淐hina鈥檚 growing influence and international policies can present challenges that we need to address together as an Alliance.聽We will engage China with a view to defending the security interests of the Alliance.鈥
Still, just how NATO approaches the China challenge will remain a work in progress.
The same head winds that buffeted Mr. Biden at NATO Monday were present over the weekend as he pressed his Group of Seven colleagues assembled in England to challenge China more directly.
At the G-7 Cornwall summit, the U.S. had wanted the final communiqu茅 to call out China directly for a number of transgressions, including forced labor practices and other human rights abuses. But a heated discussion among leaders revealed strong resistance to a barrage of direct finger-pointing that would have suggested a G-7 buy-in on a confrontational approach to China.
So while the G-7 final communiqu茅 does cite China by name in its 49th paragraph (out of 70) for human rights violations in Xinjiang province and for undermining Hong Kong鈥檚 democracy, the document offers only a general concern about 鈥渢he use of all forms of forced labour in global supply chains, including state-sponsored forced labour of vulnerable groups and minorities including in the agricultural, solar, and garment sectors.鈥
White House officials insisted they were satisfied with the wording on forced labor practices and the clear reference it makes to China, given global awareness of the forced labor that China鈥檚 Uyghur Muslim minority is subjected to in the mentioned sectors in Xinjiang province.
The upbeat mood and renewed sense of purpose permeating Monday鈥檚 summit seemed to banish the doubts that marked recent NATO gatherings. But at the same time, an expanded to-do list has some experts worried that a focus on answering the post-Cold War 鈥減urpose鈥 question could put the alliance at risk of losing its focus on its core strengths.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not so much a question now of NATO鈥檚 relevance, but of NATO being drawn in too many directions,鈥 says Ms. Kendall-Taylor, who served as deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia in the National Intelligence Council.
鈥淚t鈥檚 still first and foremost a collective defense structure, and especially with the sustained challenges Russia poses, I think some members in particular want to be sure the focus remains on that.鈥
Mr. Biden appeared to acknowledge those concerns Monday by briefing his colleagues on his aims for the much-anticipated summit he鈥檒l hold with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva Wednesday.
He also met separately with the leaders of the three Baltic states 鈥 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania 鈥 and pointedly had a brief conversation on the summit sidelines with Polish President Andrzej Duda, all part of his messaging to Mr. Putin about the American commitment to NATO鈥檚 eastern flank.
The three Baltic states and former Soviet republics have felt most acutely the revanchist military actions of Mr. Putin鈥檚 Russia, including in neighboring Ukraine and in Georgia.
But it was at another bilateral meeting, the one Mr. Biden held with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, in which the president sought to underscore his conception of NATO as an 鈥渁lliance of democracies鈥 with a critical role to play in stemming a rising global authoritarian tide.
Mr. Biden wanted to finalize plans for Turkey to provide security for the Kabul airport after NATO鈥檚 departure, air the prickly topic of U.S.-Turkish differences over security in northern Syria, and discuss Turkey鈥檚 complex relations with Russia before Wednesday鈥檚 summit.
But perhaps the strongest reason Mr. Biden granted Mr. Erdo臒an a high-profile sit-down was to secure Turkey鈥檚 slipping anchor in the 鈥渁lliance of democracies,鈥 some analysts say.
鈥淭he Biden administration鈥檚 policy towards Mr. Erdo臒an is to keep Turkey in NATO and democracy in Turkey vibrant while Erdo臒an is on the scene,鈥 says Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The Biden White House 鈥渉as digested the fact that Erdo臒an鈥檚 Turkey is in deep with Putin,鈥 he says. But, he notes, 鈥淭urkey and Russia are not allies, their relations are complex, with cooperation and deep disagreements鈥 鈥 and the U.S. wants to stem any tendency for those relations to get any closer.
Yet while U.S. worries about Turkey鈥檚 drift are not new, what is new here is Mr. Biden鈥檚 willingness to directly address democratic backsliding in a key regional ally.
鈥淚n the past U.S. presidents paid symbolic lip service to democracy and freedoms in Turkey, but this time is different,鈥 says Mr. Cagaptay, author of the just-published 鈥淎 Sultan in Autumn,鈥 about Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 rise and recent decline as leader.
Mr. Biden needs to address 鈥渄emocratic transgressions鈥 among America鈥檚 partners if his vision of democracies effectively addressing the 21st century鈥檚 biggest challenges is to be believed at home and abroad, Mr. Cagaptay says.
And Mr. Erdo臒an, in dire need of the U.S. president鈥檚 imprimatur to jump-start American and other foreign investment in Turkey and to revive a moribund economy, he adds, is at least willing to listen if that鈥檚 the price for getting a photo with Mr. Biden.