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In Europe, a stern test for Biden vow that 鈥楢merica is back鈥

When President Biden says the U.S. is recommitted to its leadership role, should Europe believe him? Or has America 鈥 and the world 鈥 changed?

By Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer
Brussels

From a starting point in Cornwall, England, President Joe Biden today launches his weeklong European tour to rally democratic allies with a rousing pledge that America is back, and ready to lead efforts to address pressing global issues 鈥 from pandemic recovery to climate change.

Yet as Mr. Biden moves over the coming days from England to Brussels and on to Geneva 鈥 meeting with most of America鈥檚 closest allies at an extraordinary sequence of summits and side meetings 鈥 he can expect some wariness mixed in with the overall enthusiasm.

Think of it, say transatlantic relations analysts and some European diplomats, as when the top dog in a group of best friends drops out to do his own thing, only to return one day to reclaim his old role at the head of the group.

Everybody鈥檚 happy the leader is back, but there are also new questions and doubts: How long till the leader goes his own way again? How has he changed 鈥 and will he accept that his friends have also changed in his absence?

鈥淭he Europeans are not just relieved but are enthusiastic about the message President Biden brings in the context of this trip, with his rhetoric of renewed ties and recommitment to American leadership. They were feeling very lonely ... defending the international system without their close American friend,鈥 says Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe in Brussels.

Europeans will be reassured by a U.S. president speaking a familiar language of transatlantic unity and American leadership after four years of tensions and 鈥淎merica First鈥 under Donald Trump, she says.

鈥淏ut there is also strong concern in Europe that we haven鈥檛 seen the end of Trump and Trumpism, that the Republican Party seems to be captured by the Trumpist wing and could shift America鈥檚 global outlook again in a few years,鈥 she adds. 鈥淪o what Europeans want to see now are some decisions, something concrete that confirms a renewed determination to work together.鈥

鈥淎rsenal of vaccines鈥

Suggesting the White House fully understands a need to put some meat on the bones of presidential rhetoric, Mr. Biden announced Thursday a 鈥渉istoric鈥 donation of half a billion vaccines to the world鈥檚 poorest and less-developed countries over the next two years. The vaccines are part of a U.S.-led effort among the world鈥檚 wealthiest democracies to demonstrate an ability to meet urgent global needs.

鈥淲hen [Americans] have the capacity, then we have the will, and we step up and we deliver,鈥 Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden鈥檚 national security adviser, told reporters Thursday. 鈥淎s [the president] said ... we were the arsenal of democracy in World War II, and we鈥檙e going to be the arsenal of vaccines ... to end this pandemic.鈥

Yet others say that without an honest reckoning among friends of how their relationship has changed and what each side now expects from it, Mr. Biden鈥檚 trip could end in disappointment.

鈥淲hile there may be a strong desire for it, I would hope we don鈥檛 just get a good-news show with a 鈥榳e are all united鈥 theme and a masking of the differences that exist on the big issues we face,鈥 says Sven Biscop, director of the Europe in the World Program at the Egmont Royal Institute for International Studies in Brussels.

鈥淚鈥檇 rather see what you might expect from a strong friendship,鈥 he adds, 鈥渓ike frank discussions that lay bare the differences but also remind everyone what was behind the friendship in the first place. After four-plus years of moving apart,鈥 he says, 鈥渢he U.S. and Europe need that honesty to lay the groundwork for making tough decisions.鈥

The Biden trip鈥檚 鈥渢hree C鈥檚鈥

There will be no lack of opportunities for such conversations on a trip the White House says will be dominated by 鈥渢hree C鈥檚鈥: COVID-19, China, and climate change.

In Cornwall, Mr. Biden attends a summit of the Group of Seven advanced economies 鈥 the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The group aims to regain some of its lost luster and relevance by addressing issues from the post-pandemic economic recovery and inequality to global economic governance 鈥 and by inviting the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and India, to underscore the group鈥檚 foundation in democratic governance and the global economic shift to Asia.

On Monday Mr. Biden moves on to NATO headquarters in Brussels. There he鈥檒l join leaders from the 30-member transatlantic alliance as it shifts focus from its Afghanistan mission, which ends in September, to renewed in-area threats from Russia and 21st-century threats including cybersecurity and space-based technologies.

In the vein of 鈥渢ough talk with problematic allies,鈥 Mr. Biden will make time while at NATO to sit down with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an. The Turkish leader鈥檚 democratic backsliding and mounting human rights violations present a challenge to a U.S. president who has pledged to make both democracy and human rights key elements of his foreign policy.

On Tuesday in Brussels, the U.S. president sits down with the two top executives of the European Union 鈥 the first U.S.-EU summit since 2014. For European analysts, the EU summit will be the best venue for Mr. Biden to address the China pillar of his trip. China poses a dilemma for Europe, because while it is now the Europeans鈥 largest trade partner, China鈥檚 human rights violations, anti-democratic moves against Hong Kong, and coercive trade practices against Australia and others have soured European parliamentarians and publics on the relationship.

Old think, new think

Attention then shifts to Geneva, for what some analysts are calling the trip鈥檚 鈥渕ain event鈥: Mr. Biden鈥檚 summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

White House officials speaking in the run-up to the president鈥檚 first overseas foray said it was no accident 鈥 nor mere scheduling practicality 鈥 that Mr. Biden will be setting the stage for what is expected to be a tough meeting with Mr. Putin by first very publicly renewing ties with America鈥檚 constellation of democratic allies.

Still, some transatlantic analysts caution that as important as 鈥渞enewing ties with allies鈥 may sound, what matters most is the vision for renewed alliances and American leadership 鈥 and whether it is based on a U.S.-dominated world that doesn鈥檛 exist anymore, or fits a multipolar world with very different challenges.

鈥淎ll this talk of 鈥楢merica is back鈥 is nonsense. It would be much more comforting if there was greater recognition that the world has changed and there will be no going back to a long-ago golden age鈥 of American leadership, says Michael Desch, director of the Notre Dame International Security Center in Indiana.

鈥淏ut the rhetoric of Joe鈥檚 excellent European adventure doesn鈥檛 show much evidence of really grasping that change,鈥 he adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a lot of old think, very little new think.鈥

Differences over China

Another problem for Mr. Biden, Mr. Desch and others say, is that while there may be wide agreement among Western allies on the need for action on climate change and looming post-pandemic global inequalities, on two other Biden priorities 鈥 a rising China and threats to democratic governance 鈥 there is little unity on the way forward.

鈥淔or the U.S., its approach to China is about defending its superpower status and pushing back on China鈥檚 rise. But for its part, the EU has no superpower status to defend, so with China it鈥檚 much more about navigating the reality of a rising China,鈥 says Carnegie鈥檚 Ms. Balfour. 鈥淭he Europeans prefer dialogue and ambiguity to U.S.-style confrontation.鈥

That said, there are mounting signs of Europe moving closer to the U.S. on China. The EU has put on hold an investment deal with China in the wake of tit-for-tat sanctions over human rights violations in China鈥檚 Xinjiang province. And recently, both Italy and Lithuania nixed infrastructure deals they had reached with China.

Still, simply drawing closer on what they oppose won鈥檛 be enough for the U.S. and its European allies to demonstrate the enduring relevance of their friendship to their own citizens as well as to the world, Ms. Balfour says.

鈥淔rom a global perspective, what we need to see coming out of this trip is a real social contract, a very proactive and concrete commitment to addressing the heightening global inequality that has come out of the pandemic,鈥 she says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the kind of thing that can be the core of a West that is willing to become inclusive and take greater responsibility in addressing global crises.鈥