海角大神

Preparing the lifeguard station from which he watches over sea bathers in Taiwan鈥檚 Kenting National Park, Su Chenzhe takes a moment to reflect on events in Hong Kong, some 400 miles away across the Taiwan Strait.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 want today鈥檚 Hong Kong to be tomorrow鈥檚 Taiwan,鈥� the young man with a swimmer鈥檚 build says one morning as he surveys the waves breaking at his beach in southernmost Pingtung County. 鈥淚 want Taiwan to be a free, democratic country.鈥�

Mr. Su鈥檚 words echo the conversations and slogans one hears increasingly across a fervently democratic Taiwan 鈥� and especially in the pro-Hong Kong bookshops and coffeehouses of the capital, Taipei 鈥� as mainland China steps up actions weakening Hong Kong鈥檚 semi-autonomous status and democratic political system.

Like Hong Kong, Taiwan in the eyes of China鈥檚 Communist Party government is a province 鈥� governed separately for now but ultimately to be fully united with the mainland under Communist rule, by force if necessary. Beijing vows to take over Taiwan, invoking the same 鈥渙ne country, two systems鈥� formula of Hong Kong policy 鈥� a plan rejected, say polls, by more than 85% of Taiwan鈥檚 23 million people.

And it is this stance from the increasingly aggressive authorities in Beijing that has many Taiwanese keeping a sharp eye on events in Hong Kong, attending boisterous pro-Hong Kong marches, and invoking cautionary slogans like 鈥淭oday鈥檚 Hong Kong, tomorrow鈥檚 Taiwan!鈥�

No one anticipates any steps threatening Taiwan鈥檚 autonomy on the order of the mainland鈥檚 tightening grip on Hong Kong any time soon. Beijing would seem to have its hands full managing events in Hong Kong and other restive regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, economic fallout from the coronavirus, the U.S.-China trade spat,聽and steering China鈥檚 rise to dominance in a dynamic Asia.

Moreover, Taiwan鈥檚 relations with the United States have strengthened under President Donald Trump, and the island鈥檚 president, Tsai Ing-wen, has played her limited cards adeptly, foreign policy experts say. She has recently showcased the advantages of handling the coronavirus crisis with transparency (as opposed to the mainland) and clarity at home. And, they say, she has deftly inserted Taiwan into the collection of democracies, starting with the U.S., that have condemned China鈥檚 attacks on Hong Kong鈥檚 democratic system and its status as a semi-autonomous entity.

Risk of miscalculation

What does worry some experts in Asian security issues, however, is that China might misjudge the U.S., seeing it as weak and distracted with multiple crises and thus unlikely to respond to Chinese provocations. Others wonder if a mercurial American president might be tempted to take dramatic steps concerning Taiwan to put fresh meat on the bones of his increasingly anti-China stance in the run-up to November elections.

鈥淭he U.S. now has three crises 鈥� in public health, in the economy, and the political crisis playing out on the streets 鈥� and so what I鈥檓 arguing is that the [Chinese Communist Party] might think that U.S. leadership and America鈥檚 strengths are weakened, and that could lead to some dangerous miscalculations,鈥� says Shirley Kan, an independent specialist in Asian security affairs and former analyst at the Congressional Research Service.

鈥淏ut China should not make that mistake,鈥� she adds, noting that if anything, Taiwan鈥檚 position in what she calls the 鈥渃oalition of democracies鈥� standing up to China over Hong Kong is stronger than ever.

Other experts underscore Mr. Trump鈥檚 penchant for dramatic foreign policy actions 鈥� meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel鈥檚 capital and moving the U.S. Embassy there 鈥� and posit that he could choose Taiwan as a way of dramatizing his newfound toughness on China.

鈥淚magine a major incident in the South China Sea,鈥� where China has been stepping up its fighter jet reconnaissance flights in Taiwan鈥檚 airspace, 鈥渁nd I wouldn鈥檛 be surprised to see any of a number of dramatic steps in response, like rushing through more sophisticated arms sales to Taipei or even inviting President Tsai to the White House,鈥� says Harry Kazianis, an expert in U.S.-China relations and East Asian security at the Center for the National Interest in Washington. 鈥淏asically, it would be the U.S. recognizing Taiwan as a separate entity鈥� from China.

Taiwan鈥檚 public overwhelmingly supports closer economic and political ties with the U.S., while rating the U.S. more favorably than mainland China by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, according to a May poll by the Pew Research Center.

鈥淭here is no doubt Taiwan will get closer to the U.S. and further away鈥� from the People鈥檚 Republic of China (PRC), says Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, a political science professor at Sam Houston State University in Huntsville, Texas.

For many analysts, it was China鈥檚 aggression, heightened by its tightening grip on Hong Kong, that led to President Tsai鈥檚 landslide reelection victory in January. Her Democratic Progressive Party considers Taiwan an independent country, though Ms. Tsai is careful not to enflame the independence-unification debate.

Ms. Tsai is 鈥渁 stable hand at the tiller. She does not create surprises for anyone,鈥� says Kharis Templeman, an adviser on the Hoover Institution Project on Taiwan.

But to understand Beijing鈥檚 pressure on both Hong Kong and Taiwan, it鈥檚 important to consider Communist Party leaders鈥� concerns about discontent at home, some Asia experts say.

鈥淭he Chinese Communist Party is now experiencing some domestic internal pressure,鈥� in part over its handling of the coronavirus, says Dr. Weng, who is also a research fellow at National Chengchi University in Taiwan. 鈥淭here are a lot of complaints,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hey have to show the people ... they are strong enough to take over Hong Kong.鈥�

Pressure tactics

In recent months, Beijing has adopted a similar toughened posture toward Taiwan, escalating military patrols around the island, which lies just 80 miles off the coast of mainland China, while waging a constant barrage of cyberattacks and disinformation.

Beijing has become 鈥渆ven more aggressive in military threats, [diplomatically] poaching Taiwan鈥檚 allies, preventing Taiwan from participating in international organizations,鈥� says Ketty W. Chen, vice president of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy in Taipei. Beijing, for example, has barred Taiwan from participation in the World Health Organization, even though Taiwan has been on the front line of the coronavirus pandemic.

But if anything, this approach has backfired, says Dr. Chen. 鈥淭he PRC government and President Xi [Jinping] have painted themselves into a corner and have to treat Taiwan harshly,鈥� she adds, 鈥渂ut then what to do after that?鈥�

Meanwhile, China鈥檚 pressure tactics are wearing thin, say Taiwanese interviewed across the island.

鈥淐hina wants to unite with us, but they are constantly attacking us!鈥� says Jojo Lin, a recent college graduate and one of the record number of voters who cast their ballot for Ms. Tsai.

In her inauguration address in May, Ms. Tsai took her trademark balanced approach, calling for peace and stability and urging both sides to 鈥渇ind a way to coexist over the long term.鈥� But she confirmed Taiwan鈥檚 opposition to Beijing鈥檚 reunification policy: 鈥淲e will not accept the Beijing authorities鈥� use of 鈥榦ne country, two systems,鈥欌�� she said, 鈥渢o dwarf Taiwan and destroy the cross-strait status quo.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 cool to be pro-Taiwan again鈥�

With both Beijing鈥檚 aggression and her public鈥檚 regard for the U.S. on the rise, Ms. Tsai is likely to continue highlighting her strong relations with Washington. At the same time, it may not be in her interest to see Taiwan become a pawn in what the National Interest鈥檚 Mr. Kazianis calls a 鈥渞hetorical cold war鈥� between the two superpowers.

Last week Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement blasting the Communist Party for its 鈥渙bscene propaganda鈥� about U.S. street protests even as China represses individual freedoms. 鈥淲hen people 鈥� such as those in Hong Kong and聽Taiwan聽鈥� with common roots in an awe-inspiring civilization 鈥� embrace freedom, that freedom is crushed, and the people subordinated to Party dictates and demands.鈥�

That their freedom has been 鈥渃rushed鈥� might be news to the Taiwanese. But being mentioned in the same breath as Hong Kong is also reassurance that Taiwan鈥檚 standing in Washington, long secondary to relations with Beijing, is now on stronger footing.

鈥淪uddenly it鈥檚 cool to be pro-Taiwan again in U.S. foreign policy circles,鈥� says Mr. Kazianis. 鈥淲hat it amounts to is a de facto recognition of Taiwan鈥檚 existence as a separate entity鈥� from mainland China.

Still, many experts caution that Taiwan must remain 鈥渞ealistic,鈥� as Ms. Kan says, and understand that even an increasingly anti-China U.S. will have to carefully tend its relations with Asia鈥檚 rising superpower, the world鈥檚 second-largest economy.

鈥淢uch more than in the past, Taiwan enjoys bipartisan support in Washington, especially in the Congress, and is viewed as one of the partners in a free and open Indo-Pacific,鈥� says Ms. Kan. 鈥淭hat said, I see no paradigm shift鈥� in the triangle of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.聽聽

Ann Scott Tyson鈥檚 reporting included some from Taiwan.