海角大神

Once Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaid贸 declared himself the country鈥檚 legitimate president last week, he set a clock ticking.

The longer Venezuela鈥檚 embattled leftist President Nicol谩s Maduro is able to defy the clock and retain his office, regional experts say, the better his chances of fending off this latest challenge and clinging to power.

Everyone involved in the crisis appears to recognize this.

Mr. Guaid贸, who just a few weeks ago was not widely known even in his own country, knows time is of the essence and is calling for massive national demonstrations Wednesday, and especially Saturday, to keep building public pressure on Mr. Maduro to step down.

Maduro himself appears to understand the ticking clock, having taken steps to help him weather the storm: domestically to bolster his support within the military and internationally among his regime鈥檚 friends, like Russia and China.

And the United States is recognizing that it may be now or never to topple Maduro and avoid the long-term installation of another Cuba in the hemisphere. To address Venezuela鈥檚 steady slide into economic crisis and authoritarian rule, it is taking steps it had until now stopped short of.

On Monday the Trump administration announced sanctions on Venezuela鈥檚 state-owned oil company Petr贸leos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, in an effort to cut off the flow of oil income that has kept Maduro鈥檚 government afloat. The US had already imposed sanctions on the top tier of the country鈥檚 civilian and military leadership 鈥� including Maduro 鈥� but had until now remained PDVSA鈥檚 top cash-paying customer.

Having already recognized Guaid贸 on Wednesday as Venezuela鈥檚 interim president, the US took the next big step with oil sanctions in what appears to be a well-orchestrated hemispheric campaign to force Maduro from office.

And just in case Maduro wasn鈥檛 getting the hint, President Trump鈥檚 national security adviser, John Bolton, appeared to resort to a bit of psy-op聽warfare Monday aimed at further rattling the beleaguered president and his entourage.

At the White House briefing with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announcing the oil sanctions, Mr. Bolton held a yellow legal pad with the words 鈥�5,000 troops to Colombia鈥� aimed outward and clearly legible to the assembled press.

Colombia shares a long border with Venezuela and has joined with the US and other regional powers from Canada to Brazil and Argentina in recognizing Guaid贸 and demanding Maduro鈥檚 departure.

Democratic-authoritarian face-off

The mounting domestic and international pressure might be almost impossible for another embattled leader to withstand. But an unusual convergence of factors, starting with the developing tug-of-war over Venezuela between the US and other Western democracies and rising authoritarian powers led by Russia, could mean that Maduro finds a way to hold on, some analysts say.

鈥淭hings really do feel different this time after so many years of crisis, Maduro鈥檚 legitimacy is being challenged now like never before,鈥� says Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas and a leading Latin America expert in Washington.

鈥淏ut now Venezuela is in the middle of an unprecedented face-off between the Western democracies and their Latin American allies and the non-democrats rallying to Maduro,鈥� Mr. Farnsworth says. If Russia and China and other 鈥渁uthoritarian countries push their engagement in ways that offset the US-led pressure,鈥� he adds, 鈥渋t could give Maduro the time he needs to consolidate his hold on power.鈥�

At an emergency United Nations Security Council session on Venezuela Saturday, the Western-authoritarian split was on full display. But the support for the Maduro regime from Security Council permanent members Russia and China could not help but 鈥渂oost Maduro鈥檚 international legitimacy,鈥� Farnsworth says.

Still, Farnsworth and others say it is doubtful either Russia or China will go to great lengths to prop up Maduro. China鈥檚 interest is largely in Venezuela鈥檚 oil, experts say, which Venezuela ships to China to pay down its large debt to Beijing.

Russia, on the other hand, 鈥渋s much more interested in driving the US into some sort of imbroglio in Venezuela,鈥� Farnsworth says, 鈥渨hich means the US will pay less attention to the places where Russia really does have core interests.鈥�

Courting the military

Yet as important as the international context may be, it鈥檚 still going to be the power struggle on the ground 鈥� and above all whether or not the military continues to stand by Maduro 鈥� that determines Venezuela鈥檚 path forward, most experts say.

鈥淭he US is clearly ratcheting up the economic pressure with these [oil] sanctions, but I still see the military as the key,鈥� says Brian Fonseca, director of the Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University in Miami. Indeed, turning the economic screws 鈥渋s designed to further isolate Venezuela economically, compelling the military and others to turn on the regime,鈥� he says.

But Professor Fonseca, an expert on Venezuela鈥檚 military, says the determining factor may not be so much the military鈥檚 top brass, which after many years of gifts and other corrupting influences seems beholden to Maduro, but the middle ranks.

鈥淪o far we haven鈥檛 seen much in the way of cracks in the military鈥檚 stand with Maduro,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut clearly everyone understands how the mid-ranking officers and the troops could make the difference here.鈥� He notes that Maduro has kept a steady flow of videos on social media showing him rallying the troops on bases across the country.

At the same time, delegations supporting Guaid贸 are also showing up at military bases, imploring the ranks to switch allegiances.

鈥淩egular people鈥� have been approaching soldiers in the streets with pamphlets explaining why the military should remain neutral in the political power struggle. Some have聽pledged 鈥渁mnesty鈥� for military officers in a post-Maduro scenario. These actions聽underscore the wide-ranging understanding of the military鈥檚 key role,聽Farnsworth says.

鈥淭he military remains the ultimate arbiter of who鈥檚 going to be in control,鈥� Farnsworth says. 鈥淐learly what Maduro lacks in legitimacy he retains in his ability to use force, while for Guaid贸 it鈥檚 the reverse. In that equation,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢he key becomes the extent to which the military remains loyal to Maduro.鈥�

Moreover, Fonseca says Maduro knows that Guaid贸鈥檚 legitimacy has a certain shelf life 鈥� which is why he says Maduro will do everything he can to hold on to power for the coming weeks.

What the constitution stipulates

Guaid贸鈥檚 legitimacy derives from the fact that as president of the National Assembly he was empowered by the Venezuelan constitution to declare himself interim president once the assembly determined Maduro鈥檚 second term, which began this month, was illegitimate.

But the constitution also stipulates that the interim president must set a new presidential election within the first 30 days of his mandate, Fonseca notes. 鈥淭he longer this power struggle drags on, the harder it becomes for Guaid贸 to retain that legitimacy,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd Maduro knows it.鈥�

That helps explain why Guaid贸 has moved quickly to bolster his standing with the international community and particularly with the US, without whose recognition he likely would have become just another opposition flash in the pan. Guaid贸 has coordinated with the Trump administration on the oil sanctions, and has named a charg茅 d鈥檃ffaires for Washington to replace the diplomats Maduro ordered home when he severed diplomatic ties.

Moreover, by calling for massive national demonstrations Saturday, Guaid贸 is linking his campaign to the international community. Saturday is also the deadline a group of European countries set for Maduro to either call new elections 鈥� or see key European powers join the US and recognize Guaid贸 as Venezuela鈥檚 legitimate president.

What worries some analysts is that the intensifying involvement of the international community in Venezuela and the developing tug-of-war between big-power factions will make it more difficult for Venezuelans to resolve the country鈥檚 crisis peacefully and by themselves.

鈥淭he two sides are being emboldened by outside forces to take increasingly provocative steps, and that鈥檚 leading to a brinksmanship that is the opposite of the dialogue that should be the only answer for resolving this crisis,鈥� says Miguel Tinker-Salas, a Venezuelan historian and professor of Latin American studies at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif.

Handbook for survival

In particular, Professor Tinker Salas says he worries that a now-or-never mindset in the Trump administration could lead the US to take extreme steps if Maduro appears to be holding onto power despite Guaid贸鈥檚 gambit.

鈥淏olton has suggested in the past that the administration could be looking for some 鈥榠ncident鈥� to justify taking the step to military action, but I would hate to see some 鈥榠ncident鈥� created for a pretext to intervention,鈥� he says. 鈥淯S interventions in Latin America and elsewhere have been disastrous for the country involved and for the US, and there鈥檚 no reason to think it would be different here.鈥�

Notwithstanding the note scrawled on Bolton鈥檚 legal pad, no one appears to be calling for military intervention at this point. (Asked to clarify Bolton鈥檚 note Tuesday, the White House simply said Mr. Trump has always said 鈥淎ll options are on the table,鈥� a standard phrase presidents use in such contexts.)

But some analysts say that as Maduro fights for his survival, he is taking cues from Cuba and how it withstood US pressure for six decades. And certainly the prospect of 鈥渓osing鈥� Venezuela during its watch could motivate the Trump administration to take further action.

鈥淚f you look at the steps Maduro has taken over recent years to consolidate his hold on power 鈥� allowing mass emigration to release pressures, organizing a scarcity of resources to ensure popular loyalty, integrating the military into the economic system to keep it loyal, and of course relentlessly building up the Americans or 鈥榊anquis鈥� as the Venezuelan people鈥檚 top enemy 鈥� you see it鈥檚 all out of Cuba鈥檚 handbook for survival,鈥� Fonseca says.

鈥淢aduro has benefited from that handbook so far,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd he knows that the longer this goes on, the better the chances of the regime鈥檚 survival.鈥�