海角大神

When President Trump sat down to his much-anticipated Buenos Aires dinner with Xi Jinping Saturday night, he praised the personal relationship he鈥檚 developed with the Chinese leader and predicted it would lead to good things for both countries.

鈥淭he relationship is very special 鈥� that I have with President Xi,鈥� Mr. Trump said, flanked by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and other senior aides, and seated directly across from a smiling Xi. Indeed, that special relationship was the 鈥減rimary reason,鈥� Trump added, that he expected the two of them would agree on something 鈥渢hat would be good for China and good for the United States.鈥�

Two-and-a-half hours later, the dinner meeting that stole the show at the weekend鈥檚 G20 summit concluded with a deal: a suspension of the intensifying trade war between the world鈥檚 two largest economies that international economists have said is beginning to threaten global economic growth.

Trump agreed not to follow through on plans to more than double on Jan. 1 the 10 percent tariffs the US has already imposed on $200 billion in Chinese goods, while Xi agreed to boost purchases of American farm goods and other products. Indeed, Trump said the Chinese would be cutting tariffs and 鈥渂uying massive amounts of products from us.鈥�

Both countries agreed to a fresh round of trade talks, to commence this month and stretch into next spring, that are intended to reach beyond questions of tariffs to discord over China鈥檚 state-based industrial policy and intellectual property protections.

And in what White House press secretary Sarah Sanders called a 鈥渨onderful humanitarian gesture,鈥� China agreed to designate Fentanyl as a controlled substance. Chinese Fentanyl is a major contributor to the US opioid crisis.

Yet while the agreement reached between the two leaders produced an almost audible global sigh of relief, it is widely seen as little more than a cease-fire in the unresolved trade conflict between the world鈥檚 two economic giants.

鈥淭here may be temporary cease-fires along the way, but those will do little more than put off the broader issues at the heart of the intensifying competition between China and the United States,鈥� says Roberto Bouzas, professor of international economics at Universidad de San Andres in Buenos Aires.

Moreover, while the accord postpones the threat of a deepening trade war, experts foresee an arduous road ahead in addressing the broader geopolitical confrontation between a retreating global superpower and a China that is rising rapidly to grasp at global leadership. At stake: not just trade and state-directed versus private-enterprise economic models, but also issues ranging from Asian security to regional development models.

鈥淭hey鈥檝e kicked the can down the road for 90 days, a period of time in which they pledge to take up not just tariffs but things like forced technology transfer [for American companies seeking to enter the Chinese market] and IP [intellectual property] protections,鈥� says Joel Trachtman, professor of international law at Tufts University鈥檚 Fletcher School in Medford, Mass. 鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 think it deals with the fundamentals of the strategic-position conflict. To address that, China has got to stop growing and adding technological prowess,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd that鈥檚 not going to happen.鈥�

As Professor Bouzas notes, the difference between the US and Chinese economies has shrunk. As recently as 2000, the US economy was more than eight times larger than China's. By 2016, the US economy only stood at about one and a half times larger than China's.

China's rise on display

China鈥檚 rise as a global power was on display at the two-day G20 summit of the world鈥檚 major economies, while an uncharacteristically subdued and withdrawn Trump symbolized for some the US retreat from its once-hyper-dominant position in global economic affairs and the advent of a multipolar 鈥� some say leaderless 鈥� world.

Xi presented himself as a champion of multilateralism, attending a number of side meetings with groups of leaders on multilateral issues 鈥� such as one with French President Emmanuel Macron and United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on advancing the Paris climate accords.

Trump, who has made clear his disdain for large international gatherings and multilateral diplomacy, emphasized his preferred bilateral diplomatic approach 鈥� and even then either canceled or downgraded a number of his planned bilateral meetings. He canceled his anticipated sit-down with Russian President Vladimir Putin, for example, citing Russia鈥檚 seizure late last month of Ukrainian vessels and sailors. He downgraded planned meetings with South Korea鈥檚 Moon Jae-in and Turkey鈥檚 Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an to brief stand-up chats.

The US did agree to sign on to the summit final communique 鈥� something Argentine organizers had fretted about after Trump memorably refused to sign on to the statement issued by leaders at last June鈥檚 G7 summit in Canada.

But even in the communique the US stood apart from the rest, insisting on a paragraph noting its withdrawal from the Paris climate accords 鈥� which all other summit participants reconfirmed as a vital part of global cooperation and action.

Trump administration officials also cited as a success language in the statement that underscores a need for reform and 鈥渋mprovement鈥� of the global trading system and specifically the World Trade Organization.

But some experts said the language stating that the global trading system 鈥渋s currently falling short of its objectives鈥� could hardly be objectionable to anyone.

Moreover, it hardly reflects the harshest of Trump administration criticisms of China鈥檚 trade practices 鈥� including that China fuels its economic rise in part through stealing American intellectual property, or forcing American companies to turn over their proprietary technologies as part of securing joint-ventures with Chinese companies.

Global patience with US?

In a particularly damning report last March, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer concluded that China seeks to dominate future technologies. More recently. Mr. Lighthizer, one of the administration鈥檚 China hawks, said China has not altered its deceptive activities despite US pressure.聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽

The Fletcher School鈥檚 Professor Trachtman says the language in the G20 communique falls far short of Trump鈥檚 past attacks on the WTO 鈥� which have included threats to bow out of the global trade organization.

Instead, what Trachtman sees in the communique鈥檚 WTO language and reference to US objections to the Paris accords is a kind of accommodation of current US leadership that seeks to limit deeper damage to the international system of governance.

鈥淚 think we鈥檙e seeing expressions of a new strategic patience on the part of the rest of the world,鈥� says Trachtman, 鈥渨ith other leaders saying, 鈥榃e鈥檙e not going to turn away from the Paris climate accords, we鈥檙e not going to turn away from the WTO, but we鈥檒l let the US take this divergent path for now, and we鈥檒l wait for a more amenable negotiating partner in managing the global trade system and other multilateral efforts.鈥� 鈥澛犅�

One White House official, speaking to journalists on condition of anonymity, said the communique included 鈥渟ome of the United States鈥� biggest objectives.鈥� Those included the separate paragraph noting US withdrawal from the Paris accords, and removal of draft language on multilateralism and protectionism.

Perhaps most notable to the more than 2,500 journalists from around the world assembled at the summit was Trump鈥檚 cancellation of his planned press conference at the G20鈥檚 conclusion. As one European journalist who had witnessed Trump鈥檚 feisty and confrontational performance at last June鈥檚 NATO summit wondered, 鈥淲here鈥檚 the Trump who makes a show out of press conferences and loves to bash allies?鈥�

White House officials said the press conference was canceled out of respect for the late President George H. W. Bush, who passed on Friday. And as for allies, Trump did honor a planned meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, calling her a 鈥渇riend鈥� and praised their 鈥済reat working relationship.鈥�

Authoritarian handshake

Still, some summit participants saw reflection of a larger US global withdrawal in Trump鈥檚 toned-down participation. And what bothers some about a US retreat from global leadership is that it risks ceding ground to the very illiberal and authoritarian forces the US-led system has aimed to hold in check.

For some, the exuberant greetings exchanged by Mr. Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman represented a kind of secret handshake of the world鈥檚 growing and increasingly unleashed authoritarians.

Argentine President Mauricio Macri hailed the summit as a resounding success for 鈥済lobal consensus,鈥� but some Argentine observers worried publicly that the iconic image of this G20 summit will be of the hybrid high-five fist-grab between Putin and the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman 鈥� two leaders widely seen to have the blood of domestic dissidents on their hands.

The CIA has determined with high confidence that the crown prince authorized the killing of Saudi journalist and US resident Jamal Khashoggi, while British intelligence concluded that Putin signed off on the poisoning of a dissident former Russian spy and his daughter living in Britain.

Noting the absence at the summit of a robust US leadership role, some analysts said the two leaders鈥� high-five would live on to symbolize the free path the US has ceded to advancing strongman rule.