海角大神

For East and South Asian countries worried about China鈥檚 growing regional dominance and looking for an alternative for economic partnership, consider your old friend the United States.

That鈥檚 the message Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has tucked in his portfolio as he travels to Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia this week to unveil the Trump administration鈥檚 vision for the US in what it calls the Indo-Pacific region.

It won鈥檛 be an easy sell. And not because countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines have any desire to see the US fade from the region. On the contrary.

But as Mr. Pompeo unsheathes his blueprint for US involvement there, the leaders and officials he meets with will be wondering if the US is a reliable partner or a retreating power.

Indeed, if President Trump鈥檚 second secretary of State is to succeed in聽deepening and reinvigorating US involvement in a region that encompasses more than half the globe鈥檚 population, he will have to overcome doubts about America's commitment sown by the last administration and reinforced during the 18 months of the Trump administration.

In addition to bilateral meetings in the three countries he鈥檚 visiting, Pompeo will be meeting in Singapore with his counterparts from the 10-nation ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) regional group.

Some in the region felt burned by Mr. Trump pulling the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, the 12-nation trade deal negotiated by the Obama administration.

The TPP has since gone into effect without the US, even as the US touts Trump鈥檚 preference for bilateral trade deals over multilateral agreements 鈥� an approach that leaves smaller countries particularly wary.

Alternative to China

Moreover, many countries in the region are going to want to know first how they might be affected by the Trump administration鈥檚 escalating trade war with China, regional and trade experts say.

But at the same time, many countries in the vast Asia-Pacific region are so keen to fortify their economic, investment, and security arrangements vis-脿-vis a rising and increasingly dominant China that they are likely to lend an attentive ear to whatever Pompeo has to lay on the table, these analysts say.

鈥淭he countries in the region other than China are very anxious to keep the US in the neighborhood, they don鈥檛 want to be in debt to China or for China to be the only game in town,鈥� says William Reinsch, a longtime Washington expert on international trade now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 鈥淏ut it strikes me that what the administration is proposing is minimal at best and isn鈥檛 about to convince anyone that we are serious about our role鈥� in the region.

鈥淎ny proposal from [the US] will be welcome,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut what they鈥檙e talking about is peanuts compared to what the Chinese have announced.鈥�

China is busy implementing its trillion-dollar Belt and Road project, which aims to link East and Central Asia through massive infrastructure development and investment. But already some countries are finding that the Chinese investment model under the plan is leaving them in debt to the regional behemoth in exchange for scant economic benefit.

US pullback feared

Countries keen to see the US presence in the region fortified are also concerned that if economic ties are not strengthened, American security engagement in the region could wane as well.

Some in Washington in regular contact with officials from across the region say those officials are convinced the Trump administration aims to draw back from the Asia-Pacific region 鈥� especially militarily 鈥� and that this conviction is prompting countries from Australia to Japan and South Korea to plan for a day when a US military presence balancing China is history.

In particular, these countries worry that a major piece of any successful denuclearization deal with North Korea will be a steep reduction or even full withdrawal of US troops from the Korean Peninsula.

In Washington Monday, Pompeo was joined by a number of other cabinet-level officials as he unveiled a $113 million plan to foster public-private partnerships in infrastructure, energy, and technology across the Indo-Pacific 鈥� a region the Trump administration defines as stretching from the Philippines to India and from Korea to Australia.

Calling this first initiative a 鈥渄own payment鈥� on a much broader strategy, Pompeo told his audience at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington that the Trump administration is expanding US engagement in the Indo-Pacific region 鈥� and that regional governments and businesses welcome the expanding American role.

And while he didn鈥檛 mention China by name, Pompeo hinted that the region is hungry for an alternative to China鈥檚 development and investment model.

鈥淭hanks to [our] history of economic and commercial engagement, America鈥檚 relationships throughout the Indo-Pacific today are characterized by mutual trust and respect,鈥� he said. 鈥淎merican friendship is welcomed, and American businesses are recognized for their ingenuity, reliability, and honesty.鈥�

A familiar ring

All true, experts in the region say. But one hurdle Pompeo will face is a sense of 鈥渙nce burned, twice shy鈥� across the region as countries that negotiated the TPP with the US 鈥� some at great political cost at home 鈥� now hear a new pitch from the administration that pulled the plug on US participation in TPP.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a real wariness,鈥� says Philip Levy, who served as senior economist for trade under President George W. Bush. 鈥淭his is a region that feels jilted by the US.鈥�

First the Obama administration promised regional leaders that if they made tough concessions on a trade agreement, it would deliver approval of the deal back home. That didn鈥檛 happen, as Mr. Levy notes. Then Trump arrived and withdrew the US from the deal.

鈥淪o the feeling across the region is that 鈥榃hen you offer sweet nothings, we swoon 鈥� and then you say, Oops, sorry, we have another place to be,鈥� 鈥� says Levy, now a senior fellow on the global economy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

Pompeo arrives in the region touting an American vision of economic partnership based on such attributes as transparency, democracy, shared prosperity, free and open trade, and rules-based commerce 鈥� all qualities that the Obama administration also cited to promote creation of a vast regional trade pact. 鈥淚t all has a familiar ring to them鈥� in the region, Levy says. 鈥淚t leaves them quite skeptical of the Trump administration.鈥�

But one way in which Trump is different is his preference for bilateral diplomacy and trade deals over big multilateral talks and accords 鈥� an option Pompeo continued to emphasize in public comments in the run-up to his trip.

Reinsch at CSIS says countries in the region are 鈥渘ot necessarily opposed鈥� to bilateral deals with the US. But he says they are turning wary given the rough experiences other countries are already having with the US in trade talks. 鈥淭hey see what鈥檚 going on with Mexico and Canada and Japan, and they鈥檙e saying, 鈥榃hy do we want to go through that?鈥� 鈥�

Mixed feelings about trade war

Beyond that, there are mixed feelings over the growing US trade war with China. For all the satisfaction some countries may feel at seeing the US push back on China over trade, there are also concerns over the regional impact if the war deepens or drags on.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 much celebrating in the region, despite widespread concerns over Chinese behavior,鈥� says Levy. 鈥淭he bottom line is that trade in the region is built on intricate supply chains鈥� frequently involving Chinese companies at some point in production, he notes. 鈥淪o actually there鈥檚 a lot of alarm that what hits China ends up affecting all.鈥�

Yet for all the concern over issues of the moment, like the US-China trade war and bilateral versus multilateral diplomacy, what underlies it all are the doubts over the long-term US commitment to the region, analysts say.

鈥淭he big question in the region is, can the US come up with a strategy for its engagement and stick to it,鈥� says Levy. 鈥淧ompeo is to be congratulated for taking a vision and something concrete to the region,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut it鈥檚 hardly enough to even begin to address the concerns about the long-term US commitment.鈥�