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The 鈥淧utin Not My President鈥� signs had disappeared from Washington protests. The ongoing probes of Russian interference in the US election had receded enough from the foreground to allow the Trump administration to test the prospects for diplomacy with Moscow.

In that light, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov鈥檚 meetings in Washington on May 10 with President Trump and with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson were set to be almost normal encounters for a difficult but necessary relationship.

Syria, fighting terrorism, and maybe even planning for a first meeting between Mr. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin were on the agenda.

But then Trump abruptly fired FBI Director James Comey the previous night, and suddenly Russia and its role in influencing the outcome of the US presidential race 鈥� a role Mr. Comey was investigating 鈥� were back on center stage.

That will make any cooperation with Moscow 鈥� whether it鈥檚 on Syria, or Ukraine, or over any of the many other international issues the two powers have a stake in 鈥� all the more difficult.

鈥淎s long as the controversy over collusion between the Russians and the Trump campaign continues, Russia-US relations are kind of blocked,鈥� says Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

鈥淭o the extent [the Comey firing] keeps the controversy alive, it鈥檚 hard to see how the relationship can improve,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚n fact it can probably only get worse.鈥�

That鈥檚 saying something. Mr. Tillerson had already deemed bilateral relations to be at a 鈥渓ow point鈥� when he visited Moscow last month. After meeting with Mr. Putin, Tillerson concluded at a terse press conference with Mr. Lavrov that 鈥渢here is a low level of trust between our two countries.鈥�

Until Tuesday, that cloud of mistrust that lingered over the relationship, while hardly dissipating, was gradually shifting from the election interference issue to more geopolitical and diplomatically manageable questions, like Russia鈥檚 support for Syria鈥檚 Bashar al-Assad.

'Grand bargain' less likely

Indeed, Trump and Tillerson appeared to have decided that, while relations were going to remain difficult, 鈥淪yria was the one issue they could try to use to turn the relationship around,鈥� says Dr. Sestanovich, who was US ambassador-at-large to the former Soviet Union from 1997-2001. That was never going to be easy, he adds, because Putin鈥檚 plan for moving forward in Syria and resolving the long civil war there offers little to entice the US.

鈥淭he Putin plan doesn鈥檛 give the US much: it legitimizes the Russian role in the conflict, it fortifies Iran鈥檚 involvement, and it strengthens Assad,鈥� he says. 鈥淔or the US, the question was, 鈥楾ell me what鈥檚 good about it?鈥欌��

Even so, some in Washington had worried since Trump鈥檚 inauguration that the new president might strike a 鈥済rand bargain鈥� with Russia, trading actions Putin covets 鈥� lifting of US sanctions on Russia, for example, or recognition of Russia鈥檚 鈥渞ight鈥� to Crimea 鈥� for Russian promises to act against ISIS and other terrorists.

That kind of deal suddenly seems less likely, some analysts say, at least in the near term.

鈥淚n many ways, Trump鈥檚 hands are now tied,鈥� says Julianne Smith, director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. 鈥淭here are so many questions about his relations with Russia, about the people around him, their relations with Russia,鈥� she adds, 鈥渢hat it would be very hard for the president to proceed with a full-on 鈥榞rand bargain鈥� at this point.鈥�

Trump might still try to 鈥渕ove the needle here and there,鈥� she says, 鈥渂ut the Comey firing makes a tough situation for him that much more difficult.鈥�

Downside to US turmoil

Like Sestanovich, Ms. Smith says the Russians have little to offer the US when it comes to Syria. 鈥淲hat I鈥檓 hoping is that Tillerson is whispering in the president鈥檚 ear that the Russians aren鈥檛 in a place to be very helpful on countering terrorism in Syria, they aren鈥檛 very active and conducting air strikes in the areas where ISIS is strongest,鈥� she says.

But she also cautions that no one should be tempted to consider the uproar in Washington over relations with Russia a positive, even if it does put off actions by Trump that many analysts would view negatively.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a real downside to so much turmoil in our own political system, and it plays right into both the image the Russians want to portray of our democratic system and the way they want us act towards them,鈥� she says.

鈥淭he Russians want us to keep quiet about the shortcomings of their political system, they don鈥檛 want to hear from us about their lack of respect for human rights,鈥� Smith says. 鈥淪o it鈥檚 unfortunate to have something like the Comey firing occur while Lavrov鈥檚 here, because it allows them to say, 鈥楬ow can you talk to us about political shortcomings when you are in such disarray?鈥欌��

But at least there were discussions between the two capitals. With the cloud over bilateral relations suddenly darkening again, Putin might decide there鈥檚 little to be gained with the US, and that could be bad for diplomacy.

Sestanovich says the Russians are convinced that 鈥渃old-war thinking still rules in the US鈥� and that 鈥渋f US-Russia relations are bad, it鈥檚 because the US has hostile intentions towards Russia.鈥�

Americans might consider that a 鈥渕istaken inclination,鈥� he says, but he adds that Russians are no doubt going to see the latest crescendo of attention to Russia as fulfillment of their 鈥渙utlook鈥� 鈥� and that is going to put off further any glimmer of progress for the bilateral relationship.

Moscow dismissive of impact

Yet as incomprehensible as it may be to Putin, the fact is that the issue of Russian interference in the US elections, already troubling to a wide range of US leaders, has galvanized an increasingly bipartisan set of stakeholders in the wake of the Comey firing.

A number of Republican senators joined their Democratic colleagues in calling the dismissal 鈥渢roubling,鈥� while many conservative news commentators and analysts underscored the questions the president鈥檚 action raised about his and his campaign鈥檚 relations with Russia.

鈥淔irst president ever investigated by FBI for collusion with hostile foreign power,鈥� tweeted conservative foreign-policy analyst Max Boot. 鈥淔irst president fired FBI director in charge of probe.鈥�

Russian officials may find that kind of commentary perplexing 鈥� just as they appeared to dismiss the potential for Trump鈥檚 firing of the FBI director to affect US-Russian relations.

When reporters asked Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov how Comey鈥檚 firing might affect US-Russia relations, Mr. Peskov said, 鈥淲e hope that it will not affect them at all. That鈥檚 the United States鈥� internal affair. That鈥檚 the US president鈥檚 independent decision, which has nothing to do and should have nothing to do with Russia.鈥�

He should be right, of course. But under the circumstances, US-Russia relations are likely to remain under a cloud for the foreseeable future, and some issues that normally would be strictly domestic affairs will continue to roil the bilateral relationship.