海角大神

Sporadic tweets and swirling rumors of ties with Russia have the global intelligence community on its toes as Donald Trump begins his presidency.

US intelligence agents reportedly warned Israel that information shared with the White House risked being leaked to Russia, Israeli daily newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported last Thursday. The story is disputed, but many analysts are worrying how the spy communities at home and abroad will respond to the brash new leader鈥檚 itchy Twitter fingers.

鈥淚 think the world is watching now what Mr. Trump says, and listening very carefully,鈥� said John Brennan, CIA director during the Obama administration, to Fox News. 鈥淚f he doesn't have confidence in the intelligence community, what signal does that send to our partners and allies, as well as our adversaries?鈥�

One longtime ally may be listening more carefully than most. Israeli and US intelligence reportedly collaborated to take down 20 percent of Iran鈥檚 nuclear centrifuges with the jointly developed Stuxnet virus in 2010, continuing a history of working together to monitor and slow a nuclear program that Yedioth Ahronoth says goes back at least 20 years.

Now US agents have allegedly warned the Israelis that their worst fears could come true: information could travel from the White House to Tehran, via Russia.

The New York Times, McClatchy, and the BBC all report that multiple law enforcement agencies have been investigating Trump's potential ties to Russia since last spring. US intelligence has been united in asserting that Russian president Vladimir Putin attempted to swing the US election for Trump with the DNC hack. Furthermore, persistent rumors allege that the Kremlin holds sensitive material that could be used to blackmail President Trump, who strongly denies the rumors as a 鈥減olitical witch hunt鈥� and 鈥渇ake news.鈥�

Citing US intelligence that seems to have made its way from the Snowden documents to Iran after Edward Snowden won political asylum in Russia, Israeli officials are concerned that future information about covert Israeli activity in Iran could move the same way.

But some say the US would never undermine the integrity of the intelligence apparatus. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 share those concerns. I saw the reporting. I don鈥檛 think, even looking at the dynamics we are talking about, I don鈥檛 think the Americans would do it. It is still America鈥檚 CIA,鈥� former CIA and NSA director Michael Hayden told the Jerusalem Post.

He also advised Mike Pompeo, Trump鈥檚 pick for CIA director, to visit Israel soon, and 鈥渞einforce the already rich relations between Israeli and American intelligence.鈥�

Even assuming the rumors prove false, Trump has openly聽praised Putin, and any move closer to Russia raises eyebrows in Europe. 鈥淚f there鈥檚 a sense that we鈥檙e cozying up to regimes like Vladimir Putin鈥檚 Russia, that could have something of a chilling effect," a senior official from former President Barack Obama鈥檚 administration told Politico. "The challenge may be in places like Germany, France, potentially even the United Kingdom. If there is a reorientation toward Moscow, there could be some doubts there.鈥�

While entrenched intelligence-sharing agreements like the one with Britain won鈥檛 be easily undermined, the US depends on many agencies around the world to increase its reach. If partner organizations don鈥檛 feel that working together is in their best interest, American intelligence may find some information streams drying up. 聽聽

Trump鈥檚 public dismissal of the CIA and FBI鈥檚 conclusions regarding Russia鈥檚 DNC hacking could prove troublesome, too. 鈥淗ow many foreign intelligence agencies might say, 'I鈥檓 not sure giving this information to the Americans will do any good anyway. So why should we share it in the first place?' " Hayden explained to Politico. 鈥淚f they come to the conclusion that the decision-makers don鈥檛 pay attention to the intelligence and the intelligence community is not respected, then why take the risk?鈥�

Another complication is president Trump鈥檚 heavy Twitter use, which was producing friction with China and crashing stocks even before he took office, prompting debate in finance and media as to how to interpret the pithy 140-character policy announcements.

海角大神 previously reported on the effects of one tweet as an example, which caused F-35 developer Lockheed Martin鈥檚 stock to drop by at one point $4 billion.

But will foreign intelligence agencies come to the same conclusions? In the spy world, information is power, and like toothpaste, it can鈥檛 be bottled back up once released. Trump has shown a willingness to attack perceived critics on Twitter, and such attacks could have serious consequences if directed overseas and backed up with sensitive information.

Nevertheless, former CIA Director Michael Morell, who supported Hillary Clinton during the election and had previously called Trump an 鈥渦nwitting agent of the Russian Federation,鈥� expressed cautious optimism that the weight of the presidency would produce a calmer commander in chief in an interview last year with University of Chicago publication The Gate.

When asked whether Trump鈥檚 鈥淎merica First鈥� comments would have a negative impact on intelligence partnerships, he expressed faith in the resilience of the apparatus:

"No," he said, "Intelligence relationships are below the radar. They continue, they stay healthy no matter what鈥檚 going on in the politics, so no, it wouldn鈥檛."

But while the relationships would survive, the comments might blunt US effectiveness, Mr. Morell continued.

"It would have a huge impact on what we try to do in the world, who is going to be willing to help us and who is not, and the power we can project in the world. Our alliance system is one of the ways we project power, so it鈥檚 incredibly important."