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Kerry looks for regional coalition to take on the Islamic State

Secretary of State John Kerry faces a tough job crafting a regional coalition to confront the Islamic State extremist group in Iraq and Syria. For one thing, potential coalition partners don't necessarily trust each other 鈥 or the US.

By Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer
WASHINGTON

President Obama鈥檚 assignment to Secretary of State John Kerry to build a coalition of countries willing to join the United States in taking on the Islamic State extremist group in Iraq and Syria will be no cake walk.

If anything is lightening Mr. Kerry鈥檚 burden, it鈥檚 the shockwaves of the Islamic State鈥檚 stunning sweep to control of parts of northern Iraq that have reverberated through the region and begun to convince Sunni Arab governments in the region that the spreading organization poses a threat to them.

鈥淜erry鈥檚 is not an easy assignment by any means, but it鈥檚 been made easier by the conquests [the group] has made and what those conquests could mean for the region if allowed not just to hold, but to grow,鈥 says Wayne White, a former State Department official and now an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington. 鈥淔or those reasons I think we鈥檒l see some Sunni Arab countries sign up willingly.鈥

After Obama announced Thursday that he was tasking his chief diplomat with building a coalition to tackle the IS threat, the State Department announced Kerry would travel to the region following the NATO summit in Wales Sept. 4-5. No stops or dates were provided.聽聽 聽

Still, two reasons stand out in explaining why Kerry faces no easy task in cobbling together a coalition for what Obama says will be a long-term effort, diplomatic experts say.

The first has to do with regional perceptions of the US commitment to defeating the Islamic State (IS), or ISIS as it is also known. Doubts about Mr. Obama鈥檚 appetite for any kind of US-led campaign in Syria, are still fresh after last year鈥檚 abrupt calling-off of air strikes against the regime of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, some experts say 鈥 and were hardly eased by the president鈥檚 statement Thursday that he has yet to settle on a 鈥渟trategy鈥 for tackling IS.

鈥淥ne of the main difficulties Kerry will have to overcome is the disinterest the Gulf countries feel they鈥檝e found in the Obama administration regarding their concerns over Syria,鈥 says Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow and Syria expert at the Washington Institute on Near East Policy (WINEP) in Washington.

鈥淭hey鈥檝e been marked by what they see as a lack of concern over the slaughter of so many Sunnis.鈥

The Saudis in particular were 鈥渆nraged鈥 by Obama鈥檚 鈥渨alking back from his own red line,鈥 Mr. Tabler says. The Saudis and other Gulf Arabs lost faith in cooperation with the US, and as a result may take some convincing that this time the US commitment is good. 聽聽聽聽聽

The other reason Kerry faces a steep road ahead is that gathering into one effort countries with divergent interests and often strong mutual mistrusts will be like herding cats.

As Obama said in his comments on IS and Syria Thursday, the first key to begin rolling back IS in northern Iraq will be formation of an 鈥渋nclusive鈥 government in Baghdad 鈥 meaning a government that seriously and convincingly incorporates the Sunni minority. But after the campaign of ostracism carried out by the government of the previous prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, the Sunni Arab countries are skeptical of real change.

Moreover, the Sunni Arabs suffer some intense rivalries and mistrust among themselves, some experts say. 鈥淲ithin the Gulf [countries] there are absolutely notorious rivalries, there are intense suspicions of Qatar鈥 and its regional ambitions, MEI鈥檚 Mr. White says.

One result of the rivalries and mistrusts is that the US may end up working with countries more individually than as a true coalition, at least initially. 鈥淚n some cases what we鈥檙e likely to see is that these countries will work more bilaterally with the US than they will with each other,鈥 White says.

And on top of all this, WINEP鈥檚 Tabler says the Sunni Gulf countries in particular are suspicious of US efforts to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, and could be put off by signs out of the US that it could also cooperate with Tehran in efforts to push IS out of Iraq.

Despite all these difficulties, Kerry will also be able to work with a number of substantial 鈥渙pportunities鈥 as he woos coalition participants, Tabler says.

The first of these is how IS and what Tabler calls 鈥渏ihadism鈥 are perceived as a common threat. 鈥淚f [the Sunni Arabs] perceive a threat to their interests and security in the region 鈥 and I think they do 鈥 they鈥檒l be more willing to work with the US on that threat,鈥 he says.

White says the US can offer evidence 鈥 the success so far of its air strikes in Iraq 鈥 that it is committed to rolling IS back from the Sunni cites and fertile lands it has occupied in northern Iraq.

Indeed, White says, Obama鈥檚 statement Thursday that he doesn鈥檛 yet have a 鈥渟trategy鈥 for defeating IS was a 鈥済affe鈥 mostly because 鈥渋t鈥檚 not true 鈥 the strategy is to start in Iraq, both with a new government in Baghdad that offers a political deal to the Sunnis, and pushing ISIS out of its assets in northern Iraq.鈥

With those two steps, he says, 鈥測ou can begin levering [the Sunnis] out of supporting ISIS,鈥 and strengthen cooperation with Sunni tribes, some of which span the border into Syria, he says. 鈥淚t makes sense to start from Iraq,鈥 White says.聽

The gravity of the situation in Syria also presents Kerry with an 鈥渙pportunity鈥 to enlist the Sunni Arabs by ensuring them that the US is committed to seeing a Sunni opposition alternative established in the Syrian territory that IS now controls, Tabler says.

That messaging to the region has already begun, Tabler says. He says Obama went out of his way in his comments Thursday to assert that Mr. Assad is not the answer to IS, despite a chorus of voices in Washington and Europe insisting the US will have to work with Assad to uproot IS.

聽鈥淗e made it clear that the US will be working with its partners in the region, not with the Assad regime, and I鈥檓 certain those weren鈥檛 words spoken by accident,鈥 Tabler says. 鈥淗e was sending a message.鈥

Kerry has to be able to convince Sunni Arab partners that the US is committed not just to removing IS, he says, but to filling the vacuum resulting from its defeat in Syria with a 鈥渕oderate Sunni force鈥 with both military and political aspects.

鈥淭he issue for the Sunni Arabs is what replaces ISIS, both in Iraq and in Syria,鈥 according to Tabler. 鈥淚f in Iraq it鈥檚 another strong Shia regime, if in Syria it鈥檚 Assad hanging on and controlling the Sunnis again, there鈥檚 going to be blowback in the Sunni monarchies. So they鈥檙e going to want to hear how the US views this and what it鈥檚 really committed to this time.鈥澛 聽聽