Merkel's White House test: suppress anger over NSA to show unity on Ukraine
The uncomfortable issue of NSA spying on America鈥檚 allies is sure to come up when Germany's Angela Merkel and Obama meet Friday, but the crisis in Ukraine will dominate their agenda.
The uncomfortable issue of NSA spying on America鈥檚 allies is sure to come up when Germany's Angela Merkel and Obama meet Friday, but the crisis in Ukraine will dominate their agenda.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will still be smarting from last year鈥檚 revelations of US eavesdropping on her cellphone when she visits the White House Friday for lunch and several hours of talks with President Obama.
But even if the nagging issue of the National Security Agency spying on America鈥檚 allies is sure to come up, the crisis in Ukraine 鈥 and in particular coordination of the transatlantic response to Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 challenge to European order 鈥 will dominate the agenda.
Facing the gravest challenge to stability in Europe since the cold war, the two leaders 鈥 both pragmatists and practitioners of a cautious and deliberate foreign policy 鈥 will be looking to each other for leadership in addressing the Ukraine storm.
Ms. Merkel 鈥 the Western leader with the closest personal relationship with Mr. Putin, and whose country has the strongest economic ties to Russia 鈥 can be expected to argue for continuing a careful 鈥渟tep-by-step鈥 approach to Russian aggression, transatlantic experts say. Merkel was deeply disappointed by Putin鈥檚 annexation of Crimea and the campaign of destabilization he is carrying out in eastern Ukraine, German experts say, and now believes a tough Western response is in order.
At the same time, she is likely to encourage Mr. Obama to continue with his approach of coordinating with Europe and prioritizing transatlantic unity over unilateral action, they add 鈥 despite the domestic criticism Merkel knows Obama faces for not moving faster.
鈥淢erkel鈥檚 response to the crisis has been a little bit tougher than some might have expected,鈥 says Christopher Chivvis, a specialist in European and Eurasian security at RAND Corp. in Arlington, Va. It鈥檚 also true, he adds, that because of Germany鈥檚 leadership role in Europe and its dominant role in relations with Russia, 鈥渨hat she says has a really big impact in the region.鈥
As a result of Merkel鈥檚 somewhat surprising firmness and the influential role she plays, Mr. Chivvis anticipates an effort by Obama to enlist Germany to go farther and do more.
鈥淚 would expect the president will try to lean in a little bit on Ukraine,鈥 he says.
Obama has refrained from imposing sanctions on entire sectors of the Russian economy in part because of European reluctance to go that route. But the president is expected to try to pin down with Merkel what additional Russian actions in Ukraine would trigger tougher measures from the Europeans, including broader sectoral sanctions, US officials say.
On the Ukraine file, the two leaders will have more than just the issue of sanctions on Russia to keep them busy. Another priority item will be how to help ensure that the national elections Ukraine has scheduled for May 25 go off without major hitches (many regional experts believe Russia is doing everything it can to undermine the vote) and result in a legitimate and authoritative national government.
Ukraine鈥檚 economic survival will also be on the agenda. In addition to her White House visit, Merkel will also meet with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde to discuss what financial and economic help Ukraine will need to get back on its feet.
Merkel is also scheduled to address the US Chamber of Commerce Friday afternoon, focusing on the transatlantic free trade and investment agreement that the US and European Union are hoping to conclude next year. She was planning to dine with a group of US senators upon her arrival in Washington Thursday evening.
Yet even as Ukraine receives top billing in Merkel鈥檚 visit, the outrage she 鈥 and indeed much of Germany 鈥 felt upon learning last year of NSA spying on German leaders, including Merkel, will not be far below the surface.
When Obama invited Merkel to Washington earlier this year, she said pointedly that the process of reestablishing trust would take 鈥渕ore than one trip.鈥 Germany has pressed for a 鈥渘o-spy鈥 accord with the US like the one the US has with Britain and a few other English-speaking allies, but the US has made it clear it is not prepared to take that step, and Merkel is not expected to insist on that point.
This willingness to downplay an important issue that risks getting in the way of addressing another will put Merkel鈥檚 pragmatism on full display. It also provides a stark contrast with the response of another world leader who found her country embroiled in the NSA spying controversy.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff had been invited for what would have been the only state visit to the Obama White House last year. But with Brazilians still furious over revelations of US spying in their country, Ms. Rousseff called off the visit. US-Brazilian relations have not recovered since.
Merkel also faces heightened anti-American sentiments at home, German experts note. But she also supports a strong transatlantic partnership, these experts emphasize, and she represents a Germany that sees a continuing US leadership role in Europe as all the more important in the era of an aggressive and even expansionist Russia.
鈥淭he Germans want to stay close to the US, they don鈥檛 want the story [from Merkel鈥檚 visit] to be one of divergence,鈥 says Charles Ries, international vice president and expert in European Affairs at RAND.
But Ambassador Ries, who just returned to Washington from Europe, says German leaders and many of their European colleagues want the US to consult with them and take their concerns into consideration even as it retains an active role in Europe.
鈥淥ften they grumble if we don鈥檛 set out a clear [path] 鈥 but they can also grumble if we do,鈥 says Ries. 鈥淲hat they really don鈥檛 like is when the US seems to be not acting.鈥
That ambivalence presents 鈥渁 leadership challenge for the US,鈥 he says.
Some similar ambivalence will no doubt accompany Merkel into the Oval Office, as she seeks some attention to the NSA spying discord even as the Ukraine crisis dominates the day.
Some public expression of understanding from Obama about Germany鈥檚 spying concerns might be enough to deliver the picture of firm accord on Ukraine the White House wants. 鈥淚f [Merkel] gets that,鈥 Ries, says, it鈥檚 likely the US 鈥渃an get an outcome from the White House visit that [projects] strong alliance unity and resolve.鈥