海角大神

Now that Egypt鈥檚 first democratically elected president has been removed from office by the country鈥檚 powerful military, the United States can try to use its leverage to get what it would like see: a return to constitutional order and an elected government, through elections including all of Egypt鈥檚 political factions, in short order.

But US ability to influence events and leaders in Egypt is scant, as ex-President Mohammed Morsi's year in power and Tuesday鈥檚 coup against him demonstrate.

Although most Egyptians seem to suspect that America鈥檚 heavy hand is behind every major move in their country, it is evident that the Obama administration, starting with President Obama, was unable to deter Mr. Morsi from his authoritarian drift over recent months. Nor was it able to dissuade the Egyptian military, with which the US has long ties, from ousting Morsi and arresting him and dozens of other officials from Morsi鈥檚 Muslim Brotherhood.

On Friday, the military intervened against pro-Morsi rallies across Egypt, with resulting violence claiming the lives of at least six demonstrators, according to news reports.

One explanation for this lack of US influence, some regional experts and critics of US policy say, is that the US has been reluctant to use its main leverage with Egypt 鈥� the $1.6 billion in annual aid (most of it military assistance) that makes Egypt the second-largest recipient of US aid, after Israel 鈥� to pressure leaders in their actions. The US should suspend that aid now, they say, to make clear to Egypt鈥檚 new military-backed powers that the US and the international community are demanding that certain steps 鈥� new elections, delivery of a new constitution 鈥� occur quickly.聽

But for others, America's lack of influence is primarily a result of the little attention the US has paid to Egypt 鈥� even as this key Arab ally underwent a tumultuous and region-influencing revolution.

鈥淲e鈥檝e been highly disengaged from Egypt over the past few years, and we鈥檝e not built much of a relationship, haven鈥檛 been very active with the broad range of actors playing a role in Egypt today,鈥� says Robert Danin, a former deputy assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs who is now a Middle East senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Affairs in Washington. 鈥淭o the extent that we seem powerless now,鈥� he adds, 鈥渋t鈥檚 in part because we鈥檝e not been clear about what we鈥檝e wanted and the seriousness we attribute to it.鈥�

The US ambassador to Egypt, Anne Patterson, became a stand-out target of anti-Morsi demonstrators in the days preceding the president鈥檚 ouster. But if Ambassador Patterson came to symbolize a perceived US acquiescence to Morsi鈥檚 accumulation of powers and trampling of basic freedoms, it鈥檚 because neither the White House nor the State Department had been very public about US concerns over Morsi鈥檚 drift,聽some analysts say.

Now the US has something of a 鈥渟econd chance,鈥� Mr. Danin says 鈥� but he cautions that, especially where the US is starting from, it can鈥檛 expect to simply order the results it wishes to see.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a difference between Egypt accepting our diktats and our having an influence," he says. 鈥淚鈥檇 argue that when we are engaged we can have tremendous influence.鈥�

What happens in Egypt and its next direction are important enough to the US and its interests in the region that Mr. Obama should speak publicly and clearly about it in coming days, some analysts say.

Others say the US can send the clearest and most powerful signal by suspending aid to Egypt. Indeed, many say the US has no choice but to suspend aid, because the Foreign Assistance Act stipulates that no aid 鈥� other than democracy-promotion assistance 鈥� can go to 鈥渁ny country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by a military coup d鈥檈tat.鈥澛�

Given that, "a suspension of aid is required by US law,鈥� says Daniel Calingaert, executive vice president of Freedom House in Washington. But suspending aid, he adds, 鈥渨ould also serve the purpose of exercising leverage that the US has been far to hesitant to use until now.鈥� What the US must do now, he says, is 鈥減ush Egypt鈥檚 interim government to set a date for presidential and parliamentary elections, respect the fundamental rights of all Egyptians, and bring all major political currents, including the Muslim Brotherhood鈥檚 Freedom and Justice Party, into discussions about the country鈥檚 way forward.鈥�

CFR鈥檚 Danin agrees that military assistance probably should be suspended. But more important still, he says, would be to lay out to Egyptians a set of 鈥渋ncentives and disincentives鈥� defining what the US expects to see in the weeks going forward 鈥� and how the US proposes to help Egypt get there.

鈥淭here is a middle ground between simply imposing our will and disengaging,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e need to work on finding it.鈥�