海角大神

As North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has issued increasingly belligerent statements toward South Korea and the United States in recent weeks, many North Asia analysts have concluded that the young Mr. Kim is acting to establish his tough-guy credentials with key audiences: the North Korean public, but also the military and other North Korean elites.

But in response, the Obama administration 鈥� while actually saying little 鈥� has also been acting to reassure the American public and key allies like South Korea and Japan, even as it tries to figure out what Kim Jong-un is really up to and the best way to deal with him, some regional experts say.

鈥淭he early superficial take-away on [Kim] is that he鈥檚 not afraid to be out front, not afraid to take risks.... He speaks more directly to the public than his father did, and after he鈥檚 established his military credentials he can then turn his focus to the economy,鈥� says Jim Walsh, an expert in international security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology鈥檚 Security Studies Program.

鈥淏ut the US is also sending its own messages鈥� by responding to Kim鈥檚 rhetoric 鈥� which has included a vow to attack the US 鈥� with the inclusion of nuclear-capable B-52s in US-South Korea military exercises and a reinforcing of missile defense batteries in Alaska, he says.

The Obama administration 鈥渋s sending a message of reassurance to South Korea and the American public in particular,鈥� Dr. Walsh says, 鈥渂ut [it is] also telling a leader who is really breaking new ground with direct and specific threats, 鈥業f you keep talking like that, this is what you have to look forward to.鈥� 鈥�

But besides such messaging, the US has had very little to say in response to Kim鈥檚 actions 鈥� which have included tearing up the Korean War armistice, severing a security communications line with Seoul, and publicly reviewing military planning for attacks on a number of US sites including Hawaii and Austin, Texas.

Secretary of State John Kerry will certainly have more to say when he visits Japan, South Korea, and China in mid-April, but in the meantime the administration is speaking softly as it brandishes its big sticks. A White House spokesman said that the North is further isolating itself with its 鈥渂ellicose rhetoric鈥� (last Friday) and Secretary Kerry has called on North Korea to 鈥渆ngage in legitimate dialogue鈥� instead of issuing threats (early last month).

The US has also been working to impose new sanctions and to reinforce international implementation of existing measures against North Korea since the United Nations Security Council approved a new round of sanctions last month in response to the North鈥檚 February nuclear test.

Some security analysts accuse the US of needlessly provoking Kim with a string of military measures at a delicate moment in the new leader鈥檚 consolidation of power. (At 29 or 30 years of age, Kim is the world鈥檚 youngest head of state, having assumed power at the death of his father in December 2011.)

But many other experts say the US has acted prudently as the unknown quantity in charge in Pyongyang 鈥� who has already overseen a worrisome nuclear test and long-range missile launch 鈥� has recently issued increasingly incendiary threats.

The US is simply covering its security bases, the latter reasoning goes, while it tries to figure out who Kim is and how best to approach him.

No one can even be certain that Kim is the guy in charge in North Korea, some analysts say. 鈥淵ou can conclude that as a leader he seems to be quite risk-acceptant, but there鈥檚 also reason to be cautious and ask questions like, 鈥業s he really in charge, or is it a family clique or council?鈥� 鈥� says Walsh. 鈥淐ertainly the US government is still asking, 鈥榃hat are his relations with the military?鈥� 鈥�

Given the deep uncertainties about North Korea, the US public seems to be broadly supportive of the Obama administration鈥檚 approach 鈥� taking precautions militarily even as it imposes new sanctions to try to influence the North鈥檚 behavior 鈥� according to a new Monitor/TIPP poll.

But the poll also suggests that the public may be out in front of the administration by strongly favoring the kind of 鈥渄ialogue鈥� the White House is pursuing with Iran over its nuclear program but has not yet proposed with North Korea.

More than two-thirds of Americans 鈥� 68 percent 鈥� say they favor opening direct talks with the North Korean regime, according to the poll conducted March 25-30. Only 24 percent disagree with the idea of dialogue.

Even more popular is the imposition of economic sanctions. Nearly three-quarters of Americans 鈥� 74 percent 鈥� support exerting economic pressure and even increasing it with additional measures.

Much less popular among a war-weary populace is the idea of military intervention to 鈥渞emove鈥� North Korea鈥檚 nuclear installations. Still, a sizable minority of 40 percent would support such action, while 53 percent oppose.

And among self-identified Republicans, military action against the North has the support of a small majority 鈥� 51 percent.

MIT鈥檚 Walsh says he sees very little chance of US military action against the North, because he says no one involved in the current ratcheting-up of tensions wants a military confrontation 鈥� neither the US nor the North, nor South Korea.

The danger, he says, is that someone makes a mistake that gets the military ball rolling.

And more long term, Walsh worries there will be repercussions from the precautionary actions the US has taken that the Obama administration may not wish to see. President Obama could see his nonproliferation and disarmament goals set back by the US 鈥渂randishing鈥� of its nuclear-ready aircraft, and not all of North Korea鈥檚 neighbors will interpret the US measures as a reassuring display of the US nuclear umbrella.

鈥淐learly one of [the US] goals is to reassure states like South Korea and Japan, 鈥榊ou don鈥檛 have to go nuclear because we can protect you,鈥� 鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut on the other hand, my guess is that the Russians and the Chinese aren鈥檛 too happy about the US flying nuclear-capable [aircraft] near their borders.鈥�