海角大神

The elaborate public funeral Venezuela will hold for President Hugo Ch谩vez Friday will take place with already troubled US-Venezuela relations at a new low point.

The sour relations have US officials downbeat about prospects for a turnaround between the two countries anytime soon. Beyond that, the onset of a turbulent presidential election campaign that is likely to feature the US as an enemy of the deceased leader鈥檚 vision for Latin America will also feed Latin America鈥檚 deep divides, analysts say 鈥� and 聽could complicate prospects for US relations with the region.

Political heirs of the fiery and anti-US leader made it clear in the hours following the announcement Tuesday of his passing that the forces of 鈥渃havismo,鈥� Mr. Ch谩vez鈥檚 brand of populist socialism, intend to stoke the flames of anti-American sentiment as a means of rallying Venezuelans left distraught and confused by the president鈥檚 demise.

Ch谩vez鈥檚 hand-picked heir apparent, Vice President Nicolas Maduro, accused 鈥渋mperialist forces鈥� 鈥� a clear reference to the US 鈥� of infecting Ch谩vez with the disease that took his life. He also announced an investigation into the cause of death that promises to keep the country鈥檚 鈥渆nemies鈥� at the forefront of Venezuelans鈥� thought as they adjust to life without Ch谩vez and prepare for a new presidential election.

The Venezuelan constitution says a new election must be called within 30 days of the president鈥檚 passing, but no date has yet been set.

A Venezuelan election that exacerbates the divide between the forces of chavismo and an opposition that is more favorable to a free market economy, to democratic rule 鈥� and to the US 鈥� is likely to extend the country鈥檚 political turbulence, regional experts say.

Perhaps even more worrisome for the US, a political fight in Venezuela along Latin America鈥檚 ideological fault lines 鈥� broadly speaking Ch谩vez鈥檚 leftist populism versus Brazil鈥檚 model of change through economic growth 鈥� risks deepening the region鈥檚 divisions and complicating US interests, some analysts say.

US relations with Venezuela 鈥渁re likely to remain difficult if Ch谩vez鈥檚 preferred successor [Mr. Maduro] succeeds Ch谩vez, at least in the near term,鈥� says Patrick Duddy, a former US ambassador to Venezuela who is now a visiting senior lecturer at Duke University in Durham, N.C.聽

And turmoil in Venezuela would only harm US goals across the hemisphere, he adds. 鈥淧olitical instability and violence in Venezuela would damage US efforts to promote democracy, increase regional cooperation, combat narcotics, and protect its economic interests in the region,鈥� Ambassador Duddy says. 聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽

US officials who first made contact with Maduro last November (as Ch谩vez鈥檚 condition worsened) and had been working to launch a dialogue with the government were dismayed by Maduro鈥檚 accusations Tuesday against the US 鈥� in part because they suggested the man who may very well succeed Ch谩vez was adopting his mentor鈥檚 tactics. 聽

鈥淥ne of the consistent elements [of the Ch谩vez approach] was using us [the US] as a foil, as a straw man that could be attacked,鈥� says a senior State Department official. Now Maduro, the official adds, is proceeding 鈥渋n a away very consistent with the way this government has addressed these matters.鈥�

Roger Noriega, a former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs in the Bush administration, saw other worrisome signs in Maduro鈥檚 鈥渞idiculous accusations鈥� against the US. By expelling two US military officials and publicly accusing them of inappropriate contacts with some Venezuelan military officials, Maduro was sending a chilling message to a domestic audience, he says.

鈥淚t was a pretty brazen tactic by Maduro to sow doubts about the loyalty of some of his own military,鈥� says Mr. Noriega, now a fellow in Latin American issues at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. 鈥淭here is a struggle going on,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢he military is not unified, and neither is chavismo.鈥�

In that context, Maduro鈥檚 broadside at the US 鈥� and his message that contact with US officials is contrary to Venezuela鈥檚 interests 鈥� hardly augur well for improved relations between the two countries.

Another senior State Department officials says the US will send a delegation to the Ch谩vez funeral, but adds that the coming 鈥渨eeks and months鈥� of an election campaign aren鈥檛 likely to be the time to 鈥渂reak new ground鈥� in relations between the two countries.

鈥淚t may take a little while before the Venezuelan government that emerges from elections is ready to have that conversation a bit more regularly,鈥� the officials said.

Others see this post-Ch谩vez period as the time for the US to forge ahead with closer relations with Latin America 鈥� and to publicly hold Venezuela accountable for upholding the democratic principles it signed on to through the Organization of American States.

鈥淚 think this is an opportunity [for the US] to reengage in the region 鈥� and in fact to reach out and initiate better relations with Venezuela itself,鈥� says Noriega.

With the polarizing Ch谩vez gone, countries in the region may be more interested in moving beyond divisions and working together, he says. 鈥淣ow that Ch谩vez is dead, it will be interesting to see if leaders in the region summon up the courage to say we鈥檙e not going along with this agenda anymore,鈥� an agenda he describes as weakening the region鈥檚 commitment to democratic principles and to expanding prosperity.

Venezuela鈥檚 post-Ch谩vez presidential election will be a test of those commitments. Senior State Department officials say the US will 鈥渃ontinue to speak out鈥� whenever 鈥渄emocratic principles鈥� are violated.

One clue to prospects for improved relations will be in how such observations are received.