海角大神

Dick Morris is out at Fox News, but Karl Rove is in.

The future of the republic does not hinge on this development, but the divergence in the conservative commentators鈥� fates is nevertheless telling. Both, after all, had issued spectacularly wrong predictions on who would win last November鈥檚 presidential race. (Mitt Romney in a landslide!) Both were adamant, night after night, that their data were rock solid.

On election night, Mr. Rove went so far as to challenge Fox News鈥� decision to call Ohio for President Obama, which effectively called the election. In the most entertaining bit of TV all night, Fox鈥檚 cameras followed while anchor Megyn Kelly led Rove back into the bowels of the network鈥檚 political operations to talk to the number-crunchers about their decision.

But while being entertaining (and therefore profitable) certainly matters at Fox 鈥� as with all the cable news channels 鈥� it doesn鈥檛 explain why Fox gave Rove a new, multiyear contract and dropped Mr. Morris, as reported Tuesday night by Politico. The reason is more about relevance and how the network is positioning itself, say analysts of political media.

鈥淜arl Rove is still a major player in Republican Party politics,鈥� says Jeffrey Jones, a professor of media and politics at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va.聽 鈥淗e still runs his 'super PAC,' and he has shown himself to be important and influential. Dick Morris doesn鈥檛 get you anything. He鈥檚 not really a player.鈥�

Indeed, in the last election, Rove鈥檚 two outside groups 鈥� American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS 鈥� spent upwards of $125 million on TV ads opposing Mr. Obama and supporting GOP presidential nominee Romney, not to mention the other Republican candidates the groups supported (albeit with limited success).

Rove originally made his name as the architect of George W. Bush鈥檚 two successful presidential campaigns. Morris gained fame as an adviser to President Clinton, most notably schooling him on the art of political 鈥渢riangulation鈥� after the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994. But Morris hasn鈥檛 had a big second act like Rove鈥檚.

Mr. Jones also sees in Fox鈥檚 personnel decisions 鈥� including, too, the decision to drop Sarah Palin 鈥� an effort by the network to update its brand.

鈥淚t鈥檚 time for fresh faces,鈥� Jones says, noting a decline in Fox鈥檚 ratings among a key demographic. 聽

One figure who has moved to Fox (from CNN) is Erick Erickson, a 30-something conservative blogger at RedState.com. And adding a jolt of ideological diversity to Fox is left-wing former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) of Ohio.

Fox is still the king of cable news 鈥� nine of the top 10 programs in January were on Fox 鈥� but, as rival network MSNBC points out, Fox hit a 12-year low with the 25-to-54 age group in prime time last month.

Another aspect of Fox鈥檚 recent moves may be ideological. In keeping Rove but parting company with Morris and former Governor Palin, Fox seems to be leaning toward the Republican establishment and away from the tea party. Rove recently started a new super political action committee called the Conservative Victory Project, which aims to help electable candidates win Republican primaries. In the last two cycles, tea party-backed candidates have cost the Republicans several Senate seats.

Rove also appears to have a close connection to Fox News Chairman and CEO Roger Ailes. In a recent article on Palin鈥檚 departure from Fox, Gabriel Sherman of New York Magazine writes that the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee was a 鈥減olarizing presence鈥� and presented Mr. Ailes with a management challenge. 聽聽

鈥淗er tea party message attracted the ire of establishment poobahs like Karl Rove,鈥� writes Mr. Sherman. 鈥淏efore the 2010 midterms, Rove complained to Ailes that Palin was damaging the GOP brand and getting too much airtime.鈥�

And what about Morris鈥檚 future? Perhaps he will share that information on CNN Wednesday, when he appears on 鈥淧iers Morgan Tonight.鈥澛�