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For Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican Senate primary Tuesday is all about survival.

Mr. Cruz, the former Texas solicitor general and a tea party favorite, is vying to succeed Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison.

To get there, he and Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert have to hold the front-runner and establishment favorite, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, under 50 percent of the vote Tuesday. That would force a runoff between the two top vote getters in two months time.

With polls showing Mr. Dewhurst hovering right under the 50 percent mark and with Cruz well ahead of Mr. Leppert for second place, the election could go a long way toward determining whether Cruz is remembered as a tumbleweed before the steel train of the Texas GOP establishment or, perhaps, the next tea party candidate to successfully hog-tie a seemingly unbeatable front-runner.

Cruz has an uphill battle even after Tuesday. According to a Public Policy Polling survey released last week, Dewhurst would merit 59 percent support versus 35 percent for Cruz in a mano-a-mano runoff.

But there are markers that Cruz could overcome even that steep polling cliff given his conservative bona fides and legion of tea party backers. If he is successful, he could be part of the wave of deeply conservative and uncompromising members of the House and Senate storming Capitol Hill.

The runoff

If Cruz survives to a runoff, some of his supporters who have not gone all-in on the race would have reason to open their checkbooks. Second, a runoff gives Cruz more time to introduce himself to Texas voters 鈥� as a former government lawyer who has never held an elected office, he鈥檚 way behind Dewhurst and Leppert in familiarity to most Texans.

And third, a runoff in the smothering heat of a Texas summer cuts back on voters with the least conviction 鈥� and if you support Ted Cruz, you鈥檙e probably willing to brave a lot more than a little sun to get to the ballot box.

A look at Cruz鈥檚 resume helps explain his appeal to tea party conservatives.

The son of a Cuban political refugee who came to Texas with $100 sewn into his underwear, Cruz was a master debater as an undergraduate at Princeton before an honors-filled tour at Harvard Law School.

From there, Cruz clerked with conservative Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist and served in two legal posts within the George W. Bush administration before heading back to Texas. When, in 2003, he became Texas solicitor general, Cruz was the youngest person and first Hispanic to hold the post. He finished his term in 2008, having managed to argue cases that are catnip to conservative voters: US sovereignty against world courts, the Second Amendment, a controversial Texas monument to the Ten Commandments, and the constitutionality of the phrase 鈥渦nder God鈥� in the Pledge of Allegiance.

For the GOP鈥檚 most conserative members, Cruz is 鈥渁 candidate as good as it gets,鈥� to use conservative columnist George Will鈥檚 phrasing.聽

鈥淟et me just say that he embodies everything a Reagan conservative believes in,鈥� wrote Jay Nordlinger at the conservative National Review. 鈥淗e can talk like no one鈥檚 business 鈥� he can put into words what we all want to say, and what we all want others to know. The Left can鈥檛 lay a glove on him. He鈥檚 a doer, too 鈥� as he has proven in the Supreme Court, for example.鈥�

Cruz鈥檚 crew

It鈥檚 that biography fused with positions like supporting a balanced-budget amendment and the full repeal of President Obama鈥檚 health-care law that have drawn an outpouring of support from many of the GOP鈥檚 most conservative leaders.

Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum are both Cruz backers. In the Senate, tea party godfather Jim DeMint (R) of South Carolina threw his weight (and financial contributions from his political action committee) behind Cruz. Senator DeMint鈥檚 like-minded sitting senators Pat Toomey (R) of Pennsylvania, Mike Lee (R) of Utah, and Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky are all in Cruz鈥檚 corner 鈥� as is Senator Paul鈥檚 father, Rep. Ron Paul (R) of Texas.

And then there are the activist groups like the Club for Growth, Freedom Works, and the Tea Party Express that are all backing his cause.

Together, that鈥檚 a lot of activist muscle. In comparison, Dewhurst can claim former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, still a renowned GOP figure. But Dewhurt鈥檚 endorsement page reads more like the RSVPs for an A-list Austin lobbying shindig than Cruz鈥檚 bonfire of national tea party leaders: Texas Oil and Gas PAC, Texas Restaurant Association, Texas Medical Association, Texas State Association of Fire Fighters, etc.

鈥淚t鈥檚 clear that Dewhurst and his allies have become desperate to avoid a runoff with Ted Cruz, because they know that David Dewhurst doesn鈥檛 come close to comparing with Ted Cruz on the issues,鈥� said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola in announcing the club had spent nearly $2 million on the race earlier this month. 鈥淭ed Cruz is a principled conservative who will fight the big-spenders in both parties, while David Dewhurst is an establishment moderate who will fight conservatives in Washington just like he鈥檚 done in Austin.鈥�

Completing the trifecta?

Following Richard Mourdock鈥檚 landslide Republican primary victory over incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar in Indiana and Deb Fischer鈥檚 drubbing of the establishment Republican candidate in Nebraska, tea party groups and the Republican Party鈥檚 most conservative activists have two solid chances at increasing their number in the Senate. Cruz would certainly be a third.

The effect of Cruz鈥檚 election 鈥� strongly likely if he wins the runoff, given Texas鈥� conservative electorate 鈥� would be to swell the number of the GOP鈥檚 most unbending, most conservative wing to almost double-digits, or closing in on a quarter of the party caucus.

And from there Cruz and Mourdock, particularly, are of one mind about where the Senate needs to go: less compromise.

鈥淲hat we need in the Senate is a fighter,鈥� Cruz told a town hall last year. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 need another establishment, career politician that鈥檚 going to put his arm around the Democrats and keep compromising in growing the size and spending and power of the federal government.鈥�