海角大神

Ask Steve Ingersol, a 30-something waiter at Applebee鈥檚 near Akron, Ohio, how he鈥檚 going to vote in November, and he shrugs.

鈥淣o matter who the president is, it鈥檚 just someone to blame stuff on,鈥� says Mr. Ingersol, a registered Republican who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 because he thought it would be 鈥渃ool鈥� to have a black president. This time, he says, his vote is a coin toss.

Ingersol doesn鈥檛 know it, but he鈥檚 a hot commodity in Ohio, part of a key demographic 鈥� the white working class 鈥� in what could be the decisive state of the 2012 race. If the upper Midwest, from Iowa to Pennsylvania, is the premier battleground region of the country, then Ohio is ground zero. While Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania lean Democratic, Ohio and Iowa are tossups. And with 18 electoral votes (to Iowa鈥檚 six), Ohio has more power to swing the outcome.

Chances are, between now and Nov. 6, Ingersol will hear plenty more about his choices. The TV airwaves are already crackling with political ads. The local Portage County Tea Party is armed with voter lists for door-to-door canvassing and phone calls. The unions, too, are revving up. And both the Obama and Romney teams are on track to set up more campaign offices around Ohio than did any previous nominees.

For Mr. Obama, winning Ohio isn鈥檛 essential to reaching 270 electoral votes. But it is for Mitt Romney. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying Ohio.

Last week alone, Obama, Mr. Romney, and Vice President Joe Biden all made campaign appearances in Ohio. First lady Michelle Obama heads to Columbus and Dayton on Tuesday.

And it comes as no surprise that three of Romney鈥檚 top campaign surrogates and potential running mates are from the upper Midwest 鈥� starting with Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, a former George W. Bush budget director. The others are Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

鈥淸Senator Portman] is worth three to five points in Ohio,鈥� says Ohio GOP chairman Bob Bennett, who has been talking up his state鈥檚 junior senator with Romney. 鈥淚ndependents like Portman. And Democrats don鈥檛 get mad at him.鈥�

Where every vote matters

Rare is the running mate who can swing a state, but in a battleground as tight as Ohio, every vote matters. Four years ago, Obama won the state by just 4.6 percentage points, even as he was winning Wisconsin by 14 points and Michigan by 16. This year, his margins are down everywhere.

And with most voters already in one or the other camp, 鈥淥hio will be decided by 5 to 8 percent of its electorate,鈥� says Rex Elsass, one of the top GOP admen in the United States, based near Columbus, Ohio.

Which brings us back to Ingersol, the Applebee鈥檚 waiter. In some ways, he鈥檚 the quintessential white working-class voter 鈥� a tough demographic for Obama in 2008 and even more so now. Ingersol is a single dad with no health insurance. But he鈥檚 so busy with work and family that the new health-care law is barely on his radar. And it may not be enough to bring him back to Obama.

鈥淚鈥檝e only been to the doctor once in the last 13 years,鈥� Ingersol says proudly, suggesting he can do without insurance. (His kids are covered on their mother鈥檚 plan.)

In the Obama campaign鈥檚 Zanesville office, it鈥檚 health care that drew 23-year-old Chase Flowers to volunteer full time 鈥� specifically, the fact that the new law allows his parents to cover him and his sister.

鈥淚 tell people that health-care reform kills two birds with one stone,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 controlling health-care costs and helping people with their health.鈥�

But to other Ohioans, 鈥渞epeal Obamacare鈥� is the ultimate rallying cry of the election. On a recent Tuesday evening, some 200 members of the Portage County Tea Party gathered near Akron for a candidates鈥� forum and then a pep talk from executive director Tom Zawistowski. Along the back of the room, 5,700 pages of voter names and contact information supplied by the Romney campaign were stacked on tables, waiting for volunteers to take.

Despite the tea party鈥檚 ambivalence about Romney, there鈥檚 no doubt that on defeating Obama and the state鈥檚 senior senator, Sherrod Brown (D) 鈥� two steps toward undoing the health-care law 鈥� they鈥檙e on the same page.

鈥淲e鈥檙e at war with the Republican Party in some ways: It鈥檚 not as conservative as we鈥檇 like it to be,鈥� says Mr. Zawistowski, who is also president of the statewide Ohio Liberty Coalition. 鈥淏ut we鈥檙e working together on get-out-the-vote. They have resources that we don鈥檛 have.鈥�

In his speech to his local tea party, exhorting members to canvass their neighbors, he gets choked up.

鈥淭he Supreme Court punted,鈥� Zawistowski says. 鈥淭hey kicked it back to the legislature, to the American people.... My destiny, our destiny is in our hands. I thank God I live in Ohio. I want to fight this fight with you. We will decide.鈥�

Collective-bargaining backlash

One of the biggest questions hanging over Ohio is what kind of residual impact there may be from last year鈥檚 battle over public-sector unions. Gov. John Kasich (R) took office in January 2011 vowing to curb collective-bargaining rights in an effort to balance the state budget. But when the law passed, the backlash was fierce 鈥� particularly so because, unlike in Wisconsin, it included police and firefighter unions.

Suddenly, traditionally Republican-leaning unions had common cause with their liberal union brethren. Last November, their efforts paid off: Ohio voters repealed the collective-bargaining law with 61 percent of the vote.

鈥淸The law] was probably an overreach,鈥� says GOP chair Bennett. But 鈥渨e were outspent 2-1/2 to 1.鈥�

Governor Kasich remains unpopular 鈥� a blow to Romney鈥檚 chances in Ohio, Democrats say 鈥� even though statewide unemployment has steadily declined to 7.2 percent in June, a percentage point below the national average. But it鈥檚 too soon to say whether the police and firefighters will stick with the more liberal unions in supporting Obama in 2012, despite Romney鈥檚 anti-union positions.

鈥淚t鈥檚 going to take some work. I wouldn鈥檛 say it鈥檚 an automatic thing,鈥� says Robert Davis, political director of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Ohio Council 8 in Columbus. Even the membership of his own union, he says, is one-third Republican.

For Senator Brown, support for unions has already paid off. Last Tuesday, the state Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) endorsed Brown against Republican challenger Josh Mandel, the first time the organization has backed a Democrat for the US Senate since 1988.

The Ohio FOP has yet to state a choice to the national FOP for a presidential endorsement, but Romney鈥檚 support for the anti-union ballot measure last October, along with the union鈥檚 Senate endorsement, does not bode well for him. Republicans say that the police union鈥檚 political preferences are all about labor issues, not about how the rank and file will vote.

One issue that clearly boosts Obama is his 2009 bailout of the auto industry. One out of 8 Ohio jobs is auto-industry related; 80 of the state鈥檚 88 counties contain auto supply manufacturers.

Still, there鈥檚 no denying that the sputtering economic recovery casts a shadow over all else in Ohio, as it does nationally. Ohio ranks ninth in the nation on home foreclosures. And if the battle for Ohio boils down to the southeastern, Appalachian part of the state, Obama could be in real trouble. Coal is king there, and the Environmental Protection Agency鈥檚 new regulations on coal-fired power-plant emissions are deeply unpopular.

Southeastern Ohio is also socially conservative 鈥� no to gay marriage and abortion, yes to guns 鈥� which is another strike against Obama. But it鈥檚 also economically liberal in its support of the social safety net. That鈥檚 why some political observers call it Ohio鈥檚 ultimate swing area.

Former Gov. Ted Strickland (D), who represented southeastern Ohio in Congress for 12 years, says he won鈥檛 deny that coal will sway some voters. 鈥淏ut it won鈥檛 be the determinative factor,鈥� he says. 鈥淎ll along the Ohio River, where steel mills have closed, I think the outsourcing of jobs is a more powerful issue in a generic kind of sense.鈥�

A long winning streak

Ultimately, the battle for Ohio will be waged statewide. From the liberal northeast to the conservative southwest, the Buckeye State is in many ways a microcosm of the country. One exception is its small Hispanic population. But for now, Ohio is the reigning bellwether in presidential politics: It has voted for the winner every time since 1964, the longest streak of all 50 states.

When ads funded by outside groups are included, Team Obama expects to be outspent on TV and is banking on its ground game. Four years ago, the Obama campaign opened more than 100 offices around the state. This time, the campaign plans to outdo that. State campaign director Greg Schultz has been on the job since March 2009.

The Romney campaign, delayed by a tough primary battle, has had to play catch-up. As of July 16, there were 23 joint Romney鈥揜epublican National Committee 鈥渧ictory centers鈥� in Ohio versus 36 Obama for America offices. All told, Romney and the RNC plan more than 60 or 70 victory centers, says a Republican source.

But it鈥檚 not the number of offices that matters, says the Romney campaign. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 clear is we are going to be able to match Barack Obama volunteer for volunteer, door-knock for door-knock, phone call for phone call between now and November,鈥� says Christopher Maloney, spokesman for the Romney campaign in Ohio.

What鈥檚 also clear is that Romney can鈥檛 match Obama as a stump performer. As of July 24, the president and his top surrogates 鈥� Mr. Biden and Mrs. Obama 鈥� will have been here 47 times since Obama鈥檚 election. Biden may be his secret weapon, the 鈥渟crapper from Scranton鈥� who can speak to white, working-class voters in a way that the Obamas can鈥檛.

All those Obama visits play right into Romney鈥檚 hands, says Mr. Elsass of the Strategy Group for Media, the GOP ad firm. 鈥淏arack Obama,鈥� he says, 鈥渆nergizes our base in a way that Mitt Romney can鈥檛.鈥�

In a sign that Democrats will let no challenge to their ground game go unanswered, the Obama campaign filed a federal lawsuit last Tuesday against Ohio election officials, saying new restrictions halting early voting three days before the election are unconstitutional.

The Obama campaign, joined by the Democratic National Committee and the Ohio Democratic Party, says the new rule is unfair, since military and overseas voters are allowed to vote in person until the day before the election. Four years ago, the Obama campaign saw early voting as crucial to winning Ohio.