海角大神

Tesla doesn鈥檛 rely much on traditional advertising. If it did, your local dealership would likely be renting a blow-up AirDancer and declaring that 鈥渢here has never been a better time to buy!鈥�

On Monday, the electric car company announced that it would cut the base price of its Model S Sedan by $5,000, meaning that Tesla鈥檚 least expensive model now comes in at $69,500. Its Model 3, set to begin production later this year, will come in at a far cheaper $35,000. Buyers of both cars will also qualify for a听$7,500 federal tax credit, introduced in 2010 to nurture the electric-car industry, and additional incentives in some states.听

But in car dealer-speak, 鈥渢hese deals won鈥檛 last!鈥� The federal tax credit begins to phase out when a firm delivers its 200,000th electric vehicle (EV), and analysts expect Tesla to reach that milestone sometime next year.

Some expect the end of this credit to spell trouble for the company. In a report published earlier this month, auto-industry analyst firm Edmunds noted that after Georgia withdrew a $5,000 EV sales credit 鈥� one of the highest in the country 鈥� sales of the electric Nissan Leaf tanked in the state. On the national level, the firm predicted that 鈥渨ithout these credits, this market is likely to crash.鈥�

Other auto industry analysts, however, advise taking a broader perspective. The consumer tax credit, they point out, is just one of several policies and market factors guiding Tesla and its competitors on the road to mass market.

鈥淚 don't view the tax credit as existential to Tesla,鈥� says Salim Morsy, an advanced transport analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in a phone interview with 海角大神. 鈥淜eep in mind that the electric vehicle tax credit is one of many schemes that support the electric vehicle industry."

鈥淭he tax credit is certainly helpful,鈥� Mr. Morsy continues, 鈥渂ut Tesla's appeal is not due to the tax credit.鈥�

Since its Roadster debuted in 2008 with a $109,000听base price, Tesla has focused on the auto market鈥檚 uppermost reaches. 听The average Tesla owner has an average income of $271,000, reports听Clean Technica. For buyers who can afford the current price range, Morsy observes,听鈥渁 $7,500 rebate is not material.鈥�

But with the Model 3 and its $35,000 starting price, Tesla aims to grow its market share. As the Monitor听reported last November, the company aims to 鈥渂oost annual car production 10-fold over the next couple of years, growing from 50,000 vehicles produced in 2015 to 500,000 in 2018.鈥� At the time, 400,000 customers had already joined a waitlist for the Model 3.听

However, they haven't yet bought those cars. When the 200,000th Tesla is sold, the tax credit will begin to phase out.

In its report, Edmunds cast credits as necessary for the mass-market. During the 2011-2015 model years, the average selling price for a Nissan Leaf ranged between $30,000 and $37,000.听

Noting that Tesla sales had held steady 鈥� and been much lower 鈥� in Georgia throughout this period, even as the state's credit expired and the Leaf's sales sank, Edmunds concluded that 鈥渢he high-end market is able to weather price manipulations more so than the mainstream market due to their buyers' higher incomes and desire for a status vehicle.鈥�

Bloomberg New Energy Finance鈥檚 Mr. Morsy suggests that while the Model 3 will have broader appeal, it won鈥檛 be so 鈥渕ainstream鈥� as to need a tax credit to survive. Describing it as an 鈥渆ntry luxury car,鈥� on par with the BMW 3 series or the Mercedes C class, he says that 鈥淚t's still in a market that's out of reach for most buyers in the US, so those buying the vehicle can probably stomach a removal of the tax credit.鈥�

And even when the last Tesla-related IRS rebate is claimed, other modes of government support may keep driving EV costs down.

鈥淎s tax credits phase out at the federal income tax level, that's not the same as saying all subsidies for electric vehicles are being erased,鈥� explains James Sallee, assistant professor at the University of California鈥揃erkeley鈥檚 department of agricultural and resource economics.

鈥淭here鈥檚 these pretty substantial things, in the background, that are probably at least as potent as the tax credits.鈥� In 2013, Resources for the Future鈥檚 Virginia McConnell and Joshua Linn wrote that 鈥渋mplicit subsidies to manufacturers under [federal fuel-economy] rules are roughly a couple thousand per vehicle.鈥� Other initiatives, like California鈥檚 Zero-Emissions Vehicle program, also 鈥渃reate very strong incentives.鈥�

Will these programs pay off? Professor Sallee, whose research focuses on automotive policy, says it鈥檚 hard to parse the connection between subsidies and lower car prices. But he sees one metric as key to EVs鈥� future: 鈥淭he batteries need to get cheaper ... if you really want electric vehicles to be a mass car.鈥�

Battery costs have already fallen from $1,000 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to $227 today. Tesla claims to be at $190, and hopes that its new Nevada 鈥淕igafactory鈥� will bring costs down even further.

While Morsy cautions that Tesla could face logistical and technical challenges as the Model 3 ramps up production, he doubts that the end of one tax credit will kill the industry鈥檚 momentum. 鈥淲ithin the next five to seven years...,鈥� he predicts, 鈥渆lectric vehicles will be priced at parity or below internal combustion engines.鈥�

[Editor's note:听This article has been updated to correctly state the Mercedes class that the Model 3 compares with]