海角大神

From oil prices and economic growth rates to the value of the British pound, a host of indicators turned more volatile on June 24 as聽a small majority of Britain鈥檚 citizens voted in a nationwide referendum to leave the European Union.

But one of the most confounding questions to come out of the vote could be on the front of climate change.

Specifically, the questions are how Britain and continental Europe will separate their climate and energy policies 颅鈥� and whether those policies will stay on track toward carbon-reduction goals agreed half a year ago, as countries of the European Union banded together to negotiate a major international climate treaty.

It鈥檚 now unclear whether Britain will ratify the historic Paris climate treaty at the same time as the rest of the union鈥檚 members. The impact of 鈥淏rexit,鈥� the British vote to exit the EU, is also potentially destabilizing on Europe鈥檚 Energy Union.

What鈥檚 clearest, experts say, is that major decisions will be stalled as bureaucrats and politicians on both sides of the English Channel determine what comes next.

鈥淓U ratification of the Paris Climate treaty may be delayed by Brexit,鈥� says Maria Castellina, senior media officer at the environmental non-profit Friends of the Earth-UK. 鈥淲ith the UK leaving the EU, our contribution to meeting the targets will no longer be included, and how that effort will be shared out amongst the other countries will take time to work out.鈥�

In just a few weeks, the European Commission was expected to present its聽plan for how all 28-member states would work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Now the presentation will probably be put on hold while it鈥檚 determined whether Britain will continue to work toward that common target.

Moreover, huge questions hang in the air regarding Britain鈥檚 participation in the European carbon emissions trading scheme, and whether the country will continue to work toward the EU goal to provide 20 percent of its power from renewable energy sources by 2020.

The outcome of these decisions could weaken the climate commitments of both Britain and EU, some advocates of emissions cuts say.

鈥淭he UK is already off track in terms of meeting the EU鈥檚 renewable energy targets. Leaving the EU may mean we no longer have to comply with the renewables directive, so Brexit could badly stall any possibility of getting the stronger policies we need,鈥� says Ms Castellina.

Previously one of the most vocal EU member states calling for cuts to carbon emissions, Britain will no longer be in a position to pressure the rest of Europe to meet targets to keep global warming at 1.5 C below pre-industrial levels, she adds.

A reset in London

A key reason: 聽In response to the Brexit campaign鈥檚 success, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced his intention to resign from office, casting doubt on the future of the current government鈥檚 domestic energy policies, too. Cameron had pledged to聽phase out coal-run power plants by 2025. But will that happen under the new government?

Amber Rudd, Secretary for Energy and Climate Change since the Conservative Party鈥檚 parliamentary victory in 2015, was a fervent supporter of Britain remaining in the EU and of Britain鈥檚 participation in the Paris climate treaty. 聽But Ms. Rudd will almost certainly follow Cameron when he leaves office. It鈥檚 unclear who will be take her place, or whether a climate change portfolio will exist in the next government, experts say.

Many of the main faces of the Brexit campaign,聽including Boris Johnson, London鈥檚 grandiloquent former mayor, are known climate change skeptics. On Thursday Justice Secretary Michael Gove, a leading architect of the Brexit, announced his plans to campaign for the premiership. Just three years ago, during his time as education secretary, Mr. Gove also campaigned to聽remove climate change from school curriculum. Other 鈥淏rexiters鈥� have called to聽completely abolish the country鈥檚 landmark Climate Change Act.

Meanwhile, the EU was instrumental in pushing forward numerous environmental protection laws in Britain, including laws that put limits on pollution from power plants, established rules for cleaning up beaches, and set regulations for recycling and waste management. Limits on overfishing and the use of harmful pesticides will also need to be rewired once Britain is outside the EU.

Given the narrowness of the Brexit vote and an outpouring of public anxiety over the decision in the past week, it鈥檚 not clear what form Britain鈥檚 next government will take. What鈥檚 clear in any case is the uncertainty that now reigns.

鈥淲ith over 70 percent of our environmental laws coming from Europe, it鈥檚 vital that UK rules are put in place to protect our wildlife and nature,鈥� Sam Lowe, a campaigner at Friends of the Earth-UK, said in a statement.

Some experts say they are unconvinced Britain鈥檚 politicians would have implemented these laws without EU pressure, or that they will do so again on their own.

Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), and perhaps the most visible proponent of a Brexit,聽does not support limits on pollution from power stations. He鈥檚 also called for the country鈥檚 Department of Energy and Climate Change to be completely scrapped.

What鈥檚 more, some observers say the Brexit could spark a hydraulic fracturing boom. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a form of natural gas extraction widely criticized by environmentalists, is currently regulated by the European Union. Brexit could give the industry carte blanche to develop, experts say, at least until the country puts its own regulations on the books.

The UK鈥檚 auto industry will also be impacted by the break with Brussels. Currently, EU safety standards and environmental rules allow manufacturers based in Britain to sell their vehicles anywhere in the EU鈥檚 common market. Now, however, a whole new set of regulations will have to be hammered out. This will likely make international trade and business more cumbersome, and could negatively impact the environmental protection rules the industry is currently forced to follow.

And perhaps most important for consumers, the Brexit could cause energy prices in Britain to rise and investment in clean energy to fall, experts say

鈥淭here is more market uncertainty because people don鈥檛 know what the regulatory environment is or what the investment climate will be,鈥� says Tom Cunningham, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Global Energy Center.

鈥淚f the UK is not part of a broader energy market then it will not benefit from being fully integrated into a larger body of energy consumers,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎nd the bigger the market the more competitive it can be, the lower the prices.鈥�

No instant breakup

Still, even if the Britain begins the process to exit the EU immediately, it will take several years for the country to extricate itself completely. In order for the process to begin, the British government must trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the constitutional basis of the EU. Officials on both sides of the Brexit debate say it鈥檚 likely that won鈥檛 happen until October when Cameron is expected to step down.

Meanwhile, EU officials are adamant that no negotiations will take place until article 50 is triggered, meaning the status quo will persist for now. Climate advocates say they鈥檙e hopeful the Paris climate treaty will be ratified before Britain makes its official exit. 聽

鈥淚n general until the UK has notified and concluded its negotiations on its relationship with the EU, the UK remains a member of the EU and will in principle have to comply with its entire aquis [obligations] like the other 27 member states,鈥� says Philippa Jones, communications manager at the European Environmental Bureau, adding that it is too early to judge how a Brexit will impact the EU鈥檚 climate ambitions.

In the wake of the referendum, influential companies like Shell and British Petroleum said they will continue working in Britain for the time being. Plans for the Hinkley C power plant, a new nuclear reactor in Somerset, will also go forward.

Speaking at a conference on business and climate change on Wednesday, Secretary Rudd said the French energy company building the Hinkley power plant was 鈥渁bsolutely committed鈥� to making a final investment decision. 聽

鈥淲e are still full tilt on Hinkley Point,鈥澛爏he added.

And despite the hype, Mr. Cunningham says the biggest energy infrastructure projects are unlikely to be impacted by the Brexit

鈥淸Those] Energy investments are a 20 or 30 year project or longer,鈥� he says. 鈥淪o I think they鈥檒l be a little more resilient to the uncertainty.鈥�